January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[baltosquid]

Crazy WAA to start, and then it's gonna mix it looks like.

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax

Map please. Pivotal is broken.  Lol

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax

I think @SnowenOutThereis unfortunately losing his mind tonight. 

[LP08]

Damn…it’s all the way in west Va lol

 

edit.  Pittsburgh

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Map please. Pivotal is broken.  Lol

It's like 12-18", and this ain't even Kuchie..

[jewell2188]

This is far from over. I feel many forget that we still have couple days till a final solution. No reason to think a failure still isn't on the table given the last few years. Can’t go against the trend unless proven otherwise. 

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The cliff jumping in here over the CMC is ridiculous. Icon and GFS already smoked us. The King will probably do the same (and yeah, I will always bend the knee for the Euro)

 

Not cliff jumping, just stating facts. You start pushing lows into WV then 80% or more of this forum is waving bye-bye to large snow numbers and hello to 2,3,4 inches of front end then 1-2 inches of sleet or quarter inch of freezing rain, then MAYBE a switch back to snow and another 3-5 inches. Again, only a couple models showing this but a bad, bad trend is starting to rear up. 

[NorthArlington101]

Damn…it’s all the way in west Va lol
 
edit.  Pittsburgh

Yeah, I don’t care too much what it showed verbatim. Trend tonight is dangerous and needs to stop. Like ASAP.

[Chris78]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Not cliff jumping, just stating facts. You start pushing lows into WV then 80% or more of this forum is waving bye-bye to large snow numbers and hello to 2,3,4 inches of front end then 1-2 inches of sleet or quarter inch of freezing rain, then MAYBE a stitch back to snow and another 3-5 inches. Again, only a couple models showing this but a bad, bad trend is starting to rear up. 

The north trend started way to early.

 

[Disc]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Not cliff jumping, just stating facts. You start pushing lows into WV then 80% or more of this forum is waving bye-bye to large snow numbers and hello to 2,3,4 inches of front end then 1-2 inches of sleet or quarter inch of freezing rain, then MAYBE a stitch back to snow and another 3-5 inches. Again, only a couple models showing this but a bad, bad trend is starting to rear up. 

Once they start cutting, it's hard to bring 'em back is my rule of thumb. Trend so far hasn't been great tonight.

[LeesburgWx]

I’ll be returning my snow boots I just bought and buying an umbrella if this doesn’t stop. It’s comical how quickly these things can change. Hopefully, euro holds steady and gives us more breathing room.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don’t care too much what it showed verbatim. Trend tonight is dangerous and needs to stop. Like ASAP.

Bruh I swear if this thing trends all rhe way to being pure sleet and ice...

You gotta wonder if the models got new data this evening because these aren't just ticks north but a big jump.

[LP08]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don’t care too much what it showed verbatim. Trend tonight is dangerous and needs to stop. Like ASAP.

I’ve lived here way too long.  Even through the clown maps say over a foot.  That is a front ender of 3-6 to sleet.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I think @SnowenOutThereis unfortunately losing his mind tonight. 

I think I've just been saying what the models have been showing. We still have 4 days to go and the Ukmet gets quite close to a really concerning solution where we get into a dryslot if the models shift as far north as they have today over the next four days. This isn't a chance I want to be taking. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I’ve lived here way too long.  Even through the clown maps say over a foot.  That is a front ender of 3-6 to sleet.

It actually says 15-18”. 

[TSSN+]

Remember how cold it was modeled not long ago? Ukmet gets above 32 in dc Sunday when the forecast is like 19. 

[Nomz]

Fun fact. Literally only two maps showed any real mixing in our sub. And they were the UK and the fuckin canadian.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Nomz said:

Fun fact. Literally only two maps showed any real mixing in our sub. And they were the UK and the fuckin canadian.

Be careful the euro was heading that way at 18z 

[WxMan1]

Like the CMC, Ukie begins to change to sleet around midday over DCA, but not much precip after that. Almost like ending as a period of sleet that lightens up quickly by mid/late afternoon. Still a nice front end THUMP before that. Considering how intense that front end WAA snow is...I'll take it. Notice the low in WV by 18Z Sun. Yeah, not the kind of Miller B you want, but again, this would be one hell of an acceptable front-end thump. 

[Jebman]

50 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Verbatim, the radar panels you'd get out of that at game time would become profile pics all over this forum.

Epic sig material

[ravensrule]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I think I've just been saying what the models have been showing. We still have 4 days to go and the Ukmet gets quite close to a really concerning solution where we get into a dryslot if the models shift as far north as they have today over the next four days. This isn't a chance I want to be taking. 

I definitely agree with you, but I don’t understand why you assume it’s going to keep happening. It is slightly concerning because it’s the Ukie which i believe has the second best verification numbers, let’s see what the Euro says in 45 minutes. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’ve lived here way too long.  Even through the clown maps say over a foot.  That is a front ender of 3-6 to sleet.

I'll wait for the next two runs of models to see if this was a 'blip', but yeah. 

[LeesburgWx]

We are quickly turning to putting our eggs back into the GFS basket though

[MDsnowPRO]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Fun fact. Literally only two maps showed any real mixing in our sub. And they were the UK and the fuckin canadian.

The reactive emotional roller coaster some weenies ride is completely nauseating 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said:

The reactive emotional roller coaster some weenies ride is completely nauseating 

Unfortunately, routine here.  Gonna wait for the Euro to see if this jump/trend is real

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I definitely agree with you, but I don’t understand why you assume it’s going to keep happening. It is slightly concerning because it’s the Ukie which i believe has the second best verification numbers, let’s see what the Euro says in 45 minutes. 

It was a really big jump. I mean...we legit don't know if that's the northern extent or not--it's just Tuesday night.

[Weather Will]

Happy to see an intense moisture bomb. Tired of the dusting or 1 inch every 6 hours with marginal temps.  Bring an intense storm, and if you get some wintry mix enjoy it.

[AGardiner87]

Y’all cliff jump more than the SE thread it’s ridiculous!

[jewell2188]

3 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

The reactive emotional roller coaster some weenies ride is completely nauseating 

I mean you can’t go against the theme and trend the past 10 years

[weathervswife]

Just a reminder.  On Pivotal, the UKIE snow map counts ice as snow.