DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: These streams are so close but just refusing to interact so far. It's not squishing our storm too badly though so I don't hate it. Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Incoming.. cold powder 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Does anyone have that site that the CMC runs on for 18z? https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's definitely good. It's just hard telling QPF with these shitty maps. I don't call it unless I'm 100% sure. You just have to mentally add up the QPF shade for each 6 hour panel and there's your total. This isn't that difficult, StormtrasherRandy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Looks like 12z gfs was a blip rather than a trend. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Clearing out at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like 12z gfs was a blip rather than a trend. Gefs confirmed that when they didn’t blink at the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Incoming.. cold powder you late homie. ALthough the maps are worth the wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, CAPE said: Incoming.. cold powder Gets us into the more moderate stuff...can't complain right now after the previous cycle's fiasco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 minutes ago, csnavywx said: AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD. Any chance folks can start posting QPF and snowfall amounts for BWI/Baltimore during PBP? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Bob chill is about to get mauled by this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Does anyone have that site that the CMC runs on for 18z? I think it only runs out to 84 hours though... I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps CMC would be a hit from hour 84 extrap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC Yes, we’ve seen what the runs that do it look like. Gfs was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: you late homie. ALthough the maps are worth the wait WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Totals 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 CCB fires up at 126 over NOVA/DC. This is going to be filthy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC Each run keeps slowly trending to your "greatness" scenario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC So close! We still have time to get this right. Let's keep the trends going to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, CAPE said: WB But seriously...at least you'll have the better maps. Was hard to tell the QPF on those SV panels, but it looked a lot better than I thought 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Bob chill! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Totals It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, H2O said: You just have to mentally add up the QPF shade for each 6 hour panel and there's your total. This isn't that difficult, StormtrasherRandy No, I get that, but 1) I'm at work and actually multitasking 2) I'm slow. Like spaced out slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Just now, CAPE said: Bob chill! There it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: CMC would be a hit from hour 84 extrap. Precip shield is further north and more robust than 12z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, dailylurker said: It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?! Yeeeaaah I dont think so lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 20 minutes ago, csnavywx said: AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD. I mean it had blank spots of near zip and now all of that 0.50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormtracker said: There it is! Love seeing the totals there in a correction run. Have to think of more phasing occurs those numbers are between rich and Baltimore areas. Shows what kind of potential this has and that run didn’t even do the full Monty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Snow amounts were less then other models but a definite step in right direction Gfs still fighting for its life to catch up. Interested in gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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