January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Scraff]

Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 

[nw baltimore wx]

Thanks to all for the visuals. Is there a 10:1 map?

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

That kuchera map is implying 20:1 ratios out this way. Not really buying that. But it is a 10 inch storm here at least. 

[Lucy Pull]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

Agree. Doesn’t effect the outcome much if any on this run but a full phase would realize the upper end potential. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that

[Winter Wizard]

Just now, Scraff said:

Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 

I would primarily focus on QPF for now, the Kuchera algorithm can be wonky. Having said that, I would expect favorable snow growth that would yield >10:1 ratios particularly in the second half of the storm. 

[AdamHLG]

Just now, Scraff said:

Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 

I would think for Baltimore area - north the Kuchera Ratio would be more accurate (if we want to call it that - - maybe "applicable" is a better word) based on the temp profiles for a cold powdery snow.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 

10:1

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

 All jokes aside, this is certainly better than I thought...but also...Kuchera, so..

[T. August]

Verbatim better ratios on this run make the end result virtually identical to 0z. It’s just missing the stuff that hangs back on D7 but who cares?

[Pityflakes]

Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS.  That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+.  Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that

That 2nd part from the u/l low is where you'll potentially see the 20:1 stuff.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We need to dust off the PBP....good grief!!!!! We are getting greedy saying that was a meh run.

Who said it was meh/awful?

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

That's about 18 - 1 ratios....I'm not so sure about that

10:1 for my area would be about 7.4" so if we get better than that a reasonable expectation would be 7-10" I ain't mad

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, jwLwx said:

Considering you're a boomer now, I'd say a nap.

Not even close friend...but I do need a nap

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro looks fantastic with the front end thump which is the "easy" part for us typically which is great to see.  I don't get expect the details of the phasing/potential coastal influence to be figured out til about Friday morning.  

[Scraff]

Thanks for everyone chiming in. I think I’ll just go with the 12z GFS clown map instead. 

[T. August]

Canadian ens a hair drier on the northern side but not really south. Mean is still 9” on the M/D line. DC actually increased to 13”.

[Solution Man]

The Euro has done what we wanted. Still tracking 

 

[TowsonWeather]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...that is indeed a hold! Just gotta stay level-headed (good luck with that, lol).

Pinks from Central NC to Upstate NY, and from Montauk to Eastern Ohio and the the western slopes of the Apps. Nice margin for error.

[nw baltimore wx]

10:1 map

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Pinks from central NC to upstate NY, and from Montauk to Eastern Ohio and the the Wester slopes of the Apps. Nice margin for error.

Might as well root for a bit more amped to put the snow line just south of bob chill’s yard so we get into the heaviest meat at gametime haha

[MillvilleWx]

Just saying for many of us in here, the front end portion of the storm on the EC was still a warning level event before the coastal enhancement. SWFE’s around here tend to surprise in a positive direction. Keep that in mind. Idk if you guys remember the forecasts going into Feb 2014, but we obliterated the forecasts on the SWF portion of that storm and exceeded expectations. This storm has that type of potential. That connection of moisture between 925-500mb is incredibly healthy. We just need the general synoptics to hold. This is a southern stream addition we haven’t had in a while. That will make a difference to who gets hit the hardest. 

[TowsonWeather]

6 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS.  That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+.  Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours. 

The GFS did start caving - and has been for days. It fully capitulated last night. This is just a brief relapse. 

[NorthArlington101]

Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios"

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios"

I wonder if the rates might be underdone by 10:1 ratios if we get a deep DGZ with moisture. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if we get some supper fluffy snow at some points which piles up nice and quick. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, jayyy said:

Almost time for folks to extrapolate the NAM

That has already begun trust me.

[jayyy]

That has already begun trust me.

Already had our first SREF post from Chuck

[MillvilleWx]

I’m gonna say this right now and you can hold me to it;

 

If you are north of the M/D, your average ratios will likely be >13:1

If you are between I-70 and the M/D and west of the fall line, you’re probably between 11-13:1 average. 
 

East of fall line in that bracket, probably between 10-12:1 ratio average. 
 

South of I-70 and east of the BR, 9-11:1 average with higher than 11:1 in elevations >800’

BR will be 12-15:1 thanks to elevation 

East of fall lines out of I-70 latitude, probably 9-11:1 average with best away from coast. 
 

Im probably missing some areas, but the key word is AVERAGE!! There will be portions that are better for sure, and the EC shows that very well. Classic ratio distribution. Keep this in mind and use QPF to create your own top and bottom ends of your snow range. 

[clskinsfan]

EPS precip field is a little north of the op. Leads me to believe the op is a touch south of the mean?