Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ai snowfall improved more south 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 6Z EURO 4 am Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Ji said: Ai snowfall improved more south Feeling better with overnight runs. Starting....juuuust startin', to get that 13/14 vibe when things really did get colder or otherwise improve as crunch time approached. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Euro might come in a bit colder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Actually a hair warmer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 6Z Euro 4 am Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 4 am Monday That’s a glacier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Ji said: Leave it to the euro to ruin all the good vibes. 6z suite looked pretty good mostly, euro looks colder as the precip moves in then just warms slightly quicker. Noise mostly, but obviously has meso implications depending on area. The thump seems to lock in 6-8 for most even down to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 4 am Monday 1 minute ago, Ji said: Leave it to the euro to ruin all the good vibes. Looks like noise level stuff. Same general idea all over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, WxUSAF said: Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z Euro 4 am Monday Give me 8-10” and then encapsulate it with freezing rain and sleet? Sold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It looks like the euro might give us some fluff love after the sleet explosion around DC. That would nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Euro still loves that freezing rain warm nose. Just don't see it. Obviously we flip on I-95. But to freezing rain? We need to hurry this storm up already, the models keep getting warmer and warmer. I honestly think this plays out on I-95 with about 6 inches and a fairly quick flip to sleet. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, dailylurker said: It looks like the euro might give us some fluff love after the sleet explosion around DC. That would nice. Slight cave to gfs then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time. You're in the Carroll Valley and even you see different ptypes? You should be mostly snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: Euro still loves that freezing rain warm nose. Just don't see it. Obviously we flip on I-95. But to freezing rain? We need to hurry this storm up already, the models keep getting warmer and warmer. I honestly think this plays out on I-95 with about 6 inches and a fairly quick flip to sleet. 6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Ai snowfall improved more south Guidance is trending towards a colder start and a better band out ahead early Sunday. That’s limits the “bust” potential. But we’re also losing the big upside as pretty much everything except the gfs (and we know it can’t see mid level warmth) changes us over now so the 15”+ type solutions are totally gone now. Things have narrowed in on a 6-12” snow to sleet event for most of the area. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it! Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of Fr rain, it would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Will lean on the RGEM and 3K NAM for precip types. Even an hour difference if there are heavy rates makes big difference in accumulations and the globals won't nail that to the hour as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Better shovel or snow blow before the gunk or you will never move it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. Rgem was a little of both. It did trend a little SE with the whole thermal boundary but then it also death banded us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of ice, it would be catastrophic. I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa RGEM. I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. RGEM mixes us at the same time/hour as the Euro does. Gives us 10" areawide before mixing. I'll take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NWS just updated forecast Ft Meade MD @ 6:15 a.m. what blend do they use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 In case you were wondering, or not, 6z GGEM colder with lots of 10" (light orange) and 12" (dark orange) thru the metro areas. EDIT: This is 10:1 ratios. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rgem was a little of both. It did trend a little SE with the whole thermal boundary but then it also death banded us. 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: RGEM mixes us at the same time/hour as the Euro does. Gives us 10" areawide before mixing. I'll take it! This is all we need to root for at this point. Max precip in the 6-18z window. No light stuff, need a pummeling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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