Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/23 - 1/31

[snowman19]

[Stormlover74]

Womp womp

[SnoSki14]

I'd recommend taking your eyes off the models for a few days. Things won't really come into focus until Thursday at minimum. 

And avoid the hype posts on social media... they're going to be relentless 

[TriPol]

I do not think this weekend will give several inches of snow. It will be extremely cold, yes. I think we will get some snow, another nickel and dime event. But then... into next week... that's our shot. 

Should I start a thread on the threat 12 days away? (ducks)

[donsutherland1]

At this stage, models don't handle tracks and synoptic details very skillfully. Thus, there remains latitude for either a suppressed solution or even a big hit into southern New England. The odds somewhat favor the former, but that doesn't mean that the New York City area can't see a moderate or significant snowfall while parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic have a major snowfall.

The 18z GFS came northward. It showed > 6" at Raleigh.  Since 1890, there were 44 storms that brought 6" or more snow to Raleigh. While 24 (55%) had no measurable snow in New York City, 12 (27%) had 4" or more and 8 (18%) had 6" or more. The most recent storm to bring 6" or more snow to both Raleigh and New York City was the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 2010. Interestingly, almost 20% of individual EPS members showed 6" or more now, which would be in line with the historic probabilities associated with significant snowfalls in Raleigh.

Of course, as noted in the first paragraph, nothing is cast in stone. Historically, if the teleconnection forecast is reasonably accurate, the heaviest snows could favor Washington-Baltimore-Richmond, but it's still possible to get significant snows into New York City. By Thursday, the guidance will be handling the synoptic details with skill. By that time, we should have a much better idea of what to expect.

For now, aside from the possibility of a snowstorm, the details cannot be pinned down with much accuracy. At least there's something on the proverbial radar. 

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I do not think this weekend will give several inches of snow. It will be extremely cold, yes. I think we will get some snow, another nickel and dime event. But then... into next week... that's our shot. 

Should I start a thread on the threat 12 days away? (ducks)

why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.

Alright. I'll do that. Hope I'm not pissing off any mods.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Alright. I'll do that. Hope I'm not pissing off any mods.

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

Four score and seven threads ago, oh wait that's the Gettysburg address. 

[Rjay]

No

[SACRUS]

 

The 18Z Euro was a bit south but still had snow into the region (north of the GFS).  It only is out to 144 at 18z with likely a bit more at H150/H156.