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Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26


TriPol
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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. 

Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO

When you say here, are you speaking for the entire forum?

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We ride the lightning here in these types of setups - it's exciting - but folks have to stop see-sawing with each individual model and buying it - I mean we're talking like overreactions of about a 10-15m swing of a mix line and a faux snowmap showing 1-2 inch perturbations here.

 

 

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Just now, CentralNJSnowman said:

GFS still better than other models.  Particularly in southern half of NJ where it drops a lot of precip.

This is a far north the mix line gets on 18Z GFS only a few hours then moves east - stronger coastal lp

prateptype_cat-imp.us_ne.png

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Overall it’s actually a tick colder by 06z. It also has the coastal about 100 miles further West at 06z Monday and it’s still snowing back to Ohio.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh60_trend.gif

The continued big improvement was how the western side gets compressed and shoved east before the primary can gain too much latitude. 

 

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I've seen nothing today that makes me want to change my ongoing forecast for my immediate area and south and east along I-78/I80.

Holding steady with 6-10" for now.  Fully planning on a mix with sleet here and probably a bit sooner than later.  Could be wrong but we'll know for sure in about 48 hours.

If the NAM is still beating this 18Z drum at 00Z this evening and 12Z tomorrow there is going to be some cliff jumping.  Not buying it hook, line and sinker just yet but keeping the option open.

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