Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Irish]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Gfs ticked ever so slightly south, not much but a tickle of a nickel smudge. Snow axis is a little weird though.

How does no one comment on this crazy Dr. Seuss line?!  Was this from Cat in the Winter Hat or Horton Hears pinging on his window?  

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Do u happen to have the 12z for comparison 

[Metasequoia]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

UKIE

 

Another Ukie run, another NYC snow hole. Having said that... it's a colder solution, which is welcome.

[snywx]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The nature of this storm is pretty clear that New England would get nailed a few days ago. It was pretty clear to everyone this wouldn’t end up a VA/Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Retreating high, retreating confluence, trough in the west and SE ridging=SWFE that favors I-90, Boston over to Albany and S NY. The initial high pressure/overrunning gives people like us down to DC a fighting chance but the best is along I-90. I-84 should do very well too. 

The 84 corridor is still sitting in an ideal location . 14-18” should be widespread north of Suffern. 

[EastonSN+]

The UKMET is the coldest and was a hold from 12z. Interesting.

[oceanctyguy]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie great and locked in for days 

Like the 12" monmouth/ocean counties but unlikely.

[EastonSN+]

Thundersleet reported in Texas!!!!

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Another Ukie run, another NYC snow hole. Having said that... it's a colder solution, which is welcome.

Yea what is with that snow hole over nyc?! Unreal that it hasn’t moved in pretty much of all the UKIE runs. Anyone have an explanation for what is causing that?

[NorthShoreWx]

36 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Don't forget orient is farthest north versus the city or the island but yeah that is wonky 

Orient Point is at the same latitude as Ossining or Bridgeport.

[psv88]

Ukie got colder and snowier again. Wow! 

[MJO812]

Precip is flying on the radar. I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm start earlier than modeled. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Precip is flying on the radar. I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm start earlier than modeled. 

Very dry air though. Dewpoint is -11 at JFK.

[Breene]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Precip is flying on the radar. I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm start earlier than modeled. 

I would be shocked if one of our snow storms DIDN'T start earlier than modeled.  Never understood why, but it seems the norm.

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Precip is flying on the radar. I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm start earlier than modeled. 

5-7am here. We are going to have virga for a bit, but it should come in like a wall once over coming the dry air.

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Precip is flying on the radar. I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm start earlier than modeled. 

Likewise for the brunt of it closing down likely between midnight and 3 am Monday 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

Very near unanimous and consistently similar QPF for the area for the last 3-4 days of 1.10  - 1.50 .

 

[Metasequoia]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Very near unanimous and consistently similar QPF for the area for the last 3-4 days of 1.10  - 1.50 .

 

The QPF has consistently been at least 1 inch for sure.  Also, seems like it has been increasing for days.

[jm1220]

Take the betting stuff to banter. I get it lol but keep this for storm discussion only. 

[MJO812]

Euro and Euro AI have a big thump. Around a foot for NYC. 

[NorthShoreWx]

There is going to be 1 - 1.5" of LE region wide, all of it frozen (except maybe the Jersey shore and that whole area of dixie).

This will be the most wintry week we have had in years, and it will look and feel it.  Should be pretty cool.  I'm waxing up my BC skis.

[Jt17]

Euro and Euro AI have a big thump. Around a foot for NYC. 

Euro and GFS going in opposite directions. Surprising nobody seems to riled up about it. I think 10+ is on the table still for NYC


.

[North and West]

How fast does everything overcome dry air?  Surface dews are still well below 0 over much of the storms path.

.

[EasternLI]

Yeah, didn't hate the 18z euro. More similar to it's 00z run then the 12z run was.

[Eduardo]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

There is going to be 1 - 1.5" of LE region wide, all of it frozen (except maybe the Jersey shore and that whole area of dixie).

This will be the most wintry week we have had in years, and it will look and feel it.  Should be pretty cool.  I'm waxing up my BC skis.

Retention snobs rejoice!  Going to feel like deep winter for a bit.  Can’t wait!1

[nycsnow]

Euro ai locked and loaded again

[North and West]

Retention snobs rejoice!  Going to feel like deep winter for a bit.  Can’t wait!1

It felt like it today!


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[jm1220]

Just now, Eduardo said:

Retention snobs rejoice!  Going to feel like deep winter for a bit.  Can’t wait!1

I’m hoping for the freezing drizzle at the end-maybe it happens in the dry slot when there’s little lift. It’ll encase everything into a glacier. 

[LVblizzard]

Hate to say it but it’s pretty useless to look at globals this close to the storm. Mesos and CAMs are more reliable at this range.

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Hate to say it but it’s pretty useless to look at globals this close to the storm. Mesos and CAMs are more reliable at this range.

RGEM coming in 10+ for nyc again