January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday

the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps

[stormtracker]

Can we all get back to the seriousness of examining and then freaking out over the the world class 12km NAM?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

 

I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks!

You’re welcome. LWX spotter form has snow/sleet combined, so def measure as one total. Freezing rain would be separate 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps

 

[TheColtrane]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

It clearly says ice 

The snow map does not clearly say sleet.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

 

I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks!

I usually don’t report sleet on top of snow. This time I will, but I’ll take separate measurements to get the snow accum right when it flips, and then get the sleet accum just to differentiate the two when reporting the total.

Also given that sleet is counted, the bullish nws forecasts make a little more sense.

[mappy]

Just now, TheColtrane said:

The snow map does not clearly say sleet.

Last time: snow and sleet both count as snow. Snow maps include sleet. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

 

Damn..plenty cold at that level

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps

Its down in N NC 

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

No, this is the sleet

 

Sleet is included in snow totals in obs/climate reports. That product is freezing rain accretion. 

[TSSN+]

Nam looks better. So far at least the high is more south and the cold air push is better also the precip shield is larger and heavier at least thru 30hrs 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..plenty cold at that level

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb. 

[Ephesians2]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday

How good is the HRRR precip type algorithm? Is it like the Euro with a lot of sleet depicted as freezing rain? Here it looks like the sleet zone is pretty narrow compared to other models. Do you think that is legit? 

[Shad]

NAM coming in colder at the start

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb. 

Yeah, got that.  Was talking for my area and trying to avoid/time the switch

[jgentworth]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

 

Compared to the same frame from 06z GFS, 12z HRRR appears to be better or similar

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, got that.  Was talking for my area and trying to avoid/time the switch

It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing.

[Bob Chill]

@Buddy1987and other swva peeps.

Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Global models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards. 

[stormtracker]

It's the NAM, but it does seem a touch cooler so far

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's the NAM, but it does seem a touch cooler so far

It is but the bigger issue last couple runs was it had a funky dryslot at the most critical time periods when we needed the thump 

[Weather Will]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 850 maps dont matter bro....show the 700mb temps

WB 12Z HRRR hr 48 700 mb

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It is but the bigger issue last couple runs was it had a funky dryslot at the most critical time periods when we needed the thump 

Seems wetter/more area coverage down to our SSE

[LVblizzard]

Ehhhh NAM looks pretty similar to me so far. I don’t expect any major changes from 6z.

[psuhoffman]

9z to 15z is really it. DC has to max qpf in that window. NAM last 2 runs had a dryslot limiting qpf during that critical period. 

[Shad]

NAM will get juicer in the coming runs.....just starting to get into its wheelhouse range

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Ehhhh NAM looks pretty similar to me so far. I don’t expect any major changes from 6z.

temp wise, it came back to about the same as 6z...was running a little cooler early on

[yoda]

Ripping at 42

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, yoda said:

Ripping at 42

meh - next panel critical

[Weather Will]

Taking a walk; surface temps are going below freezing again- at least we don't have that to worry about that with this storm.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

meh - next panel critical

Yeah, not sure I'd call that ripping.   Next panel is key