“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Go Kart Mozart]

I didn't love the 500mb evolution on the NAM.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. Smell it, sniff it…then collect some more on the backside. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Well that's the last time I root for EMASS or north of the pike lmao , celebrating our sleet down here massholes lol.. crazy how even though it taints when we slot we still get 12-16" easily with those ratios .. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I couid see 15-20 mph but that’s not a biggie . Just don’t want patches of wind blown grass which I’ve seen here in blizzards 

I hear ya... I have so much wind that it is a rare storm that doesn't strip a quarter of my property clean... Meanwhile big drifts elsewhere...out road drifts over enough that they leave a payloader parked up here.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Smell it, sniff it…then collect some more on the backside. 

I'd prefer it to stay in the sound 

[Prismshine Productions]

Seems to exit stage right quicker?

Only hr84, here is the 500mb and 850mb vort, coastal could still ramp up

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well that's the last time I root for EMASS or north of the pike lmao , celebrating our sleet down here massholes lol.. crazy how even though it taints when we slot we still get 12-16" easily with those ratios .. 

I was intrigued by the 500 trough at hr 84. No doubt it would invigorate the low a bit later in the morning.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That initial thump is going to have widespread 1" - 2" per hour rates.  Do not travel type stuff. 

[OrangeCTWX]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM juiced AF. Almost taints S coast of CT and RI.

Meh it’s like 12 hours of snow before the sleet line makes it here, and at that time we are about to dry slot anyways. It’s like a SWFE as others have stated but we should have a lot more hours of snow before it possibly changes over. 

[CoastalWx]

The initial s/w rips sp far NW which helps bring the warmer air aloft in despite the low so far south. A very tilted low for sure.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was intrigued by the 500 trough at hr 84. No doubt it would invigorate the low a bit later in the morning.

no doubt, can't complain too much about that outcome, we'd pound for a while before mixing 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I'd prefer it to stay in the sound 

Well yea but that would crank post slot so I don’t mind it. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, OrangeCTWX said:

Meh it’s like 12 hours of snow before the sleet line makes it here, and at that time we are about to dry slot anyways. It’s like a SWFE as others have stated but we should have a lot more hours of snow before it possibly changes over. 

First "meh" of the night, everybody drink. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

no doubt, can't complain too much about that outcome, we'd pound for a while before mixing 

If that even happens. It is the nam towards the end of its run.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Meh it’s like 12 hours of snow before the sleet line makes it here, and at that time we are about to dry slot anyways. It’s like a SWFE as others have stated but we should have a lot more hours of snow before it possibly changes over. 

12 hours of mod to heavy snow , I'll take that all day, this is a juiced SWFE, then a chance of more snow after a dry slot .. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

In Clinton at 350ASL. Any particular benefits of this location regarding snowfall? Also start time of significant snow?

I would want to be above 500', but especially 700'.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I didn't love the 500mb evolution on the NAM.

I did. It Showed more potential with the CCB imo. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I did. It Showed more potential with the CCB imo. 

Yeah, no doubt a coastal low or strong CCB cranks up mid morning

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

First "meh" of the night, everybody drink. 

He was "meh"ing the impact of mixing, though.....doesn't count.

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

First "meh" of the night, everybody drink. 

It's mehmbogenesis, baby!

[dendrite]

That run would shorten the period of deep max DGZ for many too. It’s probably just the NAM doing its own synoptic things rather than nailing the mid level warming. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, last night and today was def a net-gainer for me....the 2" of fluff hardly melted with a high of 43.9 and low dews. Will do a pre-storm depth measurement later this weekend, but must be at least 6" still.

[msg112469]

2 hours ago, Masswx said:

This is absolutely the right idea! The CF between 128 and 495 and another front hanging back a bit in western Mass.

[Spaizzo]

Well that's the last time I root for EMASS or north of the pike lmao , celebrating our sleet down here massholes lol.. crazy how even though it taints when we slot we still get 12-16" easily with those ratios .. 

Isn’t there always a southern adjustment to show time usually?


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

This is absolutely the right idea! The CF between 128 and 495 and another front hanging back a bit in western Mass.

That's more upslope than a front....only issue I have with it is I would have included East slopes or ORH hills and Monadnocks.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, last night and today was def a net-gainer for me....the 2" of fluff hardly melted with a high of 43.9 and low dews. Will do a pre-storm depth measurement later this weekend, but must be at least 6" still.

Areas that weren't sun soaked still have 3-4" here too. Despite all that time above 32.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Spaizzo said:

Isn’t there always a southern adjustment to show time usually?


.

Not with SWFEs usually....if there is, it doesn't work out.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Spaizzo said:

Isn’t there always a southern adjustment to show time usually?


.

messenger shuffle, but it's not always

its works in mysterious ways

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I nailed this +TNH, but kicking myself for not pegging the KU window in latter January as opposed to the slight chance in early December. Early March one I am fine with, but Jan 2022 was one of my primary analogs....I also wanted to use Feb 2015 bc it was THE BEST QBO/solar match and this La Niña has a warm subsurface, but I left it out because it was warm ENSO.

Nice call, Steve....doesn't matter how well I do, something could alway be better. I'm done refraining from including opposite ENSO state if they are strong in other areas, assuming a modest ENSO event.

nah, you pretty much nailed this period, anyone who can see teles and so on could see that post 1/17ish was going to be a good opportunity for so good stuff, but a KU I was hoping not positive, also we still have until around the second week of Feb with a decent pattern imo

[78Blizzard]

The 0z NAM was a definite improvement qpf-wise from 18z.