Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, IceQueen706 said:

If this has been answered already, sorry for asking again, but having conflicting radars.  In Clayton, GA in Rabun County.  Shows we will be getting thunderstorms in some future radars and others are showing freezing rain.  Which is correct??

Both maybe. It will all depend on your exact temp. Part of county will likely be just above freezing by then part not. No guarantee on thunder but definitely a stronger line of convective showers than seen so far regardless.

[AirNelson39]

What app?

Weatherbug, great maps. Just toggle the temp layer

[lilj4425]

So was this was a bust or a win? 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

So was this was a bust or a win? 

Neither yet. 

[DTP]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

100%. And I won't comment further on this specific incident after this post... But when I saw the incident, i was immediately reminded American Airlines Flight 191 In Chicago (As you stated) . Turns out it was exactly that. 

So it's beyond Boeings fault, it's pure negligence, because this EXACT scenario caused the United States deadliest aircraft  passenger accident in 1979.

Basically opens the door to a spiral of deviation- never ends well....

[NCSU_Pi]

22° with very light flurries in Cary, near Kildaire and Cary Pkwy.

[Blacksburg Coach]

Still 14f IMBY

These river valleys take forever to warm up, there will probably be several deep valleys in Virginia that don't make it out of the teens when this final push comes through 

[yotaman]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So was this was a bust or a win? 

Busy for us on the coastal plain. Went from 2 feet of snow to less than a tenth of an inch of ice.

[AirNelson39]

Radarscope Pro tier also has a nice temp map. Here’s a gif from 7am to current of the CAD

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So was this was a bust or a win? 

For Raleigh I’d say both: win without an ice storm but bust bc with precip and an over performing wedge this would’ve been an awesome sleet storm

[Blue Ridge]

Mesoscale Discussion 0059

Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina...and parts of western North Carolina

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 251757Z - 252200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy freezing rain is expected between 19Z and 23Z this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Persistent cold air damming persists in the lee of the Appalachians and into northern Georgia. An expansive area of stratiform rain will overspread this cold air this afternoon and result in moderate to heavy freezing rain.

Heavy precipitation rates will likely warm temperatures a few degrees which may limit freezing rain efficiency in areas that are currently 31-32F. However, where temperatures are currently in the 20s, northeast of Atlanta and eastward, expect below freezing temperatures to persist within the wedge. Additionally, a meso-low, analyzed on the 17Z surface chart in east-central Alabama, will move east into central Georgia which will alleviate any chance for erosion of the cold wedge and perhaps reinforce the westerly flow across northern Georgia.

As a result, moderate to heavy precipitation with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will result in significant ice accumulation between 19Z and 23Z from northeast Georgia into western South Carolina and into portions of southeast North Carolina. Given the expectation for relatively efficient ice accretion and QPF of 0.5 to 0.7 inches, expect another 0.25" to 0.5" of ice accretion this afternoon and early evening.
 

[KrummWx]

One of the most embarrassing busts I've ever talked about since I started model-watching in 2009.

[NCSU_Pi]

Glazing on the trees and grass here in Cary show we definitely got rain last night, but not enough to cause problems (yet). It's just enough to make everything beautiful.

[CentralNC]

This bad boy putting down some serious sleet at my house

[lilj4425]

Uh oh…

[audioguy3107]

Just saw the SPC's discussion...it's about to get real for Atlanta and points NE, we're sitting at 27 degrees with a DP of 26 and this on the way.  We've got about a quarter inch glaze/crust on the roads already, steady drizzle the last hour.  That's a lot of rain headed here.  The mesolow comment is interesting too, causing some helicity south of here as well which is increasing tornado chances for south Georgia and SE Alabama.  Looks like the CAD is gonna hold strong here during the duration.  

 

[StantonParkHoya]

I guess us downstream should get an idea of what to expect in the next couple of hours as this emerges in the GSP area


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[NEGA_Dawg]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Uh oh…

So, no chance of this being sleet like early this morning?  I have zero glaze at the moment. The temp will probably stick at 25 degrees when this arrives. 

[Tony Sisk]

9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Uh oh…

What is 19z

[NorthHillsWx]

Duke Energy brought in 18,000 workers for storm response and there are 342 total outages in the Carolina’s. Judge this event as you wish, just reporting the numbers 

[tarheelwx]

Just now, Tony Sisk said:

What is 19z

2pm

 

[tarheelwx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Duke Energy brought in 18,000 workers for storm response and there are 342 total outages in the Carolina’s 

That should cover it. Great service!

TW

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Duke Energy brought in 18,000 workers for storm response and there are 342 total outages in the Carolina’s. Judge this event as you wish, just reporting the numbers 

There’s a lot more outages than that. Thousands out in western NC: 

https://outagemap.duke-energy.com

[ForsythWx]

Pouring sleet near downtown Winston-Salem right now - 17 degrees still… 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

There’s a lot more outages than that. Thousands out in western NC: 

https://outagemap.duke-energy.com

Those are customers out. There are actually only 292 outages now. 1 outage affects more than 1 customer, think a tree falls and it takes out everything downstream 

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

What is 19z

Zulu or UTC time 

19z for today would be 1400 (2PM)

[USCG RS]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Those are customers out. There are actually only 292 outages now. 1 outage affects more than 1 customer, think a tree falls and it takes out everything downstream 

Helene at one point could have been considered one outage. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Helene at one point could have been considered one outage. 

Not true. Regardless there are only 12,000 customers without power. That’s not all all weather related either

[StantonParkHoya]

Guidance implies that line really skinnies up by the time it reaches Central NC regardless of precip type


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[sakau2007]

23 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

One of the most embarrassing busts I've ever talked about since I started model-watching in 2009.

what are you talking about? the vast majority of the precipitation hasn't arrived yet. do you really not see the radar returns in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee?