“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

You people Really don’t understand basic % do you.  Can forecast a Snowstorm like a Champion, but can’t understand Being home 85% of the time and still missing almost 2/3’s of the major weather events when there’s Nothing More in life I desire than what you guys are About to see.  

Well, the 15% you are gone is peak climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry can you post the north map for this one too? Euro has been most favorable up here…

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Don’t think I’ve ever seen such a uniform Narcan snow map distribution ever before like that over all of SNE/and NY State.  Talk about spreading the wealth. Impressive. 

[CoastalWx]

Just no clothes on 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[Twitching Trucks]

 
You do NOT understand the Basic Math Equation of HOW MUCH I actually AM home every year for winter (My travel is mostly May through November ), and yet HOW MANY of the big events I’ve STILL missed.  I’m not typing them all out again.  I have 12 Hobbies and a Worldwide Music Career.  The Thing I Love more than ANYTHING ON THIS EARTH is a Big Snowstorm.  Maybe you still don’t get it.  
 
I Understand Bad Luck.  But this recently has gotten Absolutely Mother F******* ReDonkulous.  I could Actually chuck an accordion or of the Hilton right now.  

If snowstorms are what you love more than anything, then you’d be in New England and not bitching about being wherever the hell you are. Jesus Christ, give it a rest


.

[MuddyWx]

[WeatherGeek2025]

my final snowmap call

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just no clothes on 

This setup is pretty cool. We haven’t really had a storm like this when you combine the type of storm with the magnitude of the airmass. It’s like a Jan ‘05 airmass but a massive juiced SWFE type storm that in a normal winter airmass might front end us and then give a whole mess of IP/ZR/RA well into CNE. But this is not a normal airmass. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

HREF backed off a bit form insane 12z that had 27" in se NH.

[weathafella]

56 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

 

You do NOT understand the Basic Math Equation of HOW MUCH I actually AM home every year for winter (My travel is mostly May through November ), and yet HOW MANY of the big events I’ve STILL missed.  I’m not typing them all out again.  I have 12 Hobbies and a Worldwide Music Career.  The Thing I Love more than ANYTHING ON THIS EARTH is a Big Snowstorm.  Maybe you still don’t get it.  

 

I Understand Bad Luck.  But this recently has gotten Absolutely Mother F******* ReDonkulous.  I could Actually chuck an accordion or of the Hilton right now.  

STFU Cory!  You want me to list the storms I missed?  Like the best of the 20th century and many others.  But I’m a grown up so I wish my fellow weather weenies well.

[ROOSTA]

I've never experienced models increase snow amounts continuously run to run right up to the actual event.

Q (quantitative) P (precipitation) F (forecast)

QPF 1.25- 1.75

Being as cold as it is ratio's will be 15-20:1

EQUATES TO 30-40"

My latest FB post HRRR 00z 

[psv88]

Good luck northern neighbors, a historic storm headed your way. Enjoy!

[mostman]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

This is pretty ridiculous. Nice gradient 

[Ginx snewx]

Let's hi def RGEM and call it a day 

[ROOSTA]

For the records

[Fozz]

27 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You people Really don’t understand basic % do you.  Can forecast a Snowstorm like a Champion, but can’t understand Being Home 85% of the time YET still missing almost 2/3’s of the major weather events.  This isn’t hard.  On Top of the fact that there’s Nothing More in life I desire than what you guys are About to see.  You guys have 9-5’s where you stay in your region.  I Travel to perform for a living.  I Don’t have a choice.  

 

But if I had JUST BASIC OK Luck, Not Good, Not Bad, just average, I would have no issue.  

If that 15% of being away in the winter is during peak climo, then you’re going to miss a disproportionate number of big storms. Thats just how it works. Late January and early February is the prime window for KU storms. Not early December or mid March even if they can sometimes happen.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I've never experienced models increase snow amounts continuously run to run right up to the actual event.

Q (quantitative) P (precipitation) F (forecast)

QPF 1.25- 1.75

Being as cold as it is ratio's will be 15-20:1

EQUATES TO 30-40"

My latest FB post HRRR 00z 

Jan 27 2011 Feb 9th 2013

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Scott Koziara said:

I always take the under in these set-ups in extreme Southern New England. We're gonna have newfound respect for the NAM tomorrow night when it's plain rain in the fringes of our forecast area. I'm thinking 9 in Bristol and 5 to 6 here in Newport. These accumulation maps are grossly overdone for places like Newport, the outer cape and the islands. Doesn't have much bearing on 90% of the folks in this subforum but if people take the time to produce a snowfall map they should put a little thought into making it as accurate as possible. 

Expect about 10 in Newport.  I'm expecting about 12-14 here.  If I was a betting man I would take the over, not the under.  While the NAM does like to sniff out the warm layer, I think for this particular storm, its an outlier and should not be weighed heavily in the forecast.  Usually by 12 hours before go time, there's more consensus with the NAM when it's physics are picking up on something earlier than the others.  However, no other model shows as much of a warm layer than the NAM brothers are right now.

It's definitely gonna sleet in Newport - but not as much as depicted on the NAM.  Enjoy being pleasantly surprised.

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If that 15% of being away in the winter is during peak climo, then you’re going to miss a disproportionate number of big storms. Thats just how it works. Late January and early February is the prime window for KU storms. Not early December or mid March even if they can sometimes happen.

He was told this two days ago.  The issue at this point is the repetitiveness of the posts....  the snow will be here when he gets back.  It ain't going anywhere anytime soon, even if we have a dry spell this upcoming week.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

 

You do NOT understand the Basic Math Equation of HOW MUCH I actually AM home every year for winter (My travel is mostly May through November ), and yet HOW MANY of the big events I’ve STILL missed.  I’m not typing them all out again.  I have 12 Hobbies and a Worldwide Music Career.  The Thing I Love more than ANYTHING ON THIS EARTH is a Big Snowstorm.  Maybe you still don’t get it.  

 

I Understand Bad Luck.  But this recently has gotten Absolutely Mother F******* ReDonkulous.  I could Actually chuck an accordion or of the Hilton right now.  

You would be bitching about not getting the Jack anyway. Enjoy the fake snow at the Grammy's. We'll save Ku 2 for you 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This setup is pretty cool. We haven’t really had a storm like this when you combine the type of storm with the magnitude of the airmass. It’s like a Jan ‘05 airmass but a massive juiced SWFE type storm that in a normal winter airmass might front end us and then give a whole mess of IP/ZR/RA well into CNE. But this is not a normal airmass. 

it does feel like that example. I climbed through 500 yards of sewage to come out to a pond in a heavy downpour to cleanse myself. Only I don’t want a heavy downpour lol. But arms in the air praising the Lord of Snow.Andy Dufresne ftw.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

it does feel like that example. I climbed through 500 yards of sewage to come out to a pond in a heavy downpour to cleanse myself. Only I don’t want a heavy downpour lol. But arms in the air praising the Lord of Snow.Andy Dufresne ftw.

 

Many beers in.

[Ginx snewx]

Its that time Grasshoppers. Thank you for your patience. 

Jack's gonna Jack 

Queens gonna Queen

I'm just sitting back smilin

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

it does feel like that example. I climbed through 500 yards of sewage to come out to a pond in a heavy downpour to cleanse myself. Only I don’t want a heavy downpour lol. But arms in the air praising the Lord of Snow.Andy Dufresne ftw.

 

 

[MuddyWx]

uncle beefed up a bit at 0z.. looking good

[ROOSTA]

Everytime I'm in the hospital, which lately has been quite often. 
First thing I do once settled in I tell my nurse "I'm looking into the eyes of an angel".
Each visit is more dire then the previous. 
Attitude is everything.
It's only friggin snow, I think a priority adjustment is in order.    

[Prismshine Productions]

Everytime I'm in the hospital, which lately has been quite often. 
First thing I do once settled in I tell my nurse "I'm looking into the eyes of an angel".
Each visit is more dire then the previous. 
Attitude is everything.
It's only friggin snow, I think a priority adjustment is in order.    

Dude everything alright?...

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Scott Koziara]

I've always appreciated Cory's passion and entertainment value. Never change Cory!

[mostman]

When you don’t QA *all* the edge cases.