Volcanic Winter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, BoulderWX said: The NWS actually added an inch to my WSW - 12-17. Not sure what they’re looking at. Same down here actually. I’m included in the 12-17, only down all the way by AC does it drop to 8-15. Very bullish, wondering if it’s just because it’s a watch - I’d expect the warnings to be more finely tuned. I think 6-8 with a chance at 10 in a best case scenario would be more realistic for my location. Not overly pressed tbh, beast of a storm and I’m ready to roll the dice no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, NEG NAO said: Too busy worrying about the sleet Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area). Its going to be ugly post mortem for them and their NBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, winterwarlock said: Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agreed - makes one nauseous reading some of these Doom and Gloom - Debbie Downer posts about a little sleet mixing in cutting the double digit accumulation down a couple inches...I am not going to get involved in that nonsense . THINK POSITIVE ! With respect, and this is a gripe I have overall with AWX - this isn’t a safe space for snow positivity. It’s supposed to be a science discussion forum, debate typically includes various view points and opinions. People also have different preferences in general, everyone isn’t going to neatly line up in a way that reinforces your personal optimism. And it’s fine if people express frustration, I don’t claim agency over the feelings or thoughts of others and I’d expect that same latitude in return. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, NEG NAO said: ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest Nobody's getting a foot south of 78 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: With respect, and this is a gripe I have overall with AWX - this isn’t a safe space for snow positivity. It’s supposed to be a science discussion forum, debate typically includes various view points and opinions. People also have different preferences in general, everyone isn’t going to nearly line up in a way that reinforces your personal optimism. And it’s fine if people express frustration, I don’t claim agency over the feelings or thoughts of others and I’d expect that same latitude in return. I am glad you said it with respect - thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nobody's getting a foot south of 78 noted and recorded - anybody else have snowfall totals ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, NEG NAO said: noted and recorded - anybody else have snowfall totals ? I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest Define location..im forecasting for central jersey south of 78 newark to nyc and north of trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20” 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Nibor said: Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20” Yeah they're getting smoked up there where no mixing occurs and high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, Nibor said: Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20” I believe the NAM has mixing up to Poughkeepsie. I will let you know since I am North of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, mob1 said: I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals. Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just got back from food shopping. What a shitshow it was. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, Nibor said: Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20” I am in Northern Westchester, north of 287 by 10 miles. I think my area should be good for 10-15” plus a little sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 06Z QPF remained the most consistent i have seen in the 1.2 - 1.5 range on all the major data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, MJO812 said: Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible. Agree as there’s a ton of moisture incoming and it’s possible we get a big enough thump where the changeover won’t matter as much. Anyway, regardless of any sleet it seems like a floor is around 6-8 at this time for the city and I’d honestly be ok with that considering the awful winters we’ve had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just got back from food shopping. What a shitshow it was. Better off waiting til Sunday morning at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 hours ago, RockawayRowdies said: Ha! I'm in Rockaway borough.. I have no idea whether to expect 18 inches or 8. It's facinating. 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point . I said same thing yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 closing in on the 1.25 - 1.50 and 1.75 approaching now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I believe the NAM has mixing up to Poughkeepsie. I will let you know since I am North of 84. I won’t discount it but if sleet gets that far north I don’t think it’ll be for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point . hi neighbor - I think we deal with a decent amount of mixing but still think we can see 8-10 before the change over; a couple extra hours of snow vs sleet will determine if we hit double digits IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 As exciting as this storm is, I really hope next weekends storm pans out, monster KU type potential with that setup. One at a time but hard to not be excited for what could be to come! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It's going to be interesting if we get into mixing with forecast high temps for Sunday only in the upper teens to maybe 20 out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Better off waiting til Sunday morning at this point If you want to experience less of a selection and empty shelves in some stores - some people think they have to stock up for weeks - actually if its only going to be a foot or so and most of it falls Sunday before late evening - there should be little trouble on the roads Monday - the equipment they use nowadays is much more efficient then years ago and easier to remove when there won't be much traffic on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 hours ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: This is the best one I've seen so far. lol Daily Mail is the NYP on steroids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me. Sleet also melts more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per volume ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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