Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There’s a mild possibility that Tolland is smack in the middle of the pack-less zone. Like draw a 20-30 mile oval around Tolland. Yes I know . Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 2” of QPF on that prog back to Litchfield county. That was a pretty high stakes miss by the euro even though by 2015 standards, the distance miss wasn’t speculator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, weathafella said: On to football Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, cut said: Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts? I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2” of QPF on that prog back to Litchfield county. That was a pretty high stakes miss by the euro even though by 2015 standards, the distance miss wasn’t speculator. The Philly area got the worst of it. Forecasted by NWS to get 8 to 12. Ended up with 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. I nailed all the games in round 1 so (6 points to 1 point) so I have 21 points and have a little wiggle room. Just don't want to blow my 4 pointer this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. Plus the QB 'injury' for SEA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, cut said: Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts? SEA,NE,BUF, CHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, weathafella said: SEA,NE,BUF, CHI I'd gt my 4,3,and 2 points that way - I take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Keep an eye on the Navgem, that holds the key. i can't find that anymore, isn't it discontinued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 When I have to hang hat on BOX to get me any snow this weekend it’s pretty freaking sad . But it’s all we’ve got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i can't find that anymore, isn't it discontinued? No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think what's navgem show for tomorrow and sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: what's navgem show for tomorrow and sunday? 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There will be snow pack across all of E MA and W CT and an ugly brown area from say BDR up to or just SE of ORH. I am sick to my stomach Don’t forgot the cold suppression possibly next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS looked better too. Gets 1-2” from about Ginxy up to BOS. Gonna need another bump NW for real snow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: We will never forget or forgive… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Don’t forgot the cold suppression possibly next week. This weekend is going to really hurt . I’ll need to stay away from the board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This weekend is going to really hurt . I’ll need to stay away from the board Dude if I can be on here after all your power tools rammed into my behind you can too. Christ. You still could get snow tomorrow and perhaps Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Call me crazy but if this doesn’t work out and the AI models don’t verify… wouldn’t this be a point for @Typhoon Tip? Hear me out. The AI models are looking at historical data vs current at initialization and running it through (it’s not learning despite what people think), at a very basic level. So 20, 30, yrs ago- whatever, given current ingredients we would be looking at a plowable snow. But fast flow, gradient etc… it ends up weak ( that has been the theme for yrs) and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude if I can be on here after all your power tools rammed into my behind you can too. Christ. You still could get snow tomorrow and perhaps Sunday night. The writings on the wall. I started sensing it this morning and then Will just cemented it . Something about MLK and snow here. They don’t mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The writings on the wall. I started sensing it this morning and then Will just cemented it . Something about MLK and snow here. They don’t mix You always do this and then pull something out of your ass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CoastalWx said: You always do this and then pull something out of your ass. Normally I’m hype and positive. I feel neither as of now . Honestly . Going into this as depressed as can be. Good luck out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A theory to explain the AI vs GFS/ECMWF battle could be the latent heat release - wave development feedback loop that Eric Webb mentioned a day or two ago. Shortwaves that tap Gulf moisture are susceptible to this effect. If this is biasing the global models too flat aloft, it could explain why the AIs are further west since they can bias-correct based on historical outcomes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albany NY 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 9 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, eastern New York, and southern Vermont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: A theory to explain the AI vs GFS/ECMWF battle could be the latent heat release - wave development feedback loop that Eric Webb mentioned a day or two ago. Shortwaves that tap Gulf moisture are susceptible to this effect. If this is biasing the global models too flat aloft, it could explain why the AIs are further west since they can bias-correct based on historical outcomes. Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct I'm not sure what you mean. I'm interested - fascinated really - why the AI models have been consistently west of their parent models for the past few days. I have not seen that behavior consistently or persistently earlier this season. And I offered one potential explanation for this specific situation. I reflexively tend to think the least snowy model will be correct, even if that's not scientifically sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: The Philly area got the worst of it. Forecasted by NWS to get 8 to 12. Ended up with 0. I recall the abject bewilderment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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