January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[snowfan]

F

 

[Weather Will]

123

[andyhb]

As someone living in OK, holy shit at that 00z GFS.

Also as someone watching the potential for the Mid Atlantic, holy shit at the 00z GFS.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FOLKS...

[SnowenOutThere]

Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits

[MDScienceTeacher]

19 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The PDII comparisons starting to flash into the picture.

I’m not sold on the PDII comparison quite yet because the QPF progs aren't showing that level of saturation. During PDII, we saw persistent mesoscale banding with radar returns so intense they would have prompted flash flood warnings in the summer.

That setup featured a textbook 'tropical tap' where a deep moisture plume from both the Gulf AND the Atlantic converged. The Water Transport was so off the charts because you had a secondary low off the Carolinas acting as a pump, feeding a SSE-to-NNW moisture flux directly into the cold dome.

Lift was maximized because that 1040mb Arctic High was so anchored, creating a steep vertical 'ramp' for the moisture to climb. We ended up with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of liquid equivalent (QPF) across the board.

Sure we have the 1040 high this time.. but as of now, this current setup looks more like a standard Gulf-dominant system—it lacks that intense Atlantic inflow and the same degree of frontogenesis we saw in '03. It has potential, but the 'firehose' isn't there yet.  Could change.. hopefully it does.  If I remember, PD2 was a 1 foot deal on the inital warnings.. only after it started training we started to see the 18-24 numbers show up in the warnings.

[Amped]

Gfs has a lot more snow from OK to KY than it did in prior runs.

[Weather Will]

126

[bncho]

GFS is an AMAZING run!

[LeesburgWx]

Speechless the GFS is dropping this on us now after today

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

F

 

Feels weird there’s not a low in the Great Lakes fooking up our thermals.  This is money.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase.

Agree and this is got  a huge cold high pressure just about squatting over PA , I’m glad this low has moxie 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Speechless the GFS is dropping this on us now after today

what happened today?

 

[bncho]

@stormtracker

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC is teeing up as well

[JakkelWx]

still snowing at hr 126 with over a foot OTG.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS!!!

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Feels weird there’s not a low in the Great Lakes fooking up our thermals.  This is money.

The magic of a 1037 high in Quebec.

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

126

Richmond starting to shed inches and angle of precip and heaviest axis is a little more ENE now in VA

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I’m not sold on the PDII comparison quite yet because the QPF progs aren't showing that level of saturation. During PDII, we saw persistent mesoscale banding with radar returns so intense they would have prompted flash flood warnings in the summer.

That setup featured a textbook 'tropical tap' where a deep moisture plume from both the Gulf AND the Atlantic converged. The Water Transport was so off the charts because you had a secondary low off the Carolinas acting as a pump, feeding a SSE-to-NNW moisture flux directly into the cold dome.

Lift was maximized because that 1040mb Arctic High was so anchored, creating a steep vertical 'ramp' for the moisture to climb. We ended up with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of liquid equivalent (QPF) across the board.

 

Sure we have the 1040 high this time.. but as of now, this current setup looks more like a standard Gulf-dominant system—it lacks that intense Atlantic inflow and the same degree of frontogenesis we saw in '03. It has potential, but the 'firehose' isn't there yet.  Could change.. hopefully it does.  If I remember, PD2 was a 1 foot deal on the inital warnings.. only after it started training we started to see the 18-24 numbers show up in the warnings.

What about DC metro mixing over to sleet then back to snow? Still think this storm will be similar to PDII in that way.

[bncho]

Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Richmond starting to shed inches and angle of precip and heaviest acid is a little more WNW now in VA

Noticing this as well. Staring to like it out our way! 

 

[clskinsfan]

This is the perfect progression for our big storms. Primary into TN or KY and a jump to the Carolinas border. I am good with where we are now. No further north. Even for me.

[Amped]

Cmc coming north too. Party is on.

[baltosquid]

CMC improving the phase for sure

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC is teeing up as well

Might have a generational run depending on that NS vort

[bncho]

CMC incredibly amped.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

@stormtracker

Pretty much...almost dropped that, but I get nervous as hell until I can be for sure sure

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it.

I'm pretty sure that won't be included till 12z tomorrow at the very earliest. I wouldn't take the recon into consideration till like wednesday night runs at the earliest.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Okay, according to some peeps on SouthernWX, they say that the GFS 0z is using extra information about that Baja low. I don't buy it.

Huh? They also don’t want it to move north so think it’s wrong lol