January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[psuhoffman]

@TSSN+ @mitchnick @HighStakes

The warm layer at the end of the NAM is really thin and only around +1 around h7 for our area, it shows as sleet but heavy enough precip would be able to mix that out...it would probably still be a mix of snow/sleet depending on intensity through the end of the run up here...the dryslot was coming soon after anyways.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@TSSN+ @mitchnick @HighStakes

The warm layer at the end of the NAM is really thin and only around +1 around h7 for our area, it shows as sleet but heavy enough precip would be able to mix that out...it would probably still be a mix of snow/sleet depending on intensity through the end of the run up here...the dryslot was coming soon after anyways.  

So mixing remains minimal for the region? Or is that just for higher elevations?

[baltosquid]

FWIW RRFS is south/colder at 12z, at least initially. Not sure what it will look like as we get to the transfer or lack thereof stage.

[mitchnick]

Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So mixing remains minimal for the region? Or is that just for higher elevations?

That post was specific for northern MD and southern PA.  Closer to 95 the warm layer is a bit more significant the last 6 hours.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So mixing remains minimal for the region? Or is that just for higher elevations?

He very clearly said their area 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So mixing remains minimal for the region? Or is that just for higher elevations?

It’ll be latitudinally dependent. The protrusion of the warm nose will have less depth and less opportunity the further north and west you go in the grand scheme. Rate dependent mixing of cooler air aloft will also be at play, so the advancement of the mixing line will have a multitude of variables at play. I think along and south of I-70 mixes no matter what. North and west of there is the question mark. It will be a fight for those zones. 

[winter_warlock]

48 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

For what it is worth. WB 12Z 12K NAM totals 

And that's just thru 84 hours wow still about 12 hours left after that

[Buddy1987]

How reliable is the FV3? That thing is downright cold with initial thump for the forum.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chillcheck out hr 64 on the RGEM. That is an absolute beatdown right across 460 line out to you.

It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.

the mid level low is tracking pretty far NW to hope for any meaningful snow on the back end.  Typically we need that to be tracking over us or to our south for that to work out...its tracking well to our NW.  Unless we see that change I would not really put any stock in any significant snow on the back end.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

How reliable is the FV3? That thing is downright cold with initial thump for the forum.

It's the high res version of the GFS so.... 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

the mid level low is tracking pretty far NW to hope for any meaningful snow on the back end.  Typically we need that to be tracking over us or to our south for that to work out...its tracking well to our NW.  Unless we see that change I would not really put any stock in any significant snow on the back end.  

A dying  primary in SW PA associated with ull won't do as you said. Need those features in TN Valley

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

the mid level low is tracking pretty far NW to hope for any meaningful snow on the back end.  Typically we need that to be tracking over us or to our south for that to work out...its tracking well to our NW.  Unless we see that change I would not really put any stock in any significant snow on the back end.  

Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol

Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.

I didn’t move to Frederick to see sleet.

[stormtracker]

Not seeing any remarkable changes on the GFS so far

[TSSN+]

No serious changes to gfs thru 24. If anything the confluence is a tiny bit stronger. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, 87storms said:

I didn’t move to Frederick to see sleet.

We're all going to see sleet, some more than others.  But it's coming for us all..N and W not protected.  I hate it, but we might as well try to get a solution with the least amount of it.  At least youll hang on to snow for a few hours more than most of us

[TSSN+]

Thru 36 same thing pretty much the same except heights are like 25 miles south in the east lol

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol

Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.

Oh that RGEM was a significant improvement and was 90% snow for us on that run...we ride the mix line for 12 hours BUT its rate dependent, during dry slots its sleet and the snow line sinks south during heavier periods...and even during lighter periods the mix line never gets more than a few miles NW of us...1 degree colder and it's 100%...a huge improvement from 12 hours ago!  

BUT...that stuff you see to our SW won't make it here...we are about to dry slot at the end of the run and its over.  The stuff in WV and OH won't make it across the mountains because with the primary going to our NW the flow ill be out of the west and downsloping and the mid level dynamics are going to our NW so there won't be anything to cause additional precip.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I didn’t move to Frederick to see sleet.

If you moved to Frederick for snow purposes...umm...we need to have a talk 

[BristowWx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Thru 36 same thing pretty much the same except heights are like 25 miles south in the east lol

I mean that matters at this juncture.  and beats 25 miles north

[baltosquid]

Quebec low being stronger is probably good? Would drive confluence and get us colder to start.

[TSSN+]

Not much difference thru 48 either. Maybe the NW energy isn’t as strong and a little east 

[Quasievil]

Frustrating to see that low creep into WV before jumping the coast. Always tricky around here. Let's hope it can dial back on the ampage a bit

[stormtracker]

Heights rise a hair out in front starting at 60

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you moved to Frederick for snow purposes...umm...we need to have a talk 

I didn’t…but after growing up in Silver Spring, I know this area is like a different climate. Actually, anything Germantown north can be the dividing line for snow/sleet…at least it used to be.

[stormtracker]

All good when snow starts obviously around 3z....getting good snows at 9z...still snow so far

[psuhoffman]

Just now, 87storms said:

I didn’t…but after growing up in Silver Spring, I know this area is like a different climate. Actually, anything Germantown north can be the dividing line for snow/sleet…at least it used to be.

I was somewhat giving you a hard time...but Frederick is in a shadow zone between the Catoctins and Parrs Ridge and doesn't do as much better than places closer to 95 as you would think.  Places closer to DC and Baltimore like Damascus and Mt Airy actually do better.  

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

All good when snow starts obviously around 3z....getting good snows at 9z...still snow so far

Looks like mostly a hold? Tiny move north?