Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Can we all get back to the seriousness of examining and then freaking out over the the world class 12km NAM? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks! You’re welcome. LWX spotter form has snow/sleet combined, so def measure as one total. Freezing rain would be separate 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheColtrane Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, mappy said: It clearly says ice The snow map does not clearly say sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks! I usually don’t report sleet on top of snow. This time I will, but I’ll take separate measurements to get the snow accum right when it flips, and then get the sleet accum just to differentiate the two when reporting the total. Also given that sleet is counted, the bullish nws forecasts make a little more sense. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TheColtrane said: The snow map does not clearly say sleet. Last time: snow and sleet both count as snow. Snow maps include sleet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Damn..plenty cold at that level 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps Its down in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, Solution Man said: No, this is the sleet Sleet is included in snow totals in obs/climate reports. That product is freezing rain accretion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Nam looks better. So far at least the high is more south and the cold air push is better also the precip shield is larger and heavier at least thru 30hrs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn..plenty cold at that level For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday How good is the HRRR precip type algorithm? Is it like the Euro with a lot of sleet depicted as freezing rain? Here it looks like the sleet zone is pretty narrow compared to other models. Do you think that is legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM coming in colder at the start 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, mob1 said: For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb. Yeah, got that. Was talking for my area and trying to avoid/time the switch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: Compared to the same frame from 06z GFS, 12z HRRR appears to be better or similar 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, got that. Was talking for my area and trying to avoid/time the switch It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago @Buddy1987and other swva peeps. Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Global models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It's the NAM, but it does seem a touch cooler so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's the NAM, but it does seem a touch cooler so far It is but the bigger issue last couple runs was it had a funky dryslot at the most critical time periods when we needed the thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Ji said: the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps WB 12Z HRRR hr 48 700 mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It is but the bigger issue last couple runs was it had a funky dryslot at the most critical time periods when we needed the thump Seems wetter/more area coverage down to our SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ehhhh NAM looks pretty similar to me so far. I don’t expect any major changes from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9z to 15z is really it. DC has to max qpf in that window. NAM last 2 runs had a dryslot limiting qpf during that critical period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM will get juicer in the coming runs.....just starting to get into its wheelhouse range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Ehhhh NAM looks pretty similar to me so far. I don’t expect any major changes from 6z. temp wise, it came back to about the same as 6z...was running a little cooler early on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ripping at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, yoda said: Ripping at 42 meh - next panel critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Taking a walk; surface temps are going below freezing again- at least we don't have that to worry about that with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: meh - next panel critical Yeah, not sure I'd call that ripping. Next panel is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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