wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Wtf The wtf was for the post that's gone that showed half a page of gibberish lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in What about the hrdps? Its not terribly different than the nam but seems thumpier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in Yeah we are all pretty sure you said that about the NAM like 5 times yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie I still wouldn't trust it. Seems wonky since yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I still wouldn't trust it. Seems wonky since yesterday Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What about the hrdps? Its not terribly different than the nam but seems thumpier The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol Well yeah me too and the rap But not sure why the ukie has had these weird runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie Image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Image? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Well yeah me too and the rap But not sure why the ukie has had these weird runs I think its playing games in the mid levels as its transitioning to the offshore low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looked st the models this morning Going with 6 to 10 for CPK. Good news is the sleet will make the pack even stronger/last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Mt Holly finally coming around. Slashed totals big time which is the right call - just took a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 06z icon QPF SNow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Superintendent is a power position like the mayor; I had one who sent home flyers saying they don’t close for snow in places like Michigan so we don’t either. We’d be open when no one else was. Half the teachers would be out and I had to cover their classes and mine. So I decided to call out as well. Was glad to leave that district. It happens in my job too as I have another power position. Half the time we deice, we dont have to. It costs thousands if dollars, wastes 15-30 mins, and spreads a ton of toxic chemicals. I often bypass the process when its not needed by a simple wing check. but in this day and age, you better be confident im your decision. You better be right in your decision. You better be in control of your decision, and you better be in the air safely and quickly in your decision. When it involves 1000 school kids you can’t say any of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 06z UKM QPF Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 06z UKM QPF Snow: Uk has been showing a snow hole over nyc gor like 6 runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump? First guess is the zone valve, if you have multiple zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 And in actual weather there she blows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight You were right on this one. Starting to think closer to 6 before the flip but will range 6 to 10 in case the initial thump is impressive. Is that what your thoughts are? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Uk has been showing a snow hole over nyc gor like 6 runs lol British embassy asked the Met office to go gentle on the city - there has been a tendency on UK and GGEM but it doesnt have much other support QPF has been amazingly consistent in the >1.00 inch range (LE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Seems like we are narrowing in on around 8-10 inches for CPK. I'd be happy with that, especially since it will have staying power for all of next week which is highly unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Mt Holly finally coming around. Slashed totals big time which is the right call - just took a while. WSW is showing 7-13 for me. That’s still very aggressive, but much more reasonable than what they had yesterday. I’ll be very happy if we manage 7 or 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 degrees here Expecting 6-12 here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump? Check the pump if it’s cold while the heat is running it’s toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Positive possibilities Front end overrunning over performs (>0.6) of the total 1.0 - 1.4 QPF at 12:1 or 15:1 ratios and the mix / sleet is light precip. That first 6 - 8 hours is key to the front end WAA snows. Snowfall from 0.65" Liquid (LE) Snow Ratio Snowfall 12:1 7.8 inches 15:1 9.8 inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: You were right on this one. Starting to think closer to 6 before the flip but will range 6 to 10 in case the initial thump is impressive. Is that what your thoughts are? The initial front end thump is definitely going to be impressive. That’s locked in, I think the only remaining question is, when does the changeover to sleet with the warm nose then dry slot happen? As a sweeping generality, I’d say 6-10 in the NYC metro area (including the immediate north and west suburbs) before the changeover/dry slot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On the edge of the sleet line here but I think it gets here eventually. 10-12 before that however at least taking a blend of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Check the pump if it’s cold while the heat is running it’s toast Pump is hot. My boiler guy should be here within a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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