Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: FOLKS... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19 minutes ago, andyhb said: The PDII comparisons starting to flash into the picture. I’m not sold on the PDII comparison quite yet because the QPF progs aren't showing that level of saturation. During PDII, we saw persistent mesoscale banding with radar returns so intense they would have prompted flash flood warnings in the summer. That setup featured a textbook 'tropical tap' where a deep moisture plume from both the Gulf AND the Atlantic converged. The Water Transport was so off the charts because you had a secondary low off the Carolinas acting as a pump, feeding a SSE-to-NNW moisture flux directly into the cold dome. Lift was maximized because that 1040mb Arctic High was so anchored, creating a steep vertical 'ramp' for the moisture to climb. We ended up with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of liquid equivalent (QPF) across the board. Sure we have the 1040 high this time.. but as of now, this current setup looks more like a standard Gulf-dominant system—it lacks that intense Atlantic inflow and the same degree of frontogenesis we saw in '03. It has potential, but the 'firehose' isn't there yet. Could change.. hopefully it does. If I remember, PD2 was a 1 foot deal on the inital warnings.. only after it started training we started to see the 18-24 numbers show up in the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Gfs has a lot more snow from OK to KY than it did in prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 126 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS is an AMAZING run! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Speechless the GFS is dropping this on us now after today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, snowfan said: F Feels weird there’s not a low in the Great Lakes fooking up our thermals. This is money. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase. Agree and this is got a huge cold high pressure just about squatting over PA , I’m glad this low has moxie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Speechless the GFS is dropping this on us now after today what happened today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @stormtracker 4 20 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC is teeing up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 still snowing at hr 126 with over a foot OTG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 0Z GFS!!! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Feels weird there’s not a low in the Great Lakes fooking up our thermals. This is money. The magic of a 1037 high in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 126 Richmond starting to shed inches and angle of precip and heaviest axis is a little more ENE now in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I’m not sold on the PDII comparison quite yet because the QPF progs aren't showing that level of saturation. During PDII, we saw persistent mesoscale banding with radar returns so intense they would have prompted flash flood warnings in the summer. That setup featured a textbook 'tropical tap' where a deep moisture plume from both the Gulf AND the Atlantic converged. The Water Transport was so off the charts because you had a secondary low off the Carolinas acting as a pump, feeding a SSE-to-NNW moisture flux directly into the cold dome. Lift was maximized because that 1040mb Arctic High was so anchored, creating a steep vertical 'ramp' for the moisture to climb. We ended up with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of liquid equivalent (QPF) across the board. Sure we have the 1040 high this time.. but as of now, this current setup looks more like a standard Gulf-dominant system—it lacks that intense Atlantic inflow and the same degree of frontogenesis we saw in '03. It has potential, but the 'firehose' isn't there yet. Could change.. hopefully it does. If I remember, PD2 was a 1 foot deal on the inital warnings.. only after it started training we started to see the 18-24 numbers show up in the warnings. What about DC metro mixing over to sleet then back to snow? Still think this storm will be similar to PDII in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Richmond starting to shed inches and angle of precip and heaviest acid is a little more WNW now in VA Noticing this as well. Staring to like it out our way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This is the perfect progression for our big storms. Primary into TN or KY and a jump to the Carolinas border. I am good with where we are now. No further north. Even for me. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Cmc coming north too. Party is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC improving the phase for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: CMC is teeing up as well Might have a generational run depending on that NS vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC incredibly amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: @stormtracker Pretty much...almost dropped that, but I get nervous as hell until I can be for sure sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it. I'm pretty sure that won't be included till 12z tomorrow at the very earliest. I wouldn't take the recon into consideration till like wednesday night runs at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it. Huh? They also don’t want it to move north so think it’s wrong lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Well, with the north trends (more of a SW-NE oriented heavy snow axis, closer to climo), we know that means the MIX area gets close. This is a pretty picture now, but we're still 96+ hours away from the onset of the precip. LOVE the northern trends, yes, but for the metro area now would be a good time for the trends to STOP. I don't think they will though, lol. Oh, don't get me wrong, surface temps will stay in the 20s. But those 750-700 mb temps may flirt with 0C with a mix or period of sleet all the way up to Southern MD...maybe even Rte 50 for a little bit. Wouldn't surprise me. Still a hit, oh boy a big hit, but I don't think the northern trends are done either. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC is definitely quicker than GFS. Snow breaking out Saturday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 1043mb reinforcing HP over Quebec. I might shed a tear My feelings exactly. I am blasting every track that ever reminded me of snow, including Gen Z tracks. Everything from 1964 clear to 2026. All I have EVER wanted, is for this sub to get completely, utterly demolished by snow and cold. That happens, everything is all good for me. I'll be cheering you all on! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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