“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you. That sort of what I was thinking and that’s the kind of situation where we can end up with 17 or 18 inches of snow. I wish the heaviest stuff was happening during the day, but we can get a real heavy burst before sundown then wake up to a bunch of snow and light to moderate snow for good walks, and that is sort of thing that I like. Long walk in the woods with the dog and deep snow while snow is falling.

I feel like we will need 1.2” liquid for those totals so I’m on the under. Even 15:1 event total for these amounts is high end. I’m on the 10-15” train.

[BrianW]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of the mesos have a TSSN signal Sunday pm/ night from about west central CT on East . 

Yeah. WTNH mentioned that. Looks like Gil wrote it. Haha

Sunday: Very cold with snow developing around 9 am give or take an hour. Steady and heavy snow continuing through the day and into the night. Some thunder-snow also possible! Blowing and drifting snow. There could be a little sleet mixing in SE CT. Highs 15-25. Travel near impossible Sunday evening-overnight!

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I've conceded the sleet/rain/slot at this point but I'll be sleeping at that time anyway. going to be an epic 8-10 hr thump beforehand. And we'll see what happens Monday 

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Twitching Trucks said:

Over on the ME border 20 miles off the coast, this is the yup of set up that we do very well with. Coastal influence encroaching generally up to our doorstep gets us something banding and if we can keep P-type issues at bay, the snow stacks up. The slogging easterly flow snow Monday also adds up here with a little OE influence, and that tends to keep up all the way over toward CON, close to you. I think we’ll do well.


.

Hey, thanks for your reply. Looks like you might be new to posting here? Welcome.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we will need 1.2” liquid for those totals so I’m on the under. Even 15:1 event total for these amounts is high end. I’m on the 10-15” train.

I’m on the 12 to 18 train, but your train tends to get to the station while mine typically gently derails.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m on the 12 to 18 train, but your train tends to get to the station while mine typically gently derails.

There’s a clear qpf gradient along the MA border up to here. We may risk some coastal front exhaust too. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we will need 1.2” liquid for those totals so I’m on the under. Even 15:1 event total for these amounts is high end. I’m on the 10-15” train.

Yes, 10-14” has been my call, I see no reason to change it.

[Twitching Trucks]

Hey, thanks for your reply. Looks like you might be new to posting here? Welcome.

Yeah, long time lurker, don’t post often at all. I prefer to absorb and decipher as much as I can while keeping quiet so as not to look a fool. Really looking forward to this event, and will likely be out in it all night plowing.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, 10-14” has been my call, I see no reason to change it.

I'm going 8-12 as it stands.  Should we have movement in the next 12 hours, of course we can adjust.  But not feeling it.  This ihas been locked for a couple days.

If this gradient were between I-84 and NYC, Kevin would be posting "these always come north....".  

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm going 8-12 as it stands.  Should we have movement in the next 12 hours, of course we can adjust.  But not feeling it.  This ihas been locked for a couple days.

Bowel?

[HoarfrostHubb]

14-18” here unless Ray is right about ORH hills enhancement 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, dryslot said:

Bowel?

Fully clenched.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

14-18” here unless Ray is right about ORH hills enhancement 

You're 18+

[moneypitmike]

I've wasted a week of my life on what might be a borderline MECS.  Hate to see it.

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s more hang back mid level goodies as the upper trough approaches and eventually swings through Mon night. Probably high ratio dendritic aggregates (think clumps of dendrites that cling together). Usually it’s like a 3/4sm high end -SN but it accumulates really efficiently.

I think that’s going to be a critical part of whatever happens out my way since we’re likely on the lowest side of the QPF gradient. If we can get a robust presence of ML magic we’ll pile it up. I think. 

Funny how this is my first real synoptic event here. 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a clear qpf gradient along the MA border up to here. We may risk some coastal front exhaust too. 

Ratios and rumors of ratios

[dryslot]

Looks like some blowing and drifting in the cards

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -6. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -8. Light northeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Monday

Snow. High near 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[Prismshine Productions]

There's going to be a insane band somewhere in SNE to southern VT/NH

Don't give me false hope like that

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

Sums it up in a nutshell, Some areas may end up under the dry slot.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
Forecast is still on track for a significant winter storm
Sunday and Monday across the forecast area. We`re entering the
time range where we can start picking out smaller features that
can make a difference in snow rates and totals for the event.
The primary messaging stands firm: significant travel impacts
can be expected Sunday afternoon/evening and persisting through
at least Monday evening. Increasing winds through the period
will easily blow and drift the fluffier snow character,
challenging snow removal in open and unprotected stretches of
roadway.

One smaller scale feature to watch amid the larger system will
be ocean effect enhancement along the southern ME coast and NH
Seacoast. Given the very cold airmass preceding the storm, the
relatively warmer waters will provide some low level
instability harboring locally stronger lift. Onshore flow Sunday
evening through much of the night would bring some snow
enhancement along the I95 corridor in York and Rockingham Co.
Flow becomes more parallel to the coast come Monday morning,
reducing this added effect, but greater storm dynamics will
still be in play.

Mesoscale banding will be another feature to watch amid a very
expansive precip shield through Monday. 850/700mb frontogenesis
depicted in NAM/GFS runs is fairly progressive as it lifts
through New England Sunday evening. While deterministic and not
set in stone, this can provide good insight into how quickly a
stronger band of snow could transit the region. The current
timeline overlaps with ensemble guidance suggesting heavy snow
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during the overnight hours.

Finally, a factor that could hamper snow accumulations. Overall
trend in the storm has been an earlier onset and slow northern
crawl. Despite the abundant and anomalous moisture content with
this system, the lifecycle of low pressure systems usually
features a dry slot contingent on the low`s maturity. This
northern crawl the past few days has brought this feature closer
to the forecast area, nosing in from southern New England. This
would bring a period of less efficient snowfall. Still early to
factor this in effectively for the forecast, but an item to
watch.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fear the warm nose and the dryslut 

[dendrite]

I don’t quite understand the dryslot concerns for up here?

[Torch Tiger]

ttte

[dryslot]

We should start to get into HREF range today.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t quite understand the dryslot concerns for up here?

Maybe they anticipate a further north trend?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Maybe they anticipate a further north trend?

It’s weird wording to me. H5 was always going to slot with the trough to the west. I assume they mean H7, but it was always an isentropic push anyway…the saturated column is cold so it’s all snow below the relatively warmer nose.

Unless they’re worried about Monday not panning out with northerly bumps. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s weird wording to me. H5 was always going to slot with the trough to the west. I assume they mean H7, but it was always an isentropic push anyway…the saturated column is cold so it’s all snow below the relatively warmer nose.

Unless they’re worried about Monday not panning out with northerly bumps. 

It would have to be H7 if your getting precip shut off, That was what i was thinking.

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t quite understand the dryslot concerns for up here?

100% agree.  Maybe they're referencing coastal NH?  Even there.....I don't see why they'd raise it.

I like their point about the southern Maine Coast.....that's really where the storm will have greatest impact.  Once you head along the coast north of PWM toward the mid-coast, the latitude and it's orientation of the wind WRT the coastline stymies the higher qpf.  We need a bodily northward shift of the system.  Ain't happening, James.

[dryslot]

06z GFS on bufkit 0.73" qpf for here, You can do more with less qpf because of ratios

260126/0700Z  49  03010KT   9.2F  SNOW   17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074   18:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
260126/0800Z  50  02010KT   9.2F  SNOW   25:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   18:1|  9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0
260126/0900Z  51  02011KT   9.6F  SNOW   29:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056   20:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
260126/1000Z  52  02009KT   9.9F  SNOW   28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   20:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0
260126/1100Z  53  02010KT  10.3F  SNOW   28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   21:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61  100|  0|  0
260126/1200Z  54  02010KT  10.5F  SNOW   30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   21:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260126/1300Z  55  02010KT  10.7F  SNOW   30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   21:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0
260126/1400Z  56  02010KT  11.6F  SNOW   28:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   21:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
260126/1500Z  57  02010KT  13.5F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68  100|  0|  0
260126/1600Z  58  02011KT  15.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68    0|  0|  0
260126/1700Z  59  02011KT  16.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68    0|  0|  0
260126/1800Z  60  02010KT  16.2F  SNOW   23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260126/1900Z  61  01010KT  16.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|  0
260126/2000Z  62  01009KT  16.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|  0
260126/2100Z  63  02009KT  15.2F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
260126/2200Z  64  02008KT  14.3F  SNOW   17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0
260126/2300Z  65  01007KT  13.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0
260127/0000Z  66  36006KT  13.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   21:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260127/0100Z  67  36005KT  13.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
260127/0200Z  68  01004KT  13.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

[512high]

Never did a call for my city, but I will say 12-15". My co-wrk bought a new sled, he has been in Allagash Maine since Wednesday, due to come back Sunday PM, dragging a trailer...lol see you Tuesday.

[Ginx snewx]

LFG 6z GFS Kuchera 6Z Euro depth