nw baltimore wx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean the trend isn't looking good for the higher amounts. See? Now you're in the right thread. Good job. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Hokiehop said: Says the guy who also chimed in with this nugget... Welp I’m pulling out, I’ve been down this road before and I’m not going to hit that wall again. I’ll check again tomorrow morning but I’m not holding my breath. I am not saying it won’t snow, but I’m not holding my breath for a large event at this point. Then a few hours later when 0z showed improvement I said that I'd jump back in if those improvements held after 6z. They did and so I jumped back in. Now that it looks like we're pretty much guaranteed at least 6" I'm most likely going to stay in with tempered expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Double digits around the metro, especially in DC will likely be very difficult, but not totally impossible. I think the actual city will be <10” with sleet on top. Climo climo climo These kinds of posts annoy me...like really annoy me. They make it seems like it's not possible to have an all-snow event in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: We're forgetting this. We're getting strong WAA into a historically cold airmass. I just don't see how we fail at that. You must be new here. It's La Nina in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, mattie g said: These kinds of posts annoy me...like really annoy me. They make it seems like it's not possible to have an all-snow event in the cities. Is this about my post in particular or the post I was responding to? I was mainly talking for this setup in particular. The metros can absolutely get crushed in the right setup, so sorry if it came off that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You must be new here. It's La Nina in DC. Nope just coping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Nope just coping I'm coping hard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I always wondered what 2-3 inches of sleet would actually look like... Did any of the models over the weekend sniff out the amped/cutting idea? Were their red flags? [And yes, I know that potential for a 6" snow in the cities is not a "fail" but its certainly not in the same league as a 12-18+ mauling] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: These kinds of posts annoy me...like really annoy me. They make it seems like it's not possible to have an all-snow event in the cities. it feels like its getting harder and harder to. Base state changing and all that. But thats a different topic. I mean if it wasn't for us getting vodka cold 24 hr prior to this storm we'd be looking at rain for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago And not to nitpick but goddammit after all these years we still have to reference things in zulu time. I HATE converting to EST. C'mon @MN Transplant hook a brother up and just do AM/PM for the dumb people. Like....me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, H2O said: And not to nitpick but goddammit after all these years we still have to reference things in zulu time. I HATE converting to EST. C'mon @MN Transplant hook a brother up and just do AM/PM for the dumb people. Like....me I know using the internet is tough for an old man like yourself but you can use google to do the conversion for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago "Snow and sleet before 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 100%." I don't think I've ever seen a "heavy sleet" point forecast before. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, H2O said: And not to nitpick but goddammit after all these years we still have to reference things in zulu time. I HATE converting to EST. C'mon @MN Transplant hook a brother up and just do AM/PM for the dumb people. Like....me LOL. Minus 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I know using the internet is tough for an old man like yourself but you can use google to do the conversion for you I know I'm not good with the interwebs or technology in general so I'll stick with my trusty abacus for mathing. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 33 minutes ago, mattie g said: These kinds of posts annoy me...like really annoy me. They make it seems like it's not possible to have an all-snow event in the cities. I’d say it’s tougher to get a big storm with double digits in the cities while staying all snow. A 1-3” clipper without precip worries is easy. But it takes a damn near perfect setup like February 2010 or January 2016 to get a slow moving coastal monster that delivers prolific totals, awesome dynamics, and doesn’t mix at all. And that’s why they’re so rare and memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: LOL. Minus 5. So take snow depth maps and subtract 5". Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, H2O said: I know I'm not good with the interwebs or technology in general so I'll stick with my trusty abacus for mathing. Thank you Always looking out for you friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, H2O said: So take snow depth maps and subtract 5". Got it. I tried to shut up all week about the Kucera maps. It is pointless to rage against those. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, mappy said: Always looking out for you friend Appreciate it, friend! Its comforting to know people still care about their elders 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hopefully we are converging on a result that is close to reality. As it stands I feel like 6-9” is a safe and reasonable forecast for 95. Feel like 10-14” NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I tried to shut up all week about the Kucera maps. It is pointless to rage against those. Choose your battles. Just stick to your guns about CC radars. Don't let @mattie g intimidate you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: LOL. Minus 5. Except when it's minus 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, T. August said: Hopefully we are converging on a result that is close to reality. As it stands I feel like 6-9” is a safe and reasonable forecast for 95. Feel like 10-14” NW. The reality is that this hobby sucks ass and we keep doing it every winter. A week of tracking for Pingers cause the goddamn hot air steamrolls over the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Is this about my post in particular or the post I was responding to? I was mainly talking for this setup in particular. The metros can absolutely get crushed in the right setup, so sorry if it came off that way. No need to apologize and it's not just your post in particular. I just feel like there's always tis reversion to "you should accept it because that's just the way it is" when that's not really the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, H2O said: it feels like its getting harder and harder to. Base state changing and all that. But thats a different topic. I mean if it wasn't for us getting vodka cold 24 hr prior to this storm we'd be looking at rain for you and me. I don't know...I'm not sure it's been a huge deal recently, but then again we haven't had many decent storms recently to prove it one way or the other. That said...f we weren't getting Arctic cold 24 hours in advance via a massive high pressure and a block then this wouldn't even be a discussion. It would just be a cutter, which isn't abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Pityflakes said: I always wondered what 2-3 inches of sleet would actually look like... Did any of the models over the weekend sniff out the amped/cutting idea? Were their red flags? [And yes, I know that potential for a 6" snow in the cities is not a "fail" but its certainly not in the same league as a 12-18+ mauling] there was nothing to sniff out. models aren't predictions. they are simulations of what is most likely to happen with a hypothetical set of mathematical inputs. as the imputs get close to the actual atmospheric conditions, the simulations change and begin to reflect what will actually happen. tl;dr: Kuchera maps suck. stop using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Listen I wasn't even looking for two feet. But I sure as heck wanted to least try to make a run at double digits for the first time--it sucks because you'd think a simple SS wave coming right at us would deliver...but then we get unlucky with a NS complication, and you wonder if it continues to get trimmed back over the next 48 hours. I do agree the difference between a sub 9inch or so storm and a major 10+ snowstorm goes from an every (should be) two years or so to a real event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago You think schools will have a 4 day week next week or 3 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss. Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas. And it should've been simple...Finally having unmissable precip just to have other random ns nina crap potentially mess it up to the point where we see snow totals getting cut back and back and who knows how much more over the next 48 hours. I haven't had a warning level snow in 10 years nor have I hit double digits since that time. I would like crap to go right just ONCE. If I can get 6-10" I'm good. But it just feels like that's in jeopardy. 2007 (an analog for this storm) was supposed to be a snowstorm but ended up all sleet unexpectedly. If that happens and I get stuck with 4-5" snow with hard-to-shovel sleetn I'll still not have had one in 10 years. (And yes I can dream up worse case scenarios with the best of them, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: You think schools will have a 4 day week next week or 3 day? Depends on where you are. I'd imagine it'll be at most a 4 day week...and decreasing the further n & w you get, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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