“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z AI looks good though 

my snowmap may be conservative for upstate

[Winter Wizard]

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

[MJO812]

Just now, Winter Wizard said:

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

Always does this with snowstorms

[Winter Wizard]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Always does this with snowstorms

Its own AI is north. Just seems like typical GFS shenanigans at play. 

[Damage In Tolland]

All modeling shows a nice wrap around/ backlash / hang back all day Monday into Monday night. That alone will add 2-4+ more in addition 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro ripping in dry air at 500 (maybe that’s above everything and doesn’t matter) and the 750 and 800 center taking a trip to Montreal just don’t scream widespread 12”+ to me. 

 

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has the 850 low into NY state with the 850 WF just off south coast. You want 12”+ then you really want to see closed 850 to our south. Not always the case…but it’s something to keep in mind and a reality check. 

agree

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs looks great…not the model you want to show clean phasing. 

[Prismshine Productions]

By comparison, good bump north on the GFS AI

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[dryslot]

That 18z GFS was a reality check, Was trending towards the other guidance then puked all over itself.

[Prismshine Productions]

That 18z GFS was a reality check, Was trending towards the other guidance then puked all over itself.

Ens going to be telling there

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[dryslot]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Ens going to be telling there

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On the phone so can’t do comparisons but my thinking is it had less or no phase.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS north of 12z through hr96

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS north of 12z through hr96

Yep was just looking at that too, OP sold

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[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

On the phone so can’t do comparisons but my thinking is it had less or no phase.

Northern stream didn’t phase in and actually kept pace and interfered with the leading southern energy.

[Hoth]

27 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

Pretty sure it didn’t latch onto Feb ‘13 until the day of the storm. 

[dendrite]

No bueno

[ineedsnow]

GEFS trended better    op tossed

[Prismshine Productions]

Ensembles ticked better, OP was just the trashcan

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[ineedsnow]

18z CMC only goes out to hr 84 but definitely more amped compared to 12z

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z CMC only goes out to hr 84 but definitely more amped compared to 12z

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast 

yup see what the Euro does in about 30 minutes

[ineedsnow]

AI GFS ENS coming in north of 12z

[ORH_wxman]

18z GEFS looking better than OP (and also the 12z GEFS) makes it even easier to toss that 18z OP GFS run. We were tossing it anyway, but now it's more of a violent toss. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast 

Ugh not good.

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

12z was further south

[Johnno]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ugh not good.

Hope it’s not congrats dendrite by Friday 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Johnno said:

Hope it’s not congrats dendrite by Friday 

Yeah I am in complete shock that it went from congrats Delmarva to touching the sleet line in 24 hours. 

[Prismshine Productions]

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast 

Here is the comparison, 18z on bottom

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Here is the comparison, 18z on top

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18z is on the bottom