January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Hurricane Agnes]

18z GFSes (total qpf) - 

[MickeyTim6533]

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

[The Iceman]

21z NBM from the MA thread

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice.

18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N.

Need the bleeding to stop soon. 

 

 

[CoolHandMike]

54 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

Welcome, neighbor!

[Newman]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice.

18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N.

Need the bleeding to stop soon. 

 

 

Starting to get concerned about the way this is evolving, but would love to get through the next 0z and 12z runs to hopefully tick back south. There's no breathing room anymore for I-95 and Philly crew, and teetering on the edge for Lehigh Valley. No reason anyone should cliff jump yet though, we haven't even gotten into the NAM range

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice.

18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N.

Need the bleeding to stop soon. 

 

 

If I had to make forecast right now I’d say 6-10” along 95 areas with a change over to sleet and freezing rain towards the end of the storm.  
 

NE Maryland 8-12” before flip to sleet and Frz Rain 
 

South Jersey 5-8” before flip 

Right at the beaches 4-6” before flip to sleet freezing rain then just rain. 

Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties:

10-15” some sleet may mix in at times 

I think our max amounts as of right now is 16” favored northwestern Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties. 
 

Poconos 10” 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hurricane Schwartz posted a couple videos on social media. Common sense stuff...ignore the social media clickbait hype, dont trust anyone putting number amounts out yet at this range.

He went onto add how well the euro ai and their ens have been verifying since early last summer essentially leading the way in model guidance.

He then said this is actually an easy storm to forecast believe it or not, and will come down to i95 basically being the demarcation for the farthest n and w the mix will generally get with big amounts just to the left of that zone.

[Duca892]

Whether shifts south or mix I don’t think the epic totals of 15-18in are going to verify. Those seemed to be the extreme case

[MickeyTim6533]

25 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Welcome, neighbor!

thank you!

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Whether shifts south or mix I don’t think the epic totals of 15-18in are going to verify. Those seemed to be the extreme case

Places NW of the mix line are still 100% in play to see totals near 15-18in, and that could easily set up still across the Lehigh Valley or even just NW of I-95. Even if this thing continues to trend towards a glorified SWFE, some places could grab 12" in just 4-6 hours if the models are correct.

There was a SWFE quite a few years back (don't remember which one) where Berks grabbed 8-10" in 4-5 hours. Just extend the duration on this one.

[mattinpa]

Still a significant snow and heard the EPS looked better. So hope that’s a good sign for the 0z runs. 

[penndotguy]

29 minutes ago, Newman said:

Places NW of the mix line are still 100% in play to see totals near 15-18in, and that could easily set up still across the Lehigh Valley or even just NW of I-95. Even if this thing continues to trend towards a glorified SWFE, some places could grab 12" in just 4-6 hours if the models are correct.

There was a SWFE quite a few years back (don't remember which one) where Berks grabbed 8-10" in 4-5 hours. Just extend the duration on this one.

I do kinda remember that, I lived in Barto it was ridiculous 02 maybe?

[MacChump]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

love the enthusiasm, you'll balance out No Snow Flo and reestablish our equilibrium

[Albedoman]

32 minutes ago, Newman said:

Places NW of the mix line are still 100% in play to see totals near 15-18in, and that could easily set up still across the Lehigh Valley or even just NW of I-95. Even if this thing continues to trend towards a glorified SWFE, some places could grab 12" in just 4-6 hours if the models are correct.

There was a SWFE quite a few years back (don't remember which one) where Berks grabbed 8-10" in 4-5 hours. Just extend the duration on this one.

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/weather/2024/02/lehigh-valley-weather-heavy-band-of-snow-dumps-foot-or-more-from-macungie-to-hellertown.html#:~:text=Lehigh Valley weather%3A Heavy band,more from Macungie to Hellertown&text=Snow falls in the Lehigh,Valley on Feb. 17%2C 2024.

[The Iceman]

10th percentile eps, this should calm some nerves 

 

[coastal front]

Just ordered a rain gauge from Amazon. Should be here before start time


.

[Hurricane Agnes]

18 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Just ordered a rain gauge from Amazon. Should be here before start time


.

The small tube in my Stratus got a crack at some point so need to replace that.  

And for completeness - the EC 18zs...

 

[ChescoWx]

40 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

10th percentile eps, this should calm some nerves 

 

That is a great stat there!! thanks!!

[Duca892]

Man I be holding my breath during 0z GFS. Telling you nothing will shock me when the new data is taken in

[The Iceman]

Time to brew some coffee and smoke a joint before the 00z suite rolls in, I suggest others do the same 

[Mikeymac5306]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Time to brew some coffee and smoke a joint before the 00z suite rolls in, I suggest others do the same 

Eh. 5:30 comes early. I'll catch you on the 6z runs. 

[The Iceman]

NAM at 84 looks great, too bad it’s the NAM at 84. Several positive changes. Stronger high pressure for one.

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

NAM at 84 looks great, too bad it’s the NAM at 84. Several positive changes. Stronger high pressure for one.

Would be an ultra long duration event with how expansive the overrunning stuff is. I do think that eventually we’d mix if extrapolated but not before a really crazy thump of snow.

[Albedoman]

this 12z map is for every snow weenie DREAM out in the forum, especially for LV  the bullseye. To get almost 1.5 times your annual snowfall by Ground Hogs day is actually playing into the movie of Ground Hogs Day, rerun after rerun The nice thing, it has POTENTIAL -----  LMAO

[Albedoman]

5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Would be an ultra long duration event with how expansive the overrunning stuff is. I do think that eventually we’d mix if extrapolated but not before a really crazy thump of snow.

The HP in Quebec over 1035 is great sign that it will win out if it is maintained.  Sleet may mix at times during the heavier snow bands, especially in the potential instability. I cannot wait to see the soundings for the potential of thundersnow with 3-4+ in hr snowfall rates in the mesos. That makes this a classic great snow storm and is the icing on the cake IMHO.

[beer]

3 hours ago, CoolHandMike said:

Welcome, neighbor!

i will say also,,, welcome aboard neighbor !

enjoy the storm but don't miss the train

[beer]

55 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Eh. 5:30 comes early. I'll catch you on the 6z runs. 

haha yeah if i had some

[beer]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Time to brew some coffee and smoke a joint before the 00z suite rolls in, I suggest others do the same 

haha 

[The Iceman]

8 minutes ago, beer said:

haha yeah if i had some

A beer will do brother. 
 

to keep this weather related, icon is a massive hit. Probably a little mixing but still a foot + for almost everyone.