David-LI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 00z GFS Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jt17 said: The output looks just like 12z GFS. 18z was doing 18z things . Good catch, I didn't realize how juiced 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Also looks like the wind picks up towards the end of the precip as the low deepens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TriPol said: 126 still snowing Tuesday morning. I dont see that on the run. Wraps up Monday afternoon / evening. 24hr event nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psv88 said: I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure slow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in the mind. Snow is snow Go down south. Plenty of that this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 00z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I dont see that on the run. Wraps up Monday afternoon / evening. 24hr event nonetheless.Accumulations stop around 120 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC still amped, heavy snow to lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SACRUS said: 00z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF Is that mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 32 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 00Z QPF - NYC ICON: 1.5 GFS: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Accumulations stop around 120 . inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SACRUS said: GGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Rjay said: If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. Yup did a good job here last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 00Z GGEM Total QPF - storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs. No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, psv88 said: No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice. It's more sleet than snow or at least close to 50/50 and the east end does look like it flips to rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind. Nothing like a sleet storm with 45 mph winds. LFGGGG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Long duration events never usually work out for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, psv88 said: No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice. Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Snowguy66 said: Long duration events never usually work out for us This is absolutely false and useless comment. We’ve had many and they’ve been great. At least on the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind. almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. GGEM (CMC) Common biases Over-deepens coastal lows Track often too far north or west QPF inflation → snow maps run hot Can be noisy run-to-run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. I feel like the CMC has been doing better than the GFS this year. It's purely anecdotal but I don't trust the GFS at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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