SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 upper lvls on the nam show less ridging along the coast should hopefully lead to a faster transfer to the coastal low and prevent some of that mid-level warming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: We've already had three events in many parts of our forum of 6 inches this winter alone. Unless you just moved here, I really don't think many people think that even with the last four milder winters. should i believe you or my lyin eyes at the supermarket...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nam is colder and precip comes in way earlier than the other models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nam looks great. A hair weaker but colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 And it's much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Joe4alb said: upper lvls on the nam show less ridging along the coast should hopefully lead to a faster transfer to the coastal low and prevent some of that mid-level warming Yup. The further south and east the CA wave gets before it gets scooped up the better In this run, more of it escapes the influence of the trough diving behind it, so it doesn’t turn the corner as much, which results in demonstrably lower heights in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 hours ago, Prue11 said: Atleast 1/3 of the United States is under a winter storm watch/warning That was me that said most of the forecasted long duration events don't come to fruition. Hoping that I'm wrong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still snow at 7:00 pm Sunday on the NAM, mixing at 10:00 pm but precip looks mostly done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: And it's much drier Looks mostly the same .75 to 1" by 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Pivotal Weather - NAM: Total Snowfall (Kuchera) - Northeast US Still snowing north of NYC and into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SACRUS said: 1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1) over an inch of liquid 95% snow for NYC, if anything seems like it upped precip a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 To my untrained eye the models are having a difficult time determining the location of the primary before the transfer; the ensemble means are clearly south compared to the ops. The next step is determining how much energy might phase as the GFS is chasing lp centers off the coast; the Euro less so. As we get closer I am looking for the transfer to be closer to the VA/NC border, with the primary dying off in southern or central W.V. To me, that will signal a solid storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, wthrmn654 said: So it only snow from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol It start Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1) Kuchera is near a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, wthrmn654 said: So it only snowing from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol I was tracking if/when the changeover happens. It definitely will snow a lot earlier in the day on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Pivotal Weather - NAM: Total Snowfall (Kuchera) - Northeast US Still snowing north of NYC and into SNE Yeah still snowing up in these parts. Dry slot makes it up to NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 nam is 6-12..thats a decent forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Franklin0529 said: It start Sunday morning How he worded it was confusing.... made it sound like started at 7 pm ended at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: So it only snow from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol It starts like before 7am on Sunday according to the NAM and does stop until 1am Monday. I definitely could see future runs juicing up the QPF a bit. Some localized areas could see 16-20" just not sure where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Way drier than 12z brutal dry slot up to nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Kuchera is near a foot Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Way drier than 12z brutal dry slot up to nyc way drier is an exaggeration... it shows 1.1QPF for the city and mostly the whole forum is at 1" QPF or higher and its colder and a bit further south which would guarantee more snow. So its a better run in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1AM monday I don't really see a dry slot. The coastal hopefully takes over and flings some moisture back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mount Holly giving some more details on there maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18x RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 nam is 6-12..thats a decent forecastNo it's not warlock. It's 10-15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Nam coming in flatter/colder. Keeping up with the theme of the day so far Yup, cooled a touch across our area. Pretty solid CNJ north with sleet and dryslot at the end. Very curious if there would be any snow on Monday from that trof back to the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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