January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Terpeast]

Here's my first call on what I think is going to happen in our forum. More confidence in a 30 mile corridor along DC/Balt and NW. Less confidence in the SW quadrant of this map (so please don't hammer me if you live somewhere like Roanoke or Cville.

[Ji]

Ai snowfall improved more south

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO 4 am Sunday

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Ai snowfall improved more south

Feeling better with overnight runs. Starting....juuuust startin', to get that 13/14 vibe when things really did get colder or otherwise improve as crunch time approached.

[Ji]

Euro might come in a bit colder

[Ji]

[Weather Will]

[Ji]

Actually a hair warmer

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z Euro 4 am Monday 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

4 am Monday 

That’s a glacier 

[WxUSAF]

Whoa RGEM. 
 

I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

Leave it to the euro to ruin all the good vibes.

6z suite looked pretty good mostly, euro looks colder as the precip moves in then just warms slightly quicker. Noise mostly, but obviously has meso implications depending on area. The thump seems to lock in 6-8 for most even down to the SE. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

4 am Monday 

 

 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Leave it to the euro to ruin all the good vibes.

Looks like noise level stuff.  Same general idea all over. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Whoa RGEM. 
 

I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. 

I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time. 

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z Euro 4 am Monday 

Give me 8-10” and then encapsulate it with freezing rain and sleet? Sold.

[dailylurker]

It looks like the euro might give us some fluff love after the sleet explosion around DC. That would nice. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Euro still loves that freezing rain warm nose. Just don't see it. Obviously we flip on I-95. But to freezing rain?

We need to hurry this storm up already, the models keep getting warmer and warmer. I honestly think this plays out on I-95 with about 6 inches and a fairly quick flip to sleet. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump.  Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, dailylurker said:

It looks like the euro might give us some fluff love after the sleet explosion around DC. That would nice. 

Slight cave to gfs then.

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time. 

You're in the Carroll Valley and even you see different ptypes? You should be mostly snow throughout.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Euro still loves that freezing rain warm nose. Just don't see it. Obviously we flip on I-95. But to freezing rain?

We need to hurry this storm up already, the models keep getting warmer and warmer. I honestly think this plays out on I-95 with about 6 inches and a fairly quick flip to sleet. 

6 inches to ice would be a very high impact

and memorable event for the 95 corridor.  Enjoy it!

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai snowfall improved more south

Guidance is trending towards a colder start and a better band out ahead early Sunday. That’s limits the “bust” potential. But we’re also losing the big upside as pretty much everything except the gfs (and we know it can’t see mid level warmth) changes us over now so the 15”+ type solutions are totally gone now.  Things have narrowed in on a 6-12” snow to sleet event for most of the area. 

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

6 inches to ice would be a very high impact

and memorable event for the 95 corridor.  Enjoy it!

Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of Fr rain, it would be catastrophic. 

[Weather Will]

Will lean on the RGEM and 3K NAM for precip types.  Even an hour difference if there are heavy rates makes big difference in accumulations and the globals won't nail that to the hour as well.

[Solution Man]

Better shovel or snow blow before the gunk or you will never move it.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whoa RGEM. 
 

I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. 

Rgem was a little of both. It did trend a little SE with the whole thermal boundary but then it also death banded us. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of ice, it would be catastrophic. 

I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm.  I wouldn’t take it too seriously.  NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whoa RGEM. 
 

I think these “shifts” we’re seeing now are mostly down to details of banding changing between runs. Are the Synoptics really changing at this point? Someone will get banded, that will hold off mix for a time. Someone will get subsidence and mix a little sooner. 

RGEM mixes us at the same time/hour as the Euro does. Gives us 10" areawide before mixing. I'll take it!

[GreyHat]

NWS just updated forecast Ft Meade MD @ 6:15 a.m. what blend do they use?

 

 

[mitchnick]

In case you were wondering, or not, 6z GGEM colder with lots of 10" (light orange) and 12" (dark orange) thru the metro areas.

EDIT: This is 10:1 ratios.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off