January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[nw baltimore wx]

So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled better.  I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow.  

Is there anyone still awake that's in the know?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled.  I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow.  

Is there anyone still awake that's in the know?

As for when the NS is sampled I don’t know but @MillvilleWx probably does. As for needing it sampled to know what happens that’s true. We need the whole picture not one half.

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/2014175039457829228

Probably should be in banter but Fox model is my new friend. 

Good God, epic and with a 4pm Saturday start

[coastal front]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled better.  I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow.  

Is there anyone still awake that's in the know?

Yea that norther stream piece has trended west a bit on every model for a day now. Safe to say it’s difficult to resolve in such a days sparse region 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As for when the NS is sampled I don’t know but @MillvilleWx probably does. As for needing it sampled to know what happens that’s true. We need the whole picture not one half.

We're gonna get it.

And it's gonna be shweet.

Have you not been entertained?

[stormtracker]

It has begun

[jayyy]

Take us home Randy

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As for when the NS is sampled I don’t know but @MillvilleWx probably does. As for needing it sampled to know what happens that’s true. We need the whole picture not one half.

 

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled better.  I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow.  

Is there anyone still awake that's in the know?

The N/S will be sampled better by tomorrow as it exits the Arctic regions and comes into more favorable RAOB domain. That said, models are probably still on the right track right now, but a small shift is still plausible once that is alignment with better land data captures. As for the oceanic recons, reading into some responses from the flight members and they said it’s not a magic pill right now for immediate change, but more data collection over the coming 24 hrs will add more to the general picture in the future ingests, so it’s a steady assistance prior to the S/W making “landfall” over Baja. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, jayyy said:

Take us home Randy

This, ladies and gentlemen is the lightning round

[stormtracker]

Tabs at the ready.  Feeling good

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It has begun

I want white asteroids of destruction for all of us. Get it!

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

The N/S will be sampled better by tomorrow as it exits the Arctic regions and comes into more favorable RAOB domain. That said, models are probably still on the right track right now, but a small shift is still plausible once that is alignment with better land data captures. As for the oceanic recons, reading into some responses from the flight members and they said it’s not a magic pill right now for immediate change, but more data collection over the coming 24 hrs will add more to the general picture in the future ingests, so it’s a steady assistance prior to the S/W making “landfall” over Baja. 

Good stuff!  Thanks.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Tabs at the ready.  Feeling good

Always love seeing under the hood, lets do it

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Tabs at the ready.  Feeling good

That dude digging for gold? *in elementary voice* Ewwwwww...

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI

[clskinsfan]

Was looking at the Kuchera ratio map on the gfs run. It had DC at around 14-1 and the ratios progressed up to 20-1 well west of town. Not sure how accurate that is but pretty phenomenal fluff if true.

[stormtracker]

No remarkable changes through 51

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI

riding the knifes edge man

[LeesburgWx]

Just caught up and took a moment for myself after that GFS run.. Ukie looks huge, as well. Let’s bring it home with the euro

[Ji]

AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistency

[NVAwx]

AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistency

It’s got that new new data.


.

[stormtracker]

Heights a hair higher out in front.baja sw in about the same position

[clskinsfan]

Those temps at onset on the AI are pretty mouthwatering. Around 10 degrees out this way.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, NVAwx said:

It’s got that new new data.
.

I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistency

And we still got double digits

[Nomz]

Just now, Chris78 said:

And we still got double digits

on 10:1 as well

[stormtracker]

Surface about the same so far thru 66.   Going just switch to that since those panels come in quicker

[IUsedToHateCold]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work.

I would think the AI models get all the same data the physics models do, except instead of feeding a physics engine they feed an LLM. 

If that map is right then it seems that the AI has definitely gone with the WV primary idea, which is not great news. 

[stormtracker]

Here she comes

[stormtracker]

81. Precip shield appears a lil more flatter..just a little