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“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco


TheSnowman
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12 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Having a dynamic SLR is great. I find it can still be a little high with cold environments, especially if lacking deep lift. There is also the thing with high ratio snows where compaction begin quite quickly as amounts increase. The resulting 6hr, 12hr, end of storm measurements, etc. can be quite different in these setups. 

YES...several inches.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

That was a great positive bust over performer for N/NE MA. I was just looking at the forecast essex and they were going 6-10 in Essex i remember we had a map for most of SNE for 5-10 and Nrn Ma ended up with 12-19.

Kinda funny that storm doesnt get referred to often as one of those big ones, but it was a big dog for some. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big difference with respect to who gets porked.

That particular prog likes the triangle of you to Will to Scooter… looks like the classic Essex County flow.  Remember a few of those from back in the WWBB days when Topsfield and Danvers always seemed to jackpot.

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20 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If you didn't have that desire to sit next to Justin Timberlake at an awards show every February then you'd be home for a storm once in a while. 

 

You don’t get to sit next to the stars, only the stars can.  I sit in the Front row for the premieres. but the 8pm show You all see ids only about 4% of the Grammy Awards.  And when it’s an honor to be a voting member + it’s $1000 for the tickets even though Only members can go + you make some lucky girls life by being able to go, YOU GO.  

 

I’ll be home ALL OF FEBRUARY.  Was home the past 2 1/2 Months.  I don’t know what more I’m supposed to do.  

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That particular prog likes the triangle of you to Will to Scooter… looks like the classic Essex County flow.  Remember a few of those from back in the WWBB days when Topsfield and Danvers always seemed to jackpot.

SSTs are only like 40, plus antecedent air mass...pour the ocean all over me like baby oil...just lather me up

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I think 48 hour max for watches, right?

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence.

Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package. 

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28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

To me this looks like a hellacious thump to slot for 8-12 hours then maybe we can fill in some more snow Sunday overnight into Monday.

CNE and NNE may have longer duration. Moderate snow 

In agreement with this but might remove the word hellacious from my current thinking.

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence.

Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package. 

when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

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Just to reiterate ... this is a low-grade cyclone and associated parametrics, but having a disproportionately larger ( much larger relative to climo on such cyclones - ) QPF potential due to maximizing PWAT anomalous air mass transported up and over cold/isentropic burst. 

I don't have a lot of personal faith in the idea of this thing having a lag back low pressure and active CCB - or if so...would that even be strong enough to be appreciably larger than what happens from the front loaded IB.  

As it looks now ( as in at this time) I'd go with .7 .. .9  if asked, and it's probably pretty evenly distributed ... or more so than the banding that happens from deeper cyclonic mechanics

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

Theres different stuff floating around but its been up to 72 hours for a while. BOXs criteria says 24-48+. Its usually within 24-48, but theyll go up to 72 if needed and based on where they are now, id bet its tomorrow pm. 

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