January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[WxUSAF]

 

[LP08]

Maybe I'm wrong but it looks a little more "phasey" out west.

[baltosquid]

ICON also puts a 1042 in VT/NH. Was 1040 north of the border at 12z (this is at hr90)

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Maybe I'm wrong but it looks a little more "phasey" out west.

It is...hope that transfer gets going quick

[TSSN+]

Blech

 

[LP08]

Primary won't die quick enough with an H5 look like that...

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Blech

 

Agreed

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Agreed

Gross 

[stormtracker]

Down to 7" on zee ol' ICON

[osfan24]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gross 

Ha, we actually did get less than Chicago that run. Good thing it’s the Icon.

[Paleocene]

ICON is way more amped with totals compared to its 12z run, especially across the midwest. As discussed, more amped early out west = more norther with the precip

[Interstate]

Everyone... there is a banter thread... move the banter there... it is 2026... you can have two tabs open and toggle between the two.

[osfan24]

Just a hunch but the steady as can be and top rated Euro AI is probably not caving to the awful Icon. Speaking of great models, let’s see what the GFS cooks up this run.

[Weather Will]

Well I guess it is another way to fail, but maybe I am setting the bar too high at a foot or more.

[LeesburgWx]

We need 00z data ingested asap. I have a feeling we are about to be cliff diving soon in GFS follows ICON

[Eskimo Joe]

Welp, that's a definitely changeover on the 18z ICON. Looks like a lot of sleet that cuts totals down.

[Nomz]

I still trust the straight as an arrow EURO AIFS... would trust it more if GFS fell in line though.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Just a hunch but the steady as can be and top rated Euro AI is probably not caving to the awful Icon. Speaking of great models, let’s see what the GFS cooks up this run.

If you look at the total QPF map on the ICON (especially if you compare runs) you can see why it's a junk model. Weird patches and holes all over the place compared to the varsity models. IDK why I'm even bothering to dissect it. On to the GOOFY

[baltosquid]

Looking up at Canada at hr66 or so on the ICON and the NS just is way different than 12z. Have to see if that energy presentation is real at all.

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Good thing you say this every time the model shows something you don't like. What's your excuse when the Euro shows it in 2 hours? Not saying it will, but what if it does? 

Sure, maybe it’s about to lead the way for the first time ever and technically it’s another piece of guidance, but no one ever even used to post this model back in the day and I have always thought it was just posted something to look at after the NAM while we wait for the GFS. I never take it seriously.

[TSSN+]

Icon doesn’t even make sense. Has the primary in eastern TN and has us mixing to Maryland line. CMC has the primary in Kentucky at same time and it’s still snowing in DC. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON takes a primary into northern WV, transfer is north of us and we basically get dry slotted.

[baltosquid]

Just now, LP08 said:

You can see early on below.  That northern stream piece in Canada is right over the top and phases way to early and easy.  Need that piece further east and out in front.  18z is the first image.

Just so you know the pivotal beta gifs are broken. The old display works better for them. I don’t see 18z in that gif

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z ICON takes a primary into northern WV, transfer is north of us and we basically get dry slotted.

Miller B 

[LP08]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Just so you know the pivotal beta gifs are broken. The old display works better for them. I don’t see 18z in that gif

Deleted.  I screwed it up i think but that point still stands lol

[WxUSAF]

Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario.

[Buddy1987]

RGEM is textbook placement of the HP over north of NY/Canada border. Thing of beauty.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario.

All the times we need a phase and some random NS SW screws it up.  We need one of those hah

[baltosquid]

I don’t know how ready the RRFS A is for prime time but it would be rough I think. Would probably already be mixing by sunrise Sunday.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

All the times we need a phase and some random NS SW screws it up.  We need one of those hah

And that’s what basically every other run has. Icon has a cleaner, single northern shortwave that perfectly phases. It’s quite beautiful actually if you ignore how it Fs us over lol.