Scraff Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thanks to all for the visuals. Is there a 10:1 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, bncho said: That kuchera map is implying 20:1 ratios out this way. Not really buying that. But it is a 10 inch storm here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, Ji said: definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing Agree. Doesn’t effect the outcome much if any on this run but a full phase would realize the upper end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Ji said: That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Scraff said: Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? I would primarily focus on QPF for now, the Kuchera algorithm can be wonky. Having said that, I would expect favorable snow growth that would yield >10:1 ratios particularly in the second half of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Scraff said: Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? I would think for Baltimore area - north the Kuchera Ratio would be more accurate (if we want to call it that - - maybe "applicable" is a better word) based on the temp profiles for a cold powdery snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, bncho said: All jokes aside, this is certainly better than I thought...but also...Kuchera, so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Verbatim better ratios on this run make the end result virtually identical to 0z. It’s just missing the stuff that hangs back on D7 but who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS. That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+. Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that That 2nd part from the u/l low is where you'll potentially see the 20:1 stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We need to dust off the PBP....good grief!!!!! We are getting greedy saying that was a meh run. Who said it was meh/awful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that 10:1 for my area would be about 7.4" so if we get better than that a reasonable expectation would be 7-10" I ain't mad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, jwLwx said: Considering you're a boomer now, I'd say a nap. Not even close friend...but I do need a nap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro looks fantastic with the front end thump which is the "easy" part for us typically which is great to see. I don't get expect the details of the phasing/potential coastal influence to be figured out til about Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thanks for everyone chiming in. I think I’ll just go with the 12z GFS clown map instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Canadian ens a hair drier on the northern side but not really south. Mean is still 9” on the M/D line. DC actually increased to 13”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The Euro has done what we wanted. Still tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean...that is indeed a hold! Just gotta stay level-headed (good luck with that, lol). Pinks from Central NC to Upstate NY, and from Montauk to Eastern Ohio and the the western slopes of the Apps. Nice margin for error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10:1 map 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Pinks from central NC to upstate NY, and from Montauk to Eastern Ohio and the the Wester slopes of the Apps. Nice margin for error. Might as well root for a bit more amped to put the snow line just south of bob chill’s yard so we get into the heaviest meat at gametime haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just saying for many of us in here, the front end portion of the storm on the EC was still a warning level event before the coastal enhancement. SWFE’s around here tend to surprise in a positive direction. Keep that in mind. Idk if you guys remember the forecasts going into Feb 2014, but we obliterated the forecasts on the SWF portion of that storm and exceeded expectations. This storm has that type of potential. That connection of moisture between 925-500mb is incredibly healthy. We just need the general synoptics to hold. This is a southern stream addition we haven’t had in a while. That will make a difference to who gets hit the hardest. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, Pityflakes said: Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS. That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+. Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours. The GFS did start caving - and has been for days. It fully capitulated last night. This is just a brief relapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios" I wonder if the rates might be underdone by 10:1 ratios if we get a deep DGZ with moisture. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if we get some supper fluffy snow at some points which piles up nice and quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, jayyy said: Almost time for folks to extrapolate the NAM That has already begun trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 That has already begun trust me.Already had our first SREF post from Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I’m gonna say this right now and you can hold me to it; If you are north of the M/D, your average ratios will likely be >13:1 If you are between I-70 and the M/D and west of the fall line, you’re probably between 11-13:1 average. East of fall line in that bracket, probably between 10-12:1 ratio average. South of I-70 and east of the BR, 9-11:1 average with higher than 11:1 in elevations >800’ BR will be 12-15:1 thanks to elevation East of fall lines out of I-70 latitude, probably 9-11:1 average with best away from coast. Im probably missing some areas, but the key word is AVERAGE!! There will be portions that are better for sure, and the EC shows that very well. Classic ratio distribution. Keep this in mind and use QPF to create your own top and bottom ends of your snow range. 11 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 EPS precip field is a little north of the op. Leads me to believe the op is a touch south of the mean? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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