January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Canadian:  need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains.

Very Miller B-ish

[Disc]

4 hours ago, Disc said:

I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. 

 

 

Like I mentioned earlier, before everyone gets carried away cheering on the amped stuff, this is what you get. Canadian did something similar hinting at low pressure sliding up into West Virginia. This is enough to draw in warmer air aloft. Ok yes, gotta sniff the mix to get the good stuff, but do you wanna be sniffing the mix 3 days out?

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Canadian:  need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains.

This was the key. Idc what kind of cold air intrusion you have, a low onto Charleston, WV is gonna cause mix issues. If we get the primary closer to Knoxville area, that probably perfect. I would even work with Eastern KY. Just can’t get it north of there or there will be mixing. 

[Ji]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

So much for the high is too strong crowd, this won’t trend north people. 

la nina/Se ridge lol

[Ji]

I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

la nina/Se ridge lol

You just keep listening to that TWC jazz.

[SnowenOutThere]

I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first

Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...

[Ji]

the worst part about the Canada is it dosent go back to snow after sleet. That would be unusual

[baltosquid]

At this stage I still feel like it's more likely some NS trash is introduced (or a helpful piece is lost) that prevents a CMC phase, than we actually get the CMC phase. This has not been a NS that plays nice and phases eagerly this winter.

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! 

Lowkenuinely its over for you bro. You finna gon get beat up dude!

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...

Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting

[wxdude64]

13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

CMC is a coastal runner. We do need the north trends to slow down now. We got what we needed today. But we can’t have it keep going. Tomorrow is only Wednesday 

This. We've had 125% of the needed 'north trend' happen in 2 runs. It is only Tuesday as you said, this happening over the next 3 days would have been a lot better. MAYBE a couple models drift back south, but usually once a trend starts it doesn't stop. I know it's only the GFS and CMC, but heck at this rate we may be talking severe weather by Saturday. 

[Warm Nose]

Relax. We were never getting 16”

[MDScienceTeacher]

12 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

What about DC metro mixing over to sleet then back to snow? Still think this storm will be similar to PDII in that way.

Sleet is possible in any of these big storms.  The warm layer can find its way in.. but the cold air is pretty well entrenched with this system and and I am not quite seeing much of the negative tilt in upper levels that would lead to warm air intrusion.  This is also the same reason why we are not seeing the HECs level QPF totals like we saw in 03.  Obviously this can change.. but this looks more like snow than anything else for the DC metro region.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting

4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess?

[Fozz]

I’ve learned a long time ago that if you want all snow, you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north.

If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007.

But even a great storm can have some mixing. Like PDII or Feb 10, 2010.

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Relax. We were never getting 16”

Name checks out

[Ji]

High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ji said:

High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ?

I mean do you see the low pressures out west? The reason the CMC run irks me so much is that it checks out. If we get that strong of a NS with that strong of a SW and the timing right we will mix. 

[anotherman]

High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ?

It’s the CMC.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS

[SnowenOutThere]

Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. 

[Ji]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS

thats a decent tick right?

[IUsedToHateCold]

The cliff jumping in here over the CMC is ridiculous. Icon and GFS already smoked us. The King will probably do the same (and yeah, I will always bend the knee for the Euro)

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. 

It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. 

It is really loading up the precip shield vs 12z

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. 

It looks to be more amped than even the CMC 

[mitchnick]

Pivotal broken on Ukie all of a sudden

[bncho]

UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax