1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

It was weird. Last night I was driving home and it was still 70 out. I had the windows down and it felt chilly. Im like wtf is happening. Normally even if its 50 im still warm down here. Im turning into a true Floridian. I think toledo may jackpot with this. They will be near the heavier precip and may max out with the ratios.

My Dr. told me once that N folks are a hearty bunch. Our bodies are tuned to rapid changes, so we adjust quickly. After this cold, 30 will feel like t-shirt wx. While 30 in the Fall warrants a winter coat. 

[Malacka11]

12 minutes ago, roardog said:

The posters just wishing for a big storm still have lots of time left. It’s only January.

I instinctively 100d you and I still agree but selfishly there's only about a month of Malacka Winter™ left and about half of that is apparently fixing to be CAD unironically now...

Not complaining but it do be like that

[Harry Perry]

It’s not over til it’s over. 

[mimillman]

GFS says congrats Baton Rouge next weekend lol 

[ILSNOW]

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

[Baum]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

We have a reason #9 to discount a model run:

9. If all else fails pull the BAM weather lever.

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

that idea is already a bust, since all other guidance caved to the gfs.

[MidwestChaser]

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

 

[DocATL]

Maybe getting an inch was an overreach on my part. I had a bad feeling the GFS was right on this one. Oh well...on to Fabulous February.

[ILSNOW]

7 minutes ago, Baum said:

We have a reason #9 to discount a model run:

9. If all else fails pull the BAM weather lever.

Desperate holding out for 3-4 lake induced flakes on Sunday.

[Chicago916]

12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

Our friends? Idts.

[mimillman]

7 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Maybe getting an inch was an overreach on my part. I had a bad feeling the GFS was right on this one. Oh well...on to Fabulous February.

Torch 

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Torch 

i have some bad news.

[DocATL]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i have some bad news.

Relentless northwest flow and phantom dusters? Cuz yeah that would be bad news.

[A-L-E-K]

this one is kind of dusting out everywhere huh

[Danny8]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Today and tomorrow is dangerous stay inside cold. But the rest of the week i will be in my glory. Deep powder and frigid winter air. Will absolutely be bundling up and taking some scenic walks.

Im heading to family in Detroit area tomorrow morning for the week, hoping to get in some good cross country skiing. However like Beavis I was also out for a walk just to feel the -9 in Chicago this morning lol

[Harry Perry]

1-3” call looking money. 

[Stevo6899]

Think it may be more the gfs getting lucky with the outperformance so far. Lots of factors with phasing and the cold to the north. Will come down to now casting for those on the northern fringes

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

 

This winter definitely has the markings of one that would make you happy but leave others wanting more.

No big storms and possibly not even a Winter Storm headline for Wayne County, but constannt cold, almost daily flurries or nickel/dime events and increasingly deep snowcover.

Weve had lot of advisories, no warnings, though arguably Jan 15th couldve been a warning (it went from a 50% chance of snow to an advisory halfway through lol). 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

The posters just wishing for a big storm still have lots of time left. It’s only January.

Agree. February has been our pot of gold frequently in recent years. I believe either Sunday or Monday is the exact halfway mark of the snow season average-wise.

Breakdown of 6”+ snowstorms at Detroit by month (Nov 1880 – Jan 2026)
Nov- 8
Dec- 37
Jan- 45
Feb- 46
Mar- 31
Apr- 4
 

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

Im heading to family in Detroit area tomorrow morning for the week, hoping to get in some good cross country skiing. However like Beavis I was also out for a walk just to feel the -9 in Chicago this morning lol

Enjoy! The cross country skiing should be phenomenal. With multiple layers of snow and plenty of compacting/settling/drifting, its that perfect "packed powder"

[michsnowfreak]

Hopefully the bleeding has stopped. Still a difference between American and foreign models.

Temps will be in the low teens during the snowfall

12z qpf for DTW
ICON- 0.15
GFS- 0.18
NAM- 0.24
GEM- 0.31
EUR- 0.31
RGEM- 0.36
 

[King James]

Hopefully the bleeding has stopped. Still a difference between American and foreign models.
Temps will be in the low teens during the snowfall
12z qpf for DTW
ICON- 0.15
GFS- 0.18
NAM- 0.24
GEM- 0.31
EUR- 0.31
RGEM- 0.36
 

GFS looks like a pretty big outlier here

[cyclone77]

What is this BAM weather.  The guy from Jackass?

[sbnwx85]

Catching up this morning — too bad most guidance showing the drying trend on the north side of this system. Hopefully ratios make up for lack of QPF but 3” of system snow seems like a lock here. We’ll see what the lake can deliver on Monday.

[Stevo6899]

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. February has been our pot of gold frequently in recent years. I believe either Sunday or Monday is the exact halfway mark of the snow season average-wise.

Breakdown of 6”+ snowstorms at Detroit by month (Nov 1880 – Jan 2026)
Nov- 8
Dec- 37
Jan- 45
Feb- 46
Mar- 31
Apr- 4
 

Can you please update this to show since 2000.

[Sciascia]

32 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

What is this BAM weather.

Emeril Lagasse’s cooking up some forecasts now.

[A-L-E-K]

 

u getting out powerball? what's the generator situation?

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Can you please update this to show since 2000.

Nov- 2
Dec- 12
Jan- 10
Feb- 13
Mar- 4
Apr- 1

[Stevo6899]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nov- 2
Dec- 12
Jan- 10
Feb- 13
Mar- 4
Apr- 1

Wow I was expecting December to have alot less. Most of those must've occured in the early 2000's. Thanks for doing that.