CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, wilton_wx said: I think that 8-12" line gets pulled south, theres very little consensus right now that the sleet makes it that far north into CT. Coastal areas, yes. But that 300' elevation change from Coastline to more inland will be very telling Elevation has no bearing on mid level temps and changes to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If you cycle the past 6 runs or so of the NAM you can see the phase getting slightly sloppier over time. The northern stream is little by little shearing off the top of the trof instead of phasing back into the southern stream. It's still a good phase of energy and moisture, just not as extreme as a day or two ago. That trend is really helping keep the primary SLP and the bulk of precipitation south of the NY-Canada border... I'm really hoping it helps just enough to stave off too much sleet and reduce the severity of the dryslot. On the flip side, it might lead to a reduction in total QPF. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: ⚠️ The forecast for Sunday's winter storm has been updated. Snowfall amounts have trended down slightly, but ice amounts have trended up slightly for some areas. Regardless of exactly The forecast for Sunday's winter storm has been updated. Snowfall amounts have trended down slightly, but ice amounts have trended up slightly for some areas. Regardless of exactly how much snow falls, our message is the same: Significant impacts are expected for our entire area! Snow will begin after midnight late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The peak of the storm and heaviest precip will occur during the daytime Sunday into Sunday evening, then wind down into Monday morning. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for our entire region. Very cold conditions expected through next weekend. Updated briefing here: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Nice that a good part of this event will be taking place during the day ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Why does the NAM take so long? Is it running on a windows 95 computer? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Nam Kuchera is gonna blow minds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Why does the NAM take so long? Is it running on a windows 95 computer? A dozen monkeys using abacus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Why does the NAM take so long? Is it running on a windows 95 computer? Yes. And because Microsoft no longer supports Windows 95, each frame needs to be scanned independently for viruses. And then it has to be double authenticated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looks like a quicker flip to sleet Ala 6z but we'll see if it slows again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The southern stream wave in TX sharpened up a bit again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, eduggs said: The southern stream wave in TX sharpened up a bit again this run yes but coastal reflection is a bit more pronounced and a bit further south - I think it'll be a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, danstorm said: yes but coastal reflection is a bit more pronounced and a bit further south - I think it'll be a wash Me too. Was still hoping for clear improvement and more breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Much lower amounts by 21z on this NAM run. It doesn't have as strong of a thump before the change to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Yikes, not what we wanted to see, but it's the NAM. It giveth and taketh away every cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, winterwx21 said: Much lower amounts by 21z on this NAM run. It doesn't have as strong of a thump before the change to sleet. Drier and warmer. 6 runs to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The coastal never gets cranking and we are flooded with warm air. Is it right? Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CentralNJSnowman said: Looks like timing of progression of the sleet line in NJ is nearly identical on 18z NAM and 12z NAM Its about 30 miles further north which is a huge difference since that encompasses most of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Its about 30 miles further north which is a huge difference since that encompasses most of the metro Yeah, I actually deleted my post. It WAS progressing identically through about 18z Sunday or slightly later, and then was substantially worse after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Jesus NAM! God awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Its about 30 miles further north which is a huge difference since that encompasses most of the metro If the primary hangs on longer and we have a sharper western trough, more warm air gets pulled north and we flip sooner/more of us flip. Also if it’s drier with that setup we’re screwed two ways since a broken/lighter precip shield will allow warm air to take over sooner. It’s that simple. Hopefully it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: If the primary hangs on longer and we have a sharper western trough, more warm air gets pulled north and we flip sooner/more of us flip. Also if it’s drier with that setup we’re screwed two ways since a broken/lighter precip shield will allow warm air to take over sooner. It’s that simple. Hopefully it’s wrong. Yeah we need that thump to perform if we're getting anywhere near double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 18z NAM total qpf storm Total snow/ sleet / frz rain (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Jesus NAM! God awful... Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it. Flips us to plain rain! Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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