January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Newman]

Deep down I'm hoping y'all pull a November 2018 and the warm nose ends up less pronounced and things stay snow longer.

[MGorse]

What a freaking mess! 

If heavier rates can hold on longer that could be enough to keep the warm layer colder and thus hang onto snow longer.

[pl0k00n111]

My work was cancelled Monday, they actually turned it into a furlowed day. I joked saying watch us get nothing. But obviously the sleet and ice will make a dangerous situation.  

[coastal front]

These initial warm air advection regimens usually come in early and that should help before the real warm surge off the upper level low tracking to our west. We will thump and thump good but totals will really come down to how we perform in 6-8 hours.


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[Hurricane Agnes]

Was looking at some cool temp animations that I generated from the 12z 3k NAM for 2m & 700mb temps.  You can see what the NAM thinks is the issue...

[anthonyweather]

Agnes can post the pretty maps, but looks like the NAM is spitting out 2.5” of IP. That will be fun to shovel.

Yikes


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[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Still going with my call: 3-5” snow Philly, then sleet accumulation, and a glaze at the end

Immediate burbs 4-8”, then sleet and ZR

My coworker last night asked me if we were getting a foot of snow in Philly Ralph, I feel like when we’re sleeting and raining all afternoon people are going to be complaining about the forecasts, but at least the warning is out there that is a major event in totality. Wonder if it’ll hit a nesis scale


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This almost mirrors my FB call. Great minds think alike. Ppl that follow 2 days ago were asking why they should trust me regarding the changeover because the news isnt mentioning. Nobody is forced to trust anyone. The TV news is there for ratings and most FB 'forecasters' are there for clicks. I dont even know what clicks are nor how to make a profit nor do I care to. I put out calls as a service, but more for myself so I can go back and grade it after a storm.

Anyway, good luck. I have my area at 4-7" before the flip.

[Violentweatherfan]

15 minutes ago, Newman said:

Deep down I'm hoping y'all pull a November 2018 and the warm nose ends up less pronounced and things stay snow longer.

I felt we’ve over performed with every snow event and I think we will with this one. It’ll still flip but we’ll get at least 10 inches of snow prior to changing and dry slot 

[Newman]

I would probably drop my totals for Berks from 10-14" to 8-12". At this point, it kinda is what it is. A flip to sleet is looking inevitable up to at least the I-78 corridor. I would not rule out 14" for Berks though if something like the HRDPS or FV3 come to fruition. I would also not rule out 6" if one of the aggressively warmer models works out. A blend puts you at 8-12. We're at the stage where much of the public has already made up their ideas of this storm based on forecasts they saw 1-2 days ago. We'll know what the final verdict is by tomorrow night.

Basically, it's down to nowcasting.

[Violentweatherfan]

29 minutes ago, MGorse said:

What a freaking mess! 

If heavier rates can hold on longer that could be enough to keep the warm layer colder and thus hang onto snow longer.

 But this storm is/was fascinating to watch evolve and learn from

[ChescoWx]

Across Chesco I think a solid 7" to 10" (SE to NW) of snow (6" - 8" snow/and 1" to 2" of sleet) with some ZR snizzle at the end. NAM leading the way

 

[JTA66]

11 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I’m sticking with my 6-10” idea, though leaning toward the lower end now. Still, get under the heavier rates and delay the changeover by an hour or two, 8” is still possible.

This has been my idea since Thursday. Since then, my confidence has decreased, not increased. But I’ll let it ride and go down with ship if need be.

Meanwhile, I’ll be at the whiskey & chocolate fest in Oaks today picking up storm supplies.

[mattinpa]

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

This has been my idea since Thursday. Since then, my confidence has decreased, not increased. But I’ll let it ride and go down with ship if need be.

Meanwhile, I’ll be at the whiskey & chocolate fest in Oaks today picking up storm supplies.

Might as well stick to it. I’m a lot older now than when I first joined here and sleet/ice is no fun at all. 

[Heisy]

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right?


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[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, pl0k00n111 said:

My work was cancelled Monday, they actually turned it into a furlowed day. I joked saying watch us get nothing. But obviously the sleet and ice will make a dangerous situation.  

It's interesting that even I have no work scheduled for Monday. Usually with winter storms we still have work orders, and if we can,or choose to run, we can.

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right?


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It was all sleet from start to finish, Lower Bucks County was at about three inches 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

 But this storm is/was fascinating to watch evolve and learn from

Yet some never learn the NAM excels at seeing the warm tongue before other guidance and go into denial when it leads the way 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right?


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Iirc I got 3" sleet down in Upper Darby when I lived there

[MGorse]

14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

 But this storm is/was fascinating to watch evolve and learn from

Or pulling your hair out trying to message this mess to the public and partners. 

[anthonyweather]

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right?


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6-8” Lehigh

[JTA66]

7 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Might as well stick to it. I’m a lot older now than when I first joined here and sleet/ice is no fun at all. 

It’s all about perspective, right? It’s a letdown because we were looking at the potential of a foot or more of snow earlier in the week.

But what if we were looking at a rainstorm earlier in the week and it evolved into this? We’d be doing cartwheels.

That’s why an old-timer met likes to say, “enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you got.”

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

How much sleet did we get in the 2007 storm. This has to be up there in one of the most we’ve gotten in a while right?


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I'd say 3-4". I was driving through Oaks/Collegeville on Rt 422. It was a weird driving experience. Steering the car just felt funny and strange...

11F/DP -5 

[Birds~69]

5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

It’s all about perspective, right? It’s a letdown because we were looking at the potential of a foot or more of snow earlier in the week.

But what if we were looking at a rainstorm earlier in the week and it evolved into this? We’d be doing cartwheels.

That’s why an old-timer met likes to say, “enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you got.”

None of this will make a young buck of a weenie feel better...

 

[mattinpa]

7 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

It’s all about perspective, right? It’s a letdown because we were looking at the potential of a foot or more of snow earlier in the week.

But what if we were looking at a rainstorm earlier in the week and it evolved into this? We’d be doing cartwheels.

That’s why an old-timer met likes to say, “enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you got.”

That’s true. So far this winter has surprised in good ways so maybe that continues. 

[JTA66]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

None of this will make a young buck of a weenie feel better...

 

I think I’m so traumatized from a decade of crap winters that anything non-liquid falling from the sky feels like a win. 

[Chadzachadam]

Man everyone on here going against Mt Holly…I don’t doubt the warm nose but even if we change over by noon tomorrow that’s like 6-8 hours of snow first, some of which should be quite heavy. And rates from 11-2ish might be high enough to keep us snow for a bit longer as well, should be the height  of the precip

[Physicsteve]

Im not so sure it’s against Mt. Holly, I think we are all just hedging and mentally preparing for the low-end snow totals to verify and recent climo and short-range models suggest the warm nose will not be denied.

 

Eta: most or all of us know it’s not often wise to go against mt. Holly. Just reading the afd’s shows they’re some of the best and brightest who we’re lucky to have.

(guy who doesnt like change here prefers the old afd format and laments the need to change messaging to meet the public )

[Chadzachadam]

4 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Im not so sure it’s against Mt. Holly, I think we are all just hedging and mentally preparing for the low-end snow totals to verify and recent climo and short-range models suggest the warm nose will not be denied. 

I’ve seen a lot of 4-6” though which feels crazy low. We got that last weekend 

[Lady Di]

Thank you all for the wonderful insight regarding this storm.  Have 2-5 gal cans of propane which should give me 8 to 10 hrs of heat. Losing power is my fear with this one. Also going to crank up the heat tomorrow morning for a bit.  
 

13F feels like 1. It’s cold. 

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I think I’m so traumatized from a decade of crap winters that anything non-liquid falling from the sky feels like a win. 

I'm   as well and agree. I'm just glad this thing isn't turning to plain rain w/temps bolting to the 50s. If not snow, I'm in small camp and would rather have major ice storm than sleet. We haven't had one in a while but if sleet is all we have on the table, I'll take it. And w/the expected temps this week it will be a brick out there for a while...

12F/DP -2