February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Amped]

So the icon, Gfs,Aigfs, and Cmc don't show any snow for us.

[Steve25]

15 minutes ago, Amped said:

So the icon, Gfs,Aigfs, and Cmc don't show any snow for us.

Two show cutters, one shows nothing at all(GFS) and the other shows suppressed. 

[bncho]

The Euro AI will do it again, looks very similar to 18z

[bncho]

Extremely similar to 18z actually considering the lead time

[Ji]

Extremely similar to 18z actually considering the lead time

I lost 8 inches but ok

[Ji]

Euro looks surpressed at 500 ?

[Rnt1969]

These models suck. How did we predict weather before the models? Maybe we have to go back to that method? Can it be worse?


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[Steve25]

18 minutes ago, Rnt1969 said:

These models suck. How did we predict weather before the models? Maybe we have to go back to that method? Can it be worse?


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I imagine back in those days they weren’t really expecting any kind of accurate details 7+ days in advance. 

[jayyy]

I imagine back in those days they weren’t really expecting any kind of accurate details 7+ days in advance. 

People shouldn’t be expecting that now either.

[stormy]

The GFS signaled the trend with the 18z run when QP dropped significantly over Virginia.

After 18z, I was expecting 00z to be feast or famine.  Famine rules the roost.

 

[TowsonWeather]

 

44 minutes ago, Rnt1969 said:

These models suck. How did we predict weather before the models? Maybe we have to go back to that method? Can it be worse?


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An OP run changes 7-10 days out and that’s your bar? LOL…

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z AI EPS.  Not a lot of support for its steady global AI.

[LordBaltimore]

Euro really moderating the warmup which is a nice surprise. Snowpack till late February?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 the 2 times recently we got significant Atlantic side help during the 2nd half of the winter during a -PNA period we did stay cold and somewhat snowy. Late Jan early Feb 2021 and March 2018. I don’t think the blocking coming up will equal those two BUT we have a much colder antecedent airmass also so those two might wash out.  

I just don't think it's that negative of a NAO. It's pretty negative the next few days when the EPO goes raging positive, but then it lets up... I mean it is your coming out of -NAO storm, but you don't want that big trough in the SW. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Uh oh you just sent up the batsignal to  @Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, I don't want that big negative anomaly on south Alaska/NW Canada. It takes some time to bring back a good pattern after that. I think the last few days of Feb may shift back, but the decadal signal 2018-2025 -PNA is so strong.. I wonder if it will just keep going. 

[mitchnick]

The Eps, Gefs and Geps snowfall thru day 10 look supportive of a storm favoring western locations (similar to EuroAI to my eyes). Geps is the look we've seen all winter favoring VA. How long until the Eps and Gefs look like Geps? Lol

[Weather Will]

6Z GFS has nothing like the EURO AI.  The 6Z GFS AI improved but still too warm and weaker than EURO AI.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EURO still has the storm but it ticked NW this run.

[GreyHat]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EURO still has the storm but it ticked NW this run.

Looks lovely,  as the models went from the snow to a nice warm up. Some 6z gave no qpf like the GFS, others like the AIGFS and GEFS gave qpf with warm temps and a little snow to wet your appetite. 

 

That cold is locked up in Canada

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EURO still has the storm but it ticked NW this run.

Similar result to what the GfsAI would likely look like cobbling together the TT maps.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EURO

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EURO

Clear as mud what will happen with that many outcome possibilities

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EURO

Lots of feasts or famine on individual members. 

[Chris78]

9 hours ago, Interstate said:

That is a lot of temp maps

And the maps are from 2 days after the potential storm lol.

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

And the maps are from 2 days after the potential storm lol.

You need to show a few day window for timing differences at this range…

[WxUSAF]

You all have been paying more attention to this than I, but it seems there's an interesting difference between the physics-based models and the AI models in the overnight runs.  Physics-models all have a weak northern stream shortwave pop a low that gives some snow to VA (again...) around Friday.  Then they sort of shred the Baja low and don't bring it out coherently.  AI models don't have that weak northern stream s/w that gives VA snow on Friday and bring the Baja low out more coherently, especially Euro AI.  

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

You need to show a few day window for timing differences at this range…

For temps lol?

Posting of a 6 hour max temp panel when the potential storm wrapped up 2 days prior doesn't really have alot to do with what type of precip the storm is going to deliver. 

I don't think we're on the same page as to what I was alluding to lol.

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

For temps lol?

Posting of a 6 hour max temp panel when the potential storm wrapped up 2 days prior doesn't really have alot to do with what type of precip the storm is going to deliver. 

I don't think we're on the same page as to what I was alluding to lol.

Sorry, I need coffee! I thought you were referring to the snow maps.

 

[CAPE]

For the upcoming weekend threat, the majority of the members on the GEFS have a low tracking into the OV, then coastal transfer- but exactly where is a crapshoot. Some right over us, some further north, some along the NC coast. Plenty of spread. All the snow maps tell you at this point is that it is possible for it to snow somewhere in the region.

Mixed bag on the EPS but a low moving across the south and off the SE coast is most prominent.