“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true up there. Was looking at the stuff from Kev to ORH

Shave of a tenth max.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

probably the biggest storm since March 2023 here

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

[powderfreak]

This should be storm total.

Thanks for including us Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Having a dynamic SLR is great. I find it can still be a little high with cold environments, especially if lacking deep lift. There is also the thing with high ratio snows where compaction begin quite quickly as amounts increase. The resulting 6hr, 12hr, end of storm measurements, etc. can be quite different in these setups. 

YES...several inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

This should be storm total.

Looks like the flow is becoming more ENE with this further N track...

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Tonight's isn't squat really.

 

 

 

Puts down a couple in spots 

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the flow is becoming more ENE with this further N track...

Yeah clear on that map on the EMA striations that there’s onshore enhancement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah clear on that map on the EMA striations that there’s onshore enhancement.

Big difference with respect to who gets porked.

[Ginx snewx]

Jesus man

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

That was a great positive bust over performer for N/NE MA. I was just looking at the forecast essex and they were going 6-10 in Essex i remember we had a map for most of SNE for 5-10 and Nrn Ma ended up with 12-19.

Kinda funny that storm doesnt get referred to often as one of those big ones, but it was a big dog for some. 

[Kitz Craver]

This looks simply like a SWFE on roids, did we lose the coastal component?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big difference with respect to who gets porked.

That particular prog likes the triangle of you to Will to Scooter… looks like the classic Essex County flow.  Remember a few of those from back in the WWBB days when Topsfield and Danvers always seemed to jackpot.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Friday the earliest

Yeah, I think 48 hour max for watches, right?

[mostman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

What did you end up with in 1/24? That was about 14 here, and we aren’t far apart. 

[TheSnowman]

20 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If you didn't have that desire to sit next to Justin Timberlake at an awards show every February then you'd be home for a storm once in a while. 

 

You don’t get to sit next to the stars, only the stars can.  I sit in the Front row for the premieres. but the 8pm show You all see ids only about 4% of the Grammy Awards.  And when it’s an honor to be a voting member + it’s $1000 for the tickets even though Only members can go + you make some lucky girls life by being able to go, YOU GO.  

 

I’ll be home ALL OF FEBRUARY.  Was home the past 2 1/2 Months.  I don’t know what more I’m supposed to do.  

[dryslot]

12z EPS has a big cluster to the west of the mean from the 06z run.

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

I don't think this is going to match 12/24/25 here although it could be close if we keep up this trend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mostman said:

What did you end up with in 1/24? That was about 14 here, and we aren’t far apart. 

19"...I got OES assist. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That particular prog likes the triangle of you to Will to Scooter… looks like the classic Essex County flow.  Remember a few of those from back in the WWBB days when Topsfield and Danvers always seemed to jackpot.

SSTs are only like 40, plus antecedent air mass...pour the ocean all over me like baby oil...just lather me up

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I think 48 hour max for watches, right?

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence.

Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

SSTs are only like 40, plus antecedent air mass...pour the ocean all over me like baby oil...just lather me up

There’s gonna be a nasty CF in Essex county. 

[Chrisrotary12]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

To me this looks like a hellacious thump to slot for 8-12 hours then maybe we can fill in some more snow Sunday overnight into Monday.

CNE and NNE may have longer duration. Moderate snow 

In agreement with this but might remove the word hellacious from my current thinking.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence.

Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package. 

when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I think 48 hour max for watches, right?

[Typhoon Tip]

Just to reiterate ... this is a low-grade cyclone and associated parametrics, but having a disproportionately larger ( much larger relative to climo on such cyclones - ) QPF potential due to maximizing PWAT anomalous air mass transported up and over cold/isentropic burst. 

I don't have a lot of personal faith in the idea of this thing having a lag back low pressure and active CCB - or if so...would that even be strong enough to be appreciably larger than what happens from the front loaded IB.  

As it looks now ( as in at this time) I'd go with .7 .. .9  if asked, and it's probably pretty evenly distributed ... or more so than the banding that happens from deeper cyclonic mechanics

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

Theres different stuff floating around but its been up to 72 hours for a while. BOXs criteria says 24-48+. Its usually within 24-48, but theyll go up to 72 if needed and based on where they are now, id bet its tomorrow pm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s gonna be a nasty CF in Essex county. 

Hopefully Haverhill 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

In agreement with this but might remove the word hellacious from my current thinking.

Watch out, you might catch shit for this lol.

But I agree. I’m selling any secondary involvement. I’d guess this ends up a pretty uniform 6-10” spot 12

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is closer to an icon solution than anything else.

[tunafish]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the flow is becoming more ENE with this further N track...

YLTSI