winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 why did they have to go 18 inches though...why not 8-14 that seems more appropriate..IMO its because they have fallen in love with the nbm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Basically unchanged. Maybe a tick drier Can see the dry slot in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It is all going to be about how close that secondary low is tucked in to the coast off of NJ. Even a small move east or west will affect if/when we change over. Right now they all, except for the GFS, want to tuck that secondary low fairly close to NJ before moving away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think. Sleet isn’t caused by the surface reflection, it’s caused by the mid-levels. If you want less sleet, you either want less well defined mid-level features to the west so the warm tongue isn’t as strong (It would also result in less precip due to less WAA, but still) or you want the entire thing to shift southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think. UKie is currently showing a weaker secondary that doesn't really get going until it is south of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam. Where do you see 2 feet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam. Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Icon looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18Z Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1) NAM (84H): 1.2 / (9.7) RGEM: 1.1 / (7.0) GFS: 1.4 / (13.5) GEFS: 1.5 / (12.8) Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / (12.1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam. i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We probably won't know until Saturday or Sunday since a hour or two quicker transfer means a huge difference in ptype. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Yeah that’s the best call. More in the very northern parts of NJ and NYS is looking at 12-16 There are no weather models or forecasts that show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Where do you see 2 feet? Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, TriPol said: There are no weather models or forecasts that show this. That shows what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Would the 18Z Icon be snow to sleet for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. They start high and then adjust lower central Jersey will be in 4-8 range by tomorrow south Jersey will be 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there 12z GFS was snowier but let's see if it holds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Just now, BoulderWX said: That shows what? North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said: They start high and then adjust lower Yes I know I just think it’s wildly high based on guidance. I have no doubt the they’ll adjust downward by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there. If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: There are no weather models or forecasts that show this. odd post...most models are showing 6-12 not 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there. I wouldn't hug an unreliable model, we know this is a possible outcome but no other model is showing that sharp of a cutoff and widespread 20+ amounts north of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there. Well they average like 5x we do so yeah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TriPol said: North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow. That’s not even close to accurate so no need to debate with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. What if they have a secret extremely accurate AI model that we don't know about ? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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