Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Rvarookie]

How does the wind look during this one? 

[umdterps29]

CMC kuchera exist yet?


.

[nj2va]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

CMC kuchera exist yet?


.

Pivotal has it

[bncho]

[konksw]

18.9 degrees 

[konksw]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I think the sleet is overblown. 

[nj2va]

20/-3, damn its cold

[psuhoffman]

Ggem

 

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I, too, dabble in the art of radar hallucinating.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem

 

Might be it's snowiest run so far?

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, balltermen said:

it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then.  around 10" 

weird. its 10:1 map was more snow than the weenie ratio map

[mikeg0305]

Ggem
 

Map makes no sense. Zero chance Laurel gets more snow than Hagerstown.

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

weird. its 10:1 map was more snow than the weenie ratio map

PSU has explained this saying tht 10:1 ratio takes into account sleet/ice.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Pivotal has it

its lower than the 10:1 on WB lol

[pazzo83]

18/-6 - definitely one of the lowest dewpoints I've seen.

[Random Chaos]

22.2/6.0 winds gusting to 32mph

[konksw]

18.5/-9.1

[LVblizzard]

8 minutes ago, konksw said:

I think the sleet is overblown. 

Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow.

[jayyy]

Map makes no sense. Zero chance Laurel gets more snow than Hagerstown.

Banding perhaps? but yeah, likely not the case.

[HighStakes]

9.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow.

I mean you can just take a look at the radar and it's obvious that's sleet falling all through southern OK.

[jayyy]

12z Mesos tomorrow will be super interesting. Watch the RAP show 13” again

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I mean you can just take a look at the radar and it's obvious that's sleet falling all through southern OK.

That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium.

[MillvilleWx]

20/3 at my place currently 

11/-7 where I’ll be for the storm 

This Arctic shot is no joke 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium.

If that carries eastward, it would remove the lone model that’s really punching the mid level warmth way quicker/north than others.  I know I’ll flip but a few extra hours will make a big difference.

[bncho]

Euro running

[caviman2201]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2014921199768240324?s=20

Maue is very big on the RRFS built-in ratio model which looks better than Kuchera for here

Kuchera:

RRFS Ratio:

[MillvilleWx]

I’ll say this for the northwest crew, the models are really good out this way with these ratios. 18-20:1 is a good bet for the first 4-6 hrs of the storm before they slowly scale back, but even still, it’s probably 15:1 or better through 15z Sunday. After that, it’ll be a degrading column with the warm nose trying to approach, but flakes will be massive. Clumped aggregates that’ll still amount to 10-12:1 before a flip of any kind. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS (probably out of its best range) got a bit wetter. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS (probably out of its best range) got a bit wetter. 

That's probably like 12" of snow in DC with the ratios