January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[Steve25]

I feel like there’s some fatigue going on or something. A model comes out and shows 6-8 inches followed by sleet in some spots and this place feels like it melts down and goes into disaster mode, but then a model shows like 8-10 inches followed by sleet and people act like it’s a big win. I understand 8-10 is more than 6-8, but is it REALLY that much bigger where you’re like omg this makes or breaks this storm for me? 
 

Idk. Maybe it’s just that the lower it gets, the closer you feel to a few more tweaks and it becomes an unmitigated disaster, but on paper I just think some of the reactions to rather minor accumulation differences have been a bit over the top. 

[George BM]

Went to an event in Tysons Corner tonight and a lot of people there were talking about how we are about to see over 2 feet of snow or 23 inches based on what their phone apps showed them. 

[LP08]

After snow and sleet…ukie almost gets us with a nice squall line…lol. 998 over deep creek

[Kay]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I feel like there’s some fatigue going on or something. A model comes out and shows 6-8 inches followed by sleet in some spots and this place feels like it melts down and goes into disaster mode, but then a model shows like 8-10 inches followed by sleet and people act like it’s a big win. I understand 8-10 is more than 6-8, but is it REALLY that much bigger where you’re like omg this makes or breaks this storm for me? 
 

Idk. Maybe it’s just that the lower it gets, the closer you feel to a few more tweaks and it becomes an unmitigated disaster, but on paper I just think some of the reactions to rather minor accumulation differences have been a bit over the top. 

Without commenting on the snow/sleet amounts part...nearly everyone on here is tired, cranky, needs a nice cup of sleepytime tea and a good night's sleep.

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I feel like there’s some fatigue going on or something. A model comes out and shows 6-8 inches followed by sleet in some spots and this place feels like it melts down and goes into disaster mode, but then a model shows like 8-10 inches followed by sleet and people act like it’s a big win. I understand 8-10 is more than 6-8, but is it REALLY that much bigger where you’re like omg this makes or breaks this storm for me? 
 

Idk. Maybe it’s just that the lower it gets, the closer you feel to a few more tweaks and it becomes an unmitigated disaster, but on paper I just think some of the reactions to rather minor accumulation differences have been a bit over the top. 

People take this way too seriously. As if it really matters that we get 6 instead of 16. 

Enjoy life, be glad for the small wins (like a snowstorm) but don't throw an online tantrum just because it didn't work out like you wanted. 

[wxdude64]

4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

People take this way too seriously. As if it really matters that we get 6 instead of 16. 

Enjoy life, be glad for the small wins (like a snowstorm) but don't throw an online tantrum just because it didn't work out like you wanted. 

All in all, I agree. Biggest 'issue' I have is staying out of the frz rain. If it snows 6 inches, great, snows 10? Awesome. 4" of snow and 3" of sleet? OK. Even more than 10 of snow? Bonus. 

[MDsnowPRO]

8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

People take this way too seriously. As if it really matters that we get 6 instead of 16. 

Enjoy life, be glad for the small wins (like a snowstorm) but don't throw an online tantrum just because it didn't work out like you wanted. 

It’s the fact that no one is ever satisfied when the models show a massive snow storm 5 days out and then they end up with the most respectable storm in 8-10 years. People should learn that models wavier and enjoy the ride, life’s too short to cry over 4 inches of snow 

[Silver Meteor]

34 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

LOL, sounds like my workplace. Last 14 years I was there I worked a 'temp 6 month changeover' going from a DOS system (yes, in 2009) to not one, but two systems that DID NOT communicate with each other (mainly because financial side wanted to 'see' everything and the actual machine/field side thought that system was too complicated). An interface was built to do the hand-offs, but it NEVER worked right and was a pure disaster at the first location down in Texas when we went down to put it online. That '6 month project' I rode out on until I retired, it did get slightly better the last 3 years, but wow. The 'savings' claimed by the folks that came up with that cost each location a minimum of four new people/positions to babysit and fix the errors/failures. 

DOS you say? Gracious I haven't heard that mentioned in eons. I learned computer programming (COBOL, FORTRAN, RPG and ASSEMBLY) on an IBM 360 with DOS operating system back in the late 1970s. Well, at least I'd guess you weren't using punch cards and vacuum tape drives in 2009, right? 

[Nomz]

I know it's just the weenie in me talking, but what are the odds of a significant (3F+) error in the 700mb temperature? I have zero idea how accurate models are with just plain temps.

[Wxtrix]

Just now, Nomz said:

I know it's just the weenie in me talking, but what are the odds of a significant (3F+) error in the 700mb temperature? I have zero idea how accurate models are with just plain temps.

unlikely

[wxdude64]

Just now, Silver Meteor said:

DOS you say? Gracious I haven't heard that mentioned in eons. I learned computer programming (COBOL, FORTRAN, RPG and ASSEMBLY) on an IBM 360 with DOS operating system back in the late 1970s. Well, at least I'd guess you weren't using punch cards and vacuum tube tape drives in 2009, right? 

No PC or vac tubes, lol. It had been 'upgraded' a few times, but the original install was mid 70's, they got their money out of it. 

[stormy]

10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

All in all, I agree. Biggest 'issue' I have is staying out of the frz rain. If it snows 6 inches, great, snows 10? Awesome. 4" of snow and 3" of sleet? OK. Even more than 10 of snow? Bonus. 

I agree about freezing rain.

The EURO seems to have a problem with depicting sleet. The latest indicates .75 freezing rain for me and only .2" of sleet when the 925 thermals should produce sleet.

The others are minimal with freezing rain but the EURO is bonkers.   Any thoughts?

[LordBaltimore]

6 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

DOS you say? Gracious I haven't heard that mentioned in eons. I learned computer programming (COBOL, FORTRAN, RPG and ASSEMBLY) on an IBM 360 with DOS operating system back in the late 1970s. Well, at least I'd guess you weren't using punch cards and vacuum tube tape drives in 2009, right? 

fortran has to be the single most underrated language of all time. It's the perfect mix of low-level enough to do resource management and easy enough to not require someone who is purely a software engineer. And I say this as someone who grew up with python, matlab and c++ lol

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I agree about freezing rain.

The EURO seems to have a problem with depicting sleet. The latest indicates .75 freezing rain for me and only .2" of sleet when the 925 thermals should produce sleet.

The others are minimal with freezing rain but the EURO is bonkers.   Any thoughts?

Only 'thought' I have on it is agreeing with you (and many others that DO have a degree in meteorology) that Euro has big issues with sleet vs freezing rain. I'm hoping for a lot more sleet vs freezing rain, for everyone.

[ravensrule]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m not here to talk politics but realistically that’s the better end of the spectrum for what a public figurehead can say forecast wise. It’s so infinitely better than saying we’re getting 18-24 based on a weather app.  

So then the NWS should put that for every forecast. You guys would blow your shit. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Would you rather he have said this was "one of the snowiest we've ever seen from the standpoint of snow"?

I would rather he leave out something moronic like 3-16”. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, ravensrule said:

So then the NWS should put that for every forecast. You guys would blow your shit. 

Man I’m not sure what would you want him to say? Forecasting is tricky, I myself put out a roughly 4-14 inch prediction for Nova because I can’t say with confidence where in that range we will lie. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

So then the NWS should put that for every forecast. You guys would blow your shit. 

having lived in NYC and been through a ton of snowstorms there - getting 3" along the ocean in Brooklyn and Queens and getting 12+" in the Bronx happens literally all the time, particularly in coastal storms like this.  So what exactly is the problem again?  NYC is a huge city.

[stormtracker]

Guys...no politics.  Full stop.

[baltosquid]

wow are we due

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Lol, i thought you said you don’t want to get political. The youth of today, this Country is so fucked in 20 years. 

I said I didn’t want to get political in my post discussing the initial claim of the NYC mayors tweet, that post on the other hand is a political statement yes. I mean we’ve butt heads on this stuff way back when so ofc I know we have our biases. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I said I didn’t want to get political in my post discussing the initial claim of the NYC mayors tweet, that post on the other hand is a political statement yes. I mean we’ve butt heads on this stuff way back when so ofc I know we have our biases. 

I still love you. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Actually I think Mamdani might be referring to the 3" the Central Park snow measurer dude will measure and the actual snowfall of 12+ in the rest of the city

Dang DC’s mayor forecast gotta include rain in germantown, 0 inches at DCA and then 12 inches in NW DC. Tough world out there for mayors tweeting about snow. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

lol - can't take one humorous back and forth.  We were just sparring a bit - your loss.

It’s just like Mike Tyson and Evander Holyfield, just watch your ears. 

[nj2va]

Back to other things - who else is watching the Australian Open?

[stormtracker]

Last time yall.   Stop with the politics.  Please and thanks.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Dang DC’s mayor forecast gotta include rain in germantown, 0 inches at DCA and then 12 inches in NW DC. Tough world out there for mayors tweeting about snow. 

honestly I do not envy being a big NE city mayor during a snowstorm, particularly NYC.  Fucking up a snowstorm will turn the city against you with a vengeance.  There was a storm late in Bloomberg's last term where some of the outer boroughs didn't get plowed in a timely manner - boy he got ripped to pieces.  And then early in BDB's tenure, the city wasn't ready for a big storm to hit.  Dude got raked over the coals for weeks.  Snowstorms are serious business in the city that never sleeps.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Back to other things - who else is watching the Australian Open?

Do they hit yellow balls or blue balls in tennis?. 

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Guys...no politics.  Full stop.

My bad. Wont happen again.

[Nomz]

making hot chocalate. maybe this will summon the powder