SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: We're in for some real sh*t if that's the case. Most guidance gets the fall line and SE at or above +5C as early as 11am tomorrow. Would love to see those studies if you have the links. I don't recall ever having a situation where there is a +7 to -8 swing in a single profile in this area. That is some southern high plains ice storm levels of cold air wedging. We do not see this here. Seems like multiple studies disagree with each other. One I read/skimmed said that if we have a freezing layer of 3000+ feet below the elevated warm layer it’ll refreeze to sleet regardless. Just such an extreme setup to where it all breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ukie flips DC to plain rain on Sunday evening lolWould be a kick in the nards even though it’s all gonna freeze back over rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Seems like multiple studies disagree with each other. One I read/skimmed said that if we have a freezing layer of 3000+ feet below the elevated warm layer it’ll refreeze to sleet regardless. Just such an extreme setup to where it all breaks down. wild to think we'd have a layer of 40+F air when it's around 20F at the surface. That would seem to produce a catastrophic ice storm if it occurs though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Canadian at 18z looks pretty good! it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then. around 10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Seems like multiple studies disagree with each other. One I read/skimmed said that if we have a freezing layer of 3000+ feet below the elevated warm layer it’ll refreeze to sleet regardless. Just such an extreme setup to where it all breaks down. I'd imagine besides the depth of freezing layer there's also variability based on if the drops contain ice nucleating particles which then becomes a matter of if they were homogenously nucleated in the first place. Probably no way to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 dIt’s gotta be missing some of that mid layer warmth. Or is it a big thump pre flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Unless the NAMs stay stubborn tomorrow, I’m feeling good for a 6” floor for DC based on tonight’s globals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This is 10:1 Canadian through 15z sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Does anybody have the UKIE kuchera?Not up on pivotal just 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Not up on pivotal just 10:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, balltermen said: This is 10:1 Canadian through 15z sunday Seems a little south-ier than I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 How does the wind look during this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 CMC kuchera exist yet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, umdterps29 said: CMC kuchera exist yet? . Pivotal has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18.9 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, bncho said: I think the sleet is overblown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20/-3, damn its cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ggem 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, bncho said: I, too, dabble in the art of radar hallucinating. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem Might be it's snowiest run so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, balltermen said: it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then. around 10" weird. its 10:1 map was more snow than the weenie ratio map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ggem Map makes no sense. Zero chance Laurel gets more snow than Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ji said: weird. its 10:1 map was more snow than the weenie ratio map PSU has explained this saying tht 10:1 ratio takes into account sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pivotal has it its lower than the 10:1 on WB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18/-6 - definitely one of the lowest dewpoints I've seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22.2/6.0 winds gusting to 32mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18.5/-9.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, konksw said: I think the sleet is overblown. Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Map makes no sense. Zero chance Laurel gets more snow than Hagerstown. Banding perhaps? but yeah, likely not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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