Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TSSN+ said: So much for the high is too strong crowd, this won’t trend north people. la nina/Se ridge lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ji said: la nina/Se ridge lol You just keep listening to that TWC jazz. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ji said: I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 the worst part about the Canada is it dosent go back to snow after sleet. That would be unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 At this stage I still feel like it's more likely some NS trash is introduced (or a helpful piece is lost) that prevents a CMC phase, than we actually get the CMC phase. This has not been a NS that plays nice and phases eagerly this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! Lowkenuinely its over for you bro. You finna gon get beat up dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: CMC is a coastal runner. We do need the north trends to slow down now. We got what we needed today. But we can’t have it keep going. Tomorrow is only Wednesday This. We've had 125% of the needed 'north trend' happen in 2 runs. It is only Tuesday as you said, this happening over the next 3 days would have been a lot better. MAYBE a couple models drift back south, but usually once a trend starts it doesn't stop. I know it's only the GFS and CMC, but heck at this rate we may be talking severe weather by Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Relax. We were never getting 16” 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: What about DC metro mixing over to sleet then back to snow? Still think this storm will be similar to PDII in that way. Sleet is possible in any of these big storms. The warm layer can find its way in.. but the cold air is pretty well entrenched with this system and and I am not quite seeing much of the negative tilt in upper levels that would lead to warm air intrusion. This is also the same reason why we are not seeing the HECs level QPF totals like we saw in 03. Obviously this can change.. but this looks more like snow than anything else for the DC metro region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting 4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I’ve learned a long time ago that if you want all snow, you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north. If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007. But even a great storm can have some mixing. Like PDII or Feb 10, 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Relax. We were never getting 16” Name checks out 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ji said: High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ? I mean do you see the low pressures out west? The reason the CMC run irks me so much is that it checks out. If we get that strong of a NS with that strong of a SW and the timing right we will mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ?It’s the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 0Z GEFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS thats a decent tick right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The cliff jumping in here over the CMC is ridiculous. Icon and GFS already smoked us. The King will probably do the same (and yeah, I will always bend the knee for the Euro) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. It is really loading up the precip shield vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. It looks to be more amped than even the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Pivotal broken on Ukie all of a sudden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Crazy WAA to start, and then it's gonna mix it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax Map please. Pivotal is broken. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax I think @SnowenOutThereis unfortunately losing his mind tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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