Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, eduggs said: The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that? Looks more like drizzle then steady rain. I could buy that but I think ZR probably more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that? I’m sure you do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that? No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RAP mixing by 3PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas. We only have patches here, I'm near the Throgs Neck bridge and all throughout the town it's the same deal and Bayside as well, I was out and about most of the day. Where in Whitestone are you that you have almost full coverage? Not that I doubt you but it's pretty bare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. Agreed. Our winds are ENE and sourced from Connecticut. Cold enough and sound is cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas. Yep seems to be a LIE dividing zone as happens so many times. Most areas here are covered in at least some snow. I was in Long Beach on Thursday and nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Anyone going on a Jebwalk early tomorrow AM before any change over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that? It's possible. Very often in storms like this models underforecast the low level cold initially, but later in the forecast period the opposite is actually true. I've seen the city be stuck in the 20s all day in SWFE events despite models having it higher, then jump to the 40s or even higher towards the tail end when the dry slot approaches and/or the primary cutting north and west of us. With that said, the wind direction here argues against that. Maybe if coastal moves so far north that it actually bisects LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: RAP mixing by 3PM would be another double digit for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 23 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Pivotal don’t let any maps that show sleet impact snow accumulation I believe Yes. That's correct. From Pivotal Weather: ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. I think a flip to plain rain on the NJ coast at least from Toms River area southward almost a given at this point but should see a good thump before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro and Euro AI have a big thump. Around a foot for NYC. Euro AI has been having IMO a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: would be another double digit for metro area It seems models have increased totals in southern Ohio and southern PA in the last few cycles which is interesting as they are closer to the storm and maybe a sign of a weaker primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 With the 18Z models now out and generally (Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR) a bit snowier/less sleety than at 6Z and 12Z gnerally showing 8-12" before any sleet at 10:1 (which would be 10-15" at 13:1 ratios) I feel more confidence in an 8-12" snowfall for 95 from Philly to NYC and all of CNJ/EPA N of 276/195 and S of 78 (and more N of there). The two model exceptions were the NAM/GFS, which showed 5-6" (at 10:1) for CNJ (6-8" at 13:1 ratios) and then a lot of sleet (2"). I'll definitely take the Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR over NAM/GFS every day of the week (with the GFS the worst, going from most snowy to least snowy over the last 24 hours). We'll see soon I guess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I think a flip to plain rain on the NJ coast at least from Toms River area southward almost a given at this point but should see a good thump before that. Yep, they still get the thump to start maybe 4-6”, but the easterly fetch eventually gets temps over 32 especially near/east of the Garden State Parkway. Interior S NJ might have an icing event since I think this surface cold will be hard to dislodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 All I know is that radar looks HEALTHY!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Snow it s just about to WPA and WV and that usually equates to a 8 hour journey here (more or less 3-4 AM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, SACRUS said: RAP mixing by 3PM Once again, this is confined to areas well South of where most people here live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I don’t know if anyone saw Bernie’s latest video, but he’s very skeptical about the warm air overtaking the cold air and the sleet, making it into New York City https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1MnGnPprrYjxO 16 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 30 minutes ago, nycsnow said: NAM literally on its own and trended colder at 18z It’s gonna cave. If not at 00z then at 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 00Z guidance has commenced 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, NJwx85 said: Once again, this is confined to areas well South of where most people here live. It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 43 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Cleaned my yard and shed when it was 12 degrees. Had on 4 layers. I enjoyed it Frigid but calm is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol. And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 23 minutes ago, ag3 said: I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas. Bare Ground here, outside of a random snow patch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, nycsnow said: And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 00Z guidance has commenced 21z SREF This portends the NAM being north and warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol. LOL Very few people here actually live in NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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