January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

UKMET says watch out for thunderstorms

 

[HKY_WX]

I don't see much other than noise on the models tonight. They have started to lock in on this one IMO. I'm a big analog guy, and as we all know the weather/climate tends to run in patterns. As stated a few times, this a very similiar setup to dec 2002 in a lot of ways. Not a perfect comparison, specifically b/c it was in early December, however it was one of the better ones I could find. The GFS is also reminding me a bit of 2/2/96 icestorm with brief changeover to snow at the end. That system was probably the worst icestorm in recent history for the foothills and also similar to this one with the STJ wave diving so deep into Mexico, along with some northern stream phasing and bitter cold following it. This will be a very memorable storm, so buckle up.

 

[64Storm]

Kudos to the Atlanta FFC on their incredibly detailed and well written AFD tonight. 

 

Quote

019
FXUS62 KFFC 222334
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
634 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

 - A high impact ice storm is anticipated in northern Georgia this
   weekend. A Winter Storm Watch has been expanded for most of
   north Georgia and a small portion of central Georgia. The
   northern portion of the watch is in effect from 1 AM Saturday
   through 10 AM Monday, while areas generally near and south of
   I-20 are from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM Monday.

 - Widespread impacts to travel are anticipated over the weekend
   due to the ice, and power outages are likely.

 - Dangerously cold temperatures will arrive by Sunday night and
   persist into next week, and cold weather dangers could be
   exacerbated by ongoing power outages.

 - Now is the time to review your family`s emergency plan and make
   preparations for hazardous weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Rain showers are ongoing across north Georgia this afternoon as a
frontal boundary becomes stationary across Middle Georgia. Waves of
light to occasionally moderate rain showers will linger near and
north of this front overnight tonight into Friday morning as a weak
midlevel shortwave traverses the flow. Showers will then taper off
by midday Friday. Rainfall totals through tomorrow will largely
range from a tenth to a third of an inch within a band near and
north of the stationary frontal boundary. Drier conditions will
return, albeit briefly, through Friday night as a CAD wedge begins
to build in at the surface and southwest flow aloft leads into our
potential winter weather this weekend.

As far as temperatures are concerned, lows tonight will remain above
freezing areawide, ranging from the mid 30s in far north Georgia
through the 40s elsewhere. There will be a significant range in
temperatures across the area on Friday with highs in the 40s and 50s
north of the stationary front across north Georgia to as high as the
lower 70s in far southern portions of Middle Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

TL;DR:

Interplay between a strong (1040+ mb) Arctic high, strong moisture
advection, and developing cold air damming (CAD) will support a
significant ice storm -- ice/freezing rain as the primary and most
impactful precipitation type -- across portions of north and
central Georgia this weekend, with impacts carrying over into next
week. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for far north and
northeast Georgia from 1AM Saturday through 10AM Monday, and for
portions of central and northwest Georgia from 1PM Saturday
through 10AM Monday. Ice accumulations greater than a quarter of
an inch will make travel impossible in some locations, and when
combined with wind gusts of 20-30 mph, may cause widespread
weather-related power outages. As precipitation tapers off on
Monday, a frigid, unseasonably cold airmass will move in on its
heels. Meaningful melting may not occur until Tuesday, prolonging
impacts across north Georgia into next week.

What We Know:

1) Consensus on a remarkable warm nose (between global model
guidance and the NAM, the first of our CAMs to have this event in
their purview) -- of almost 10C at 850mb. This combined with
temperatures at or slightly below freezing at the surface supports
increasing confidence in freezing rain/ice accumulations being our
primary hazard. Snow accumulations have tapered off to effectively
zero, though we may see a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain at
onset of the event late Saturday within the core of the wedge/CAD
airmass (generally between the Atlanta Metro and Athens and points
north and east).

2) A strong Arctic high sliding into place across the Northeast will
set the stage for strong, classical cold air damming -- a phenomenon
notoriously difficult to resolve in numerical models, which tends to
erode our cool, stable airmass far too quickly. As overrunning
moisture precipitates into the wedge, it is reinforced and
strengthened via evaporative cooling. The breadth and strength of
the wedge will be the difference between a potentially crippling ice
storm (stronger, longer-lasting cool air at the surface;
accumulation up to an inch of ice in our typical wedge areas, and
potentially more) and a more "run of the mill" ice storm.

3) The deterministic Euro made waves across the weather enterprise
with its warm/northerly trend yesterday (which was an outlier in its
own ensemble). 12z deterministic Euro guidance has come in cooler,
and a tick to the south -- more in line with the ensemble mean.
Notably, this comes two cycles after reconnaissance dropsonde data
was incorporated, which allowed for more accurate sampling of key
forecast features. Trends in ensemble guidance continue to support a
footprint of potentially significant ice accumulation across much of
north and north central Georgia.

4) After precipitation tapers off areawide, likely by mid-morning
Monday, a secondary Arctic surface high will fill in across north
and central Georgia (and much of Southern and Eastern CONUS) in its
wake. A much colder, much drier airmass will linger for the
remainder of the week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to
30s in areas that received ice accumulation, potentially postponing
meaningful melting beginning until perhaps Tuesday at the latest.

Concerns exist that weather-related power outages may continue if
roadways remain in poor condition into next week, potentially
overlapping with lows in the single digits to teens on Tuesday
morning (and "feels like" temperatures below zero for portions of
far north Georgia).

What Remains Uncertain:

1) The extent of the cold airmass/wedge. Pattern recognition, past
experience/expertise, and theory point to the strength and staying
power as the wedge builds in, but ice accumulations in locales
roughly along an arc extending from Rome to Newnan to Augusta remain
highly uncertain/on a fine line meteorologically. Current thinking
is that low-end (but impactful) ice accumulations are possible over
the course of the day Sunday for the aforementioned areas, but
intensity and location will depend heavily on the southwestern
progression of the cool dome. Additionally, a stronger wedge will
impact upper-bounds of ice accumulation, which are likely to be
situated within the core of the cold air -- from the Northern Metro
to Athens and points north and east.

2) Exact timing of onset and changeover. An initial push of freezing
rain/a wintry mix is possible just before daybreak Saturday along
the GA/TN border, with the "main event" so to speak beginning later
Saturday afternoon across northeast Georgia as cold air damming
extends southward along the Appalachian Mountains. Timing will hinge
on temperature profiles, which will come into finer detail as HiRes
guidance becomes available -- beginning tomorrow.

3) Speed of erosion of cold air on the southern edge of the wedge.
Dewpoints across far south central Georgia on Sunday afternoon look
to surge into the upper 50s to lower 60s -- sufficiently soupy to
support thunderstorms butting right up against the periphery of our
ice footprint. If the wedge begins to retreat or erode early on
Sunday, chances for thunderstorms may spread further northward.
Severe weather appears to be unlikely at this time, but care will
need to be taken to monitor this as a tertiary threat given what is
likely to be a broad surface temperature gradient (in the 30s to 40s
within the wedge, and potentially in the upper 60s to near 70 to the
south), and helicity generated along the edge of the wedge boundary.

Subsequent tweaks (and eventual upgrades) to our Winter Storm Watch
are likely to come either overnight tonight or tomorrow. The broader
picture -- a potentially major ice storm across portions of north
and central Georgia -- is becoming more and more certain, but fine
details that may determine the magnitude of impacts are likely still
to come as this event enters the short term. Continue to work on
preparations if you are in or close to the aforementioned areas, and
endeavor to be ready to enact your preparations, and postpone
travel, by Saturday when conditions begin to deteriorate.

 

[Coach McGuirk]

31 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I don't see much other than noise on the models tonight. They have started to lock in on this one IMO. I'm a big analog guy, and as we all know the weather/climate tends to run in patterns. As stated a few times, this a very similiar setup to dec 2002 in a lot of ways. Not a perfect comparison, specifically b/c it was in early December, however it was one of the better ones I could find. The GFS is also reminding me a bit of 2/2/96 icestorm with brief changeover to snow at the end. That system was probably the worst icestorm in recent history for the foothills and also similar to this one with the STJ wave diving so deep into Mexico, along with some northern stream phasing and bitter cold following it. This will be a very memorable storm, so buckle up.

 

2/2/96 was a snow/sleet/zr storm accumulated 6 inches here then it got down to 0 zero degrees. 

[sakau2007]

35 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I don't see much other than noise on the models tonight. They have started to lock in on this one IMO. I'm a big analog guy, and as we all know the weather/climate tends to run in patterns. As stated a few times, this a very similiar setup to dec 2002 in a lot of ways. Not a perfect comparison, specifically b/c it was in early December, however it was one of the better ones I could find. The GFS is also reminding me a bit of 2/2/96 icestorm with brief changeover to snow at the end. That system was probably the worst icestorm in recent history for the foothills and also similar to this one with the STJ wave diving so deep into Mexico, along with some northern stream phasing and bitter cold following it. This will be a very memorable storm, so buckle up.

idk how much it changes the analog for NC.. but the 2/2/96 storm didn't have nearly as much warm air advection -- that was the most memorable ice storm of my life (and the best sledding of my life as well) we stayed in all frozen precip in Birmingham.... whereas this time around, it looks like we could reach 60 degrees, and there could be a changeover to just rain well into TN if not KY. 

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

idk how much it changes the analog for NC.. but the 2/2/96 storm didn't have nearly as much warm air advection -- that was the most memorable ice storm of my life (and the best sledding of my life as well) we stayed in all frozen precip in Birmingham.... whereas this time around, it looks like we could reach 60 degrees, and there could be a changeover to just rain well into TN if not KY. 

It was supposed to be rain here, and all of a sudden it's freezing rain on the cars at basketball practice. 

[Coach McGuirk]

The forecast is 22 degrees Saturday night then 40 degrees on Sunday.  There is no way that happens if it is Snow/Sleet at 22. 

[Disc]

[btownheel]

Blacksburg still likes the odds of a little front end thump in northern NC. Nice to see.


.

[IceQueen706]

Ice Storm Warning for NE Ga!

[MDsnowPRO]

Just now, IceQueen706 said:

Ice Storm Warning for NE Ga!

That area is in big trouble, could be devastating 

[Disc]

15 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Blacksburg still likes the odds of a little front end thump in northern NC. Nice to see.


.

Keep in mind, these maps include sleet. It may start as brief snow, but predominant p-type in NC will likely be sleet.

[DTP]

 

2 hours ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

I thought the same until i read an article about sleet sticking to snow that's already fallen on trees and powerlines and adding weight. 

If it were falling on something already covered in snow, yes....the crystalline structure of the individual snowflakes changes the surface of the aforementioned curved object (branches, powerlines)...crystals have many edges and sharp angles that grab and hold, which is why they can stick to a curved surface 

Plus the cohesive and adhesive forces of water come into play, especially when the snow is slightly wet.  Adhesive forces are what allow water molecules to stick to an object, and vice-versa; cohesion allows water molecules to stick to other water molecules 

With this in mind, sleet would definitely stick best to wet snow on branches or power lines 

 

[IceQueen706]

2 hours ago, MDsnowPRO said:

That area is in big trouble, could be devastating 

And that's what I'm scared of for us.

[EarlGrey]

From WRAL. Forecasting 1 inch of freezing rain. 

[AppalachianWedge]

I agree. It’s madness as well having this much access to data. I yearn for the lost days where you had to wait 12 hrs to see a limited amount of models. Information overload. 2 hrs ago everyone was breathing deeper with cams showing more sleet. One mild shift in the gfs an hour later and we can toss the 36 hrs of freezing rain in the 20s it showed. 
 
You’re all nuts, but it’s what keeps me coming back. 

One of the worst things that ever happened to this country is access to 24 hour news.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Upstate Tiger]

06z GFS and Euro seemed honed in on the evolution of the storm with GFS still faster.  Both show front end snow for NC and then the fun begins.  Didn’t check thermals.  Got to get to the hospital for storm prep.  NAM…IDK what it’s doing.   

[buckeyefan1]

Looks like GSP will wait for another round of model runs before deciding on the specific warning. You know it’s going to be difficult when the short term guidance that always runs warm is the coldest of them all  

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks like GSP will wait for another round of model runs before deciding on the specific warning. You know it’s going to be difficult when the short term guidance that always runs warm is the coldest of them all  

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

I believe for ISW it has to be mainly ice and no snow 

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

I’m honestly not sure, but my thinking is it would be a winter storm over ice storm if there’s more sleet/snow and an ice warning for above .50 with less sleet/snow. A lot of counties with a shit ton of elevation changes on top of model madness in handling the wedge will take time to sift through it all. That warm nose is as stout as the wedge and it’s going to be an awesome battle to watch unfold 

[yoda]

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/criteria

Thats what ILM states for ISW:

"Freezing rain is the only or predominate type of wintry precipitation and is expected to accumulate to ¼ inch or greater during a period of 24 hours or less."

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

Everything I am reading mentions that FR has to be the predominant precip type before anything else.  I assume since there is still so much up in the air right now, this is why no warnings have been issued yet.  Timing is normally 12-36 hours before the precip begins.  My hunch is that for most of NC, it would be Winter Storm, but it could be Ice Storm for some of the southern regions.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/criteria

Thats what ILM states for ISW:

"Freezing rain is the only or predominate type of wintry precipitation and is expected to accumulate to ¼ inch or greater during a period of 24 hours or less."

Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for

[gman]

I have the same sick feeling that I had the days leading up to Helene. The Upstate folks have a sense of gloom and doom. The grocery store and hardware store shelves are empty. If we do get the inch or more of freezing rain, the entire area’s power grid will be down for days again. People might die due to the extreme cold. Praying for everyone.

[olafminesaw]

REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet

 

 

 

[Snowberd]

Can someone please explain to me like I'm 5 how weather apps like AccuWeather can significantly decrease the ice totals and duration and severity of this storm in Greenville while the models euro/GFS are raising ice totals? AccuWeather has .19 for Saturday night and .17 for Sunday. So .36 for the whole storm. Chris Justus is hyping ice totals to catastrophic and giving Greenville .75. I'd say there's a huge difference between the damage .36 total of ice will cause as opposed to the .75 most everyone else is forecasting. Why these lowball ice predictions on these apps compared to everyone else?

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

Can someone please explain to me like I'm 5 how weather apps like AccuWeather can significantly decrease the ice totals and duration and severity of this storm in Greenville while the models euro/GFS are raising ice totals? AccuWeather has .19 for Saturday night and .17 for Sunday. So .36 for the whole storm. Chris Justus is hyping ice totals to catastrophic and giving Greenville .75. I'd say there's a huge difference between the damage .36 total of ice will cause as opposed to the .75 most everyone else is forecasting. Why these lowball ice predictions on these apps compared to everyone else?

Because weather apps are based on nothing we in this group value: precedence, analogs, multiple data points and human input. It’s why I hate that any of these apps bother. All it does is mislead the public. 

[buckeyefan1]

4 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

Can someone please explain to me like I'm 5 how weather apps like AccuWeather can significantly decrease the ice totals and duration and severity of this storm in Greenville while the models euro/GFS are raising ice totals? AccuWeather has .19 for Saturday night and .17 for Sunday. So .36 for the whole storm. Chris Justus is hyping ice totals to catastrophic and giving Greenville .75. I'd say there's a huge difference between the damage .36 total of ice will cause as opposed to the .75 most everyone else is forecasting. Why these lowball ice predictions on these apps compared to everyone else?


.

Because it’s only an app. It can’t hold all the information. It changes several times a day. It’s great for watching radar, but never ever use an app to make your plans regarding the weather. 

[NorthHillsWx]

RAH mentions decreased QPF on overnight modeling for the NC piedmont in their recent AFD. Still going with 0.5-0.75” ZR