January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

These streams are so close but just refusing to interact so far. It's not squishing our storm too badly though so I don't hate it. 

Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely. 

[CAPE]

Incoming.. cold powder

[mitchnick]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Does anyone have that site that the CMC runs on for 18z? 

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's definitely good.   It's just hard telling QPF with these shitty maps.  I don't call it unless I'm 100% sure.

You just have to mentally add up the QPF shade for each 6 hour panel and there's your total.  This isn't that difficult, StormtrasherRandy  

[Terpeast]

Looks like 12z gfs was a blip rather than a trend. 

[stormtracker]

Clearing out at 138

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like 12z gfs was a blip rather than a trend. 

Gefs confirmed that when they didn’t blink at the op. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Incoming.. cold powder

you late homie.  ALthough the maps are worth the wait

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, CAPE said:

Incoming.. cold powder

Gets us into the more moderate stuff...can't complain right now after the previous cycle's fiasco.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

Any chance folks can start posting QPF and snowfall amounts for BWI/Baltimore during PBP? 

[jayyy]

Bob chill is about to get mauled by this thing.

[SnowenOutThere]

Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Does anyone have that site that the CMC runs on for 18z? 

I think it only runs out to 84 hours though... I could be wrong

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

CMC would be a hit from hour 84 extrap. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC

Yes, we’ve seen what the runs that do it look like. Gfs was close. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

you late homie.  ALthough the maps are worth the wait

WB 

[SnowenOutThere]

Totals 

[clskinsfan]

CCB fires up at 126 over NOVA/DC. This is going to be filthy.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC

Each run keeps slowly trending to your "greatness" scenario....

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yk... if you got that NS energy to phase a bit further by digging more west we'd be looking at a HECS for the east coast up to NYC

So close! We still have time to get this right. Let's keep the trends going to 00z

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

WB 

But seriously...at least you'll have the better maps.   Was hard to tell the QPF on those SV panels, but it looked a lot better than I thought

[CAPE]

Bob chill!

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Totals 

It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?!

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

You just have to mentally add up the QPF shade for each 6 hour panel and there's your total.  This isn't that difficult, StormtrasherRandy  

No, I get that, but

1)  I'm at work and actually multitasking

2) I'm slow.  Like spaced out slow.

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Bob chill!

There it is!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC would be a hit from hour 84 extrap. 

Precip shield is further north and more robust than 12z!

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?!

Yeeeaaah I dont think so lol

[WEATHER53]

20 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

I mean it had blank spots of near  zip and now all of that 0.50+

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

There it is!

Love seeing the totals there in a correction run. Have to think of more phasing occurs those numbers are between rich and Baltimore areas. Shows what kind of potential this has and that run didn’t even do the full Monty.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Snow amounts were less then other models but a definite step in right direction

Gfs still fighting for its life to catch up. Interested in gefs