bncho Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What's the panel before this look like? Thanks more zr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: EURO AI looks real nice. It may end up being wrong buts it's certainly been consistent Feels like it’s been showing pretty much the same solution for multiple runs now. Hopefully it’s on to something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 WB 12Z AI EPS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, bncho said: It's a slop storm, but boy does it drop a lot of slop Need that to come Bout 50 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z AI EPS Looks pretty solid. Only a few complete whiffs and I like seeing things to the north and others to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12z regular EPS does not agree with its Op run whatsoever. Here is the 3 day snow map as of next Monday am. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 22 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Feels like it’s been showing pretty much the same solution for multiple runs now. Hopefully it’s on to something. Run to run consistency can be important. I would feel better if the op Euro gave some support but as explained earlier today, tremendous differences exit between AI and physics based models. I would expect a general coming together within a few days. Unusual unpredictability also exists IMO because some rather strong signals suggest that we may be approaching a pattern change after persistent cold since late December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Snow maps galore. 50 miles east or west or north or south. A week out lol. Back to the other thread. I would rather talk to myself. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z regular EPS does not agree with its Op run whatsoever. Here is the 3 day snow map as of next Monday am. Here’s AI EPS 3 day snow map as of next Monday afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 52 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z AI EPS When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are? When they stop painting blue over them, ahem...I mean us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 When they stop painting blue over them, ahem...I mean us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Looking at the Eps, fwiw, there definitely is a signal for both next weekend and the Cape storm. 9 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Snippet from the LWX disco…. A stronger storm system may impact the area late next week (in particularly during the Thursday through Saturday timeframe). The cold front from Wednesday will stall down around the Gulf Coast states with several waves of low pressure set to caravan along it late next week into next weekend. The track and intensity of these low pressure systems remain uncertain as deterministic and ensemble guidance continue the "windshield wiper effect" of advertising a winter/rain storm or no storm across the region. Latest guidance suggest a system that passes just to the south and toward the coast with uncertainty in regards to temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts this far out. Continue to closely monitor the forecast as it will continue to change heading toward the Valentine`s Day holiday. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, snowfan said: Snippet from the LWX disco…. A stronger storm system may impact the area late next week (in particularly during the Thursday through Saturday timeframe). The cold front from Wednesday will stall down around the Gulf Coast states with several waves of low pressure set to caravan along it late next week into next weekend. The track and intensity of these low pressure systems remain uncertain as deterministic and ensemble guidance continue the "windshield wiper effect" of advertising a winter/rain storm or no storm across the region. Latest guidance suggest a system that passes just to the south and toward the coast with uncertainty in regards to temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts this far out. Continue to closely monitor the forecast as it will continue to change heading toward the Valentine`s Day holiday. Yeah. LWX does acknowledge the models being all over the place ( windshield wiper effect) . Models are crap a week out.. lately I don't know what model to even lean on . Gonna be a long week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are? I think they know but still lean on the one they want . That's natural when ur starving for a big winter storn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 42 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the Eps, fwiw, there definitely is a signal for both next weekend and the Cape storm. Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Yeah. LWX does acknowledge the models being all over the place ( windshield wiper effect) . Models are crap a week out.. lately I don't know what model to even lean on . Gonna be a long week Pattern is active and there is cold nearby. I’ll take it at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, bncho said: more zr ZR with the ECMWF really doesn't mean a lot. It forecasted .86" a week ago and I received .05" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors. We'll be lucky if it's not south of South Carolina the way things have been going this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GFS already a little different out west. Let's see how it fucks this up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We'll be lucky if it's not south of South Carolina the way things have been going this year. The modeling seems more of a warmish system. Will see mid week next week how things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS already a little different out west. Let's see how it fucks this up Prediction? RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, GreyHat said: The modeling seems more of a warmish system. Will see mid week next week how things look. Anything less than 4" is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Yeah, GFS still sucks for the for Valentine's Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, GFS still sucks for the for Valentine's Day Only a 1500 mile differnce between Euro and Gfs. Split the difference and were in the bullseye. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anything less than 4" is dry. I haven't seen 4", just warm rain again. I know it's not showing your snow anymore, so now you'll say it's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, GreyHat said: I haven't seen 4", just warm rain again. I know it's not showing your snow anymore, so now you'll say it's the GFS. You're right. The GFS is the superior model after all. Euro only showing about 1-2". Dry ass model. Good post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 one of the lamest 18z runs i can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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