January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[buckeyefan1]

Ya'll live and die in here with each run. There's a thread for this, please use it for your cliff diving 

[SnowDawg]

It's really not that big of a jump if you've watched the trends with the northern shortwave getting stronger and digging further SW. It's just that once it goes far enough to fully phase, the upper level warmth wins out.

[85snowline]

Because I’m old I can say from experience that setups like this will verify with mostly snow in Winston/Gso… snow to ice to snow in CLT and about half and half in RDU with Durham of course cashing in pretty good compared to Raleigh. That’s just how these go and most of you know that. Screw the models and just enjoy a good ol’ fashioned NC winter storm!!! 

[BornAgain13]

Quite the jump north with the snow on the EPS. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

It's really not that big of a jump if you've watched the trends with the northern shortwave getting stronger and digging further SW. It's just that once it goes far enough to fully phase, the upper level warmth wins out.

There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Because I’m old I can say from experience that setups like will verify with mostly snow in Winston/Gso… snow to ice to snow in CLT and about half and half in RDU with Durham of course cashing in pretty good compared to Raleigh. That’s just how these go and most of you know that. Screw the models and just enjoy a good ol’ fashioned NC winter storm!!! 

Great post!

[Thrasher Fan]

Jimbo back surgery back on?

[PackGrad05]

12 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Because I’m old I can say from experience that setups like this will verify with mostly snow in Winston/Gso… snow to ice to snow in CLT and about half and half in RDU with Durham of course cashing in pretty good compared to Raleigh. That’s just how these go and most of you know that. Screw the models and just enjoy a good ol’ fashioned NC winter storm!!! 

Agreed wholeheartedly.

[WiseWeather]

NWS not buying the Euro?




.

[buckeyefan1]

It's a ginormous sleet bomb for a lot of folks  Those clown maps are horrible. There's 3 days to go and the mood swings as each model runs have been just as epic and horrible.  I'm going to repeat myself and say this will be a high impact event for a lot of people. There will be snow. There will be sleet. There will be freezing rain. Where any of this will fall, or for how long, or for how many different times, or for how many different variations of winter at the same time will hit mby, yby, your neighbors backyard, etc is anyone's guess. It's what we do as nerds. Dissect every run. Ya'll aren't dissecting, you're whining. So buckle up buttercup and store all of it in your memory, because the ride is about to hit warp speed as it comes into hi res view

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

NWS not buying the Euro?




.

Issued around lunch time

[WiseWeather]

Issued around lunch time

Good catch… my bad


.

[PackGrad05]

NWS will wait for 2-3 runs of model consistency before changing their official forecast, as they should...  If the 00Z and 6Z EUROs look similar, expect them to shift accordingly.

[BornAgain13]

If 0z continues the trending north, this board will melt down quick. Even at 4 days out 

[MDsnowPRO]

Man, watching from the sidelines in Charleston is making me want to load up the truck and do some chasing. Feel so close but know that we are out of the game down here on the coast  

[Tony Sisk]

56 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Look at the trends. It moves north every run. At this rate, only Washington DC will see snow.

If trends are continuing to move it north…that means the High is not as strong as first though.

[Brick Tamland]

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

If 0z continues the trending north, this board will melt down quick. Even at 4 days out 

Whatever happens will happen. We have no co trol over it. It's like watching your favorite sports teams. Sometimes they win in a blow out, sometimes they get blown out. Sometimes they win a close one, sometimes they lose at the buzzer.

[gwlee7]

IIRC, the DFW to NC connection didn’t hold last time all of us from TX to the SE were supposed to get wintery precipitation.   Once again, I will happily report in with what is happening 10 miles N of DFW airport.   

[ADB83]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Whatever happens will happen. We have no co trol over it. It's like watching your favorite sports teams. Sometimes they win in a blow out, sometimes they get blown out. Sometimes they win a close one, sometimes they lose at the buzzer.

True. Although in recent years, I would argue it’s like rooting for the Carolina Panthers. But, they DID get better this year!

[strongwxnc]

6 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

If trends are continuing to move it north…that means the High is not as strong as first though.

Best site for current upper levels in upper Canada ? Would love to track this high pressure. 

 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

4 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

IIRC, the DFW to NC connection didn’t hold last time all of us from TX to the SE were supposed to get wintery precipitation.   Once again, I will happily report in with what is happening 10 miles N of DFW airport.   

You folks are already under a Winter Storm Watch aren't you?

[mailleon]

11 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

IIRC, the DFW to NC connection didn’t hold last time all of us from TX to the SE were supposed to get wintery precipitation.   Once again, I will happily report in with what is happening 10 miles N of DFW airport.   

Send Brisket and Beef Ribs

[digital snow]

My 2 dollars (inflation)

The models don't have it honed in yet. It is drifting N. It was always going to drift N. That sleet bomb depicted in GA has been hunting me down for the past two days. I thought I saw it in the HT parking lot. If you have been in C NC 25 yrs+ you know in your deepest of hearts that we will top out at 6 in. of snow (likely less) and sleet and freezing rain our way home. I hate it, you hate it. For the nerds out there it is called climo. Fwiw, this is going to be a huge winter storm. Living in NC means you can't get your panties twisted up over ptypes. Godspeed.

[AirNelson39]

Time is still on our side (NC snow weenies). I’ve seen it too many times with these early trends 4+ days out only to work its way back in the other direction considerably. I think we see something between what the 18z euro showed and what the 18z gfs showed.

[SnowDawg]

Anyone have any explanation for the lack of sleet on the Euro? It's like all snow or all ice/rain with no in between. I guess it's just so quick with the Baja low that the wedge never gets a chance to build in.

[gwlee7]

15 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

You folks are already under a Winter Storm Watch aren't you?

Yes.  According to NWS, things should start up mid to late afternoon Friday.  

[UpStateCAD]

If I remember correctly from a decade ago when these sleet / ice storms occurred regularly, neither the gfs nor the euro handled the intricacies of the thermal layers well in these set ups.    Is there a medium range model that does better with predicting snow vs sleet vs ice?    Ignoring precip amounts?    Was it the Canadian or the uk?  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

If I remember correctly from a decade ago when these sleet / ice storms occurred regularly, neither the gfs nor the euro handled the intricacies of the thermal layers well in these set ups.    Is there a medium range model that does better with predicting snow vs sleet vs ice?    Ignoring precip amounts?    Was it the Canadian or the uk?  

The Euro/NAM/RGEM are really the only models that'll see wedging/CAD but even those tend to underestimate it at times beyond 48 hours.  The UKMET/GFS/CMC can underestimate it.

[BooneWX]

Guys, I’ve been on this forum for a long time, and I’ve lurked on it much longer than that. In no way am I saying it isn’t trending north. You’d be blind to not see the trend the last 12 hrs. It may keep going north and we all may really crash out BUT…I have never once in my time tracking seen us not have a bad suite or two mixed in. It always happens, even in those “locked in” solutions. There’s always been a hot light on at least a few times in the tracking progression for the sanitarium or banter thread. This time is no different. I think the 2020s being so awful for winter weather has certainly made runs like that look and feel more painful. 
 

Here’s what I’m doing tonight and I encourage you all to do the same: go to bed. You’ll wake up tomorrow and it’ll be better, the worse or same and then when you’re wiping the crust out of your eyes, 6z will have something entirely different. Get some rest tonight, we might need it this weekend. Sawing pine trees isn’t light work. 

[SnowDawg]

The GFS is showing tons of sleet and a much deeper wedge signature in the temps, but I suppose the timing of onset relative to the HP building in is a big factor.