First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Modfan2]

Hoping @Ginx snewxis good….Hills of E CT into W RI look good on this one.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Fair, but they are confusing snow today with tomorrow.. Many think that's for today's snow.. 

I think it's very very close. I'm absolutely torn between 3-6 and 4-8. I agree that there will be some surprises with the morning band. Just not sure how widespread that will be. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it's very very close. I'm absolutely torn between 3-6 and 4-8. I agree that there will be some surprises with the morning band. Just not sure how widespread that will be. 

If I know how you roll you’ll go 3-6”

[TalcottWx]

40 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

4-8 IPA's??

High probability of that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx area to NW RI

4-6 here up thru ORH

Thetes a mid level band in the morning that many are not mentioning 

850 low doesn't close until it's gone.

[HoarfrostHubb]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior. 

Hard to see 4” 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Widespread 2-4” would be my call 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

850 low doesn't close until it's gone.

Sure but that has nothing to do with the morning snow 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro AI east 

[wxsniss]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm no. That's a black box description.  It doesn't describe the gears of the model. 

You can believe what you like.   You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously.   Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.    

 

Relax man, this feels a bit like amplifying a disagreement out of thin air... (a strength of this forum is the enrichment of ENTPs?)

Preponderance of legacy physics models Wed-Friday last week had Jan 18 a graze or completely out to sea vs. AI guidance almost invariably had a substantial advisory-warning hit across the southeast and more. The move of legacy models towards the AI guidance at 12z today suggested AI guidance could be correct, obviously with verification TBD.

You're reiterating the point I made multiple times: a major weakness of AI guidance is that how a solution is achieved is opaque, and we can't point to a physics-based mechanism for why they are consistent or change.

In any case, this field is at least something kind of evolving and cool to distract us from the latest of a series of disappointing winters.

I haven't looked at guidance since 12z, but my current take for Sunday: generally 2-4" eastern SN, spots 3-6" on south shore and Cape, 2-3" around Worcester area and less further west

Hoping at least for some Foxboro snow mojo of yore...

[BrianW]

WTNH's map.

 

[Masswx]

We cancel

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, BrianW said:

WTNH's map.

 

I just got home from work and saw that same map. The funny thing is everyone was saying today was going to be crap, and we would end up getting almost 4 in here in Plainville. I was only expecting an inch from what what the predictions were from the meteorologists in the area as well as several people on this forum. 

[CoastalWx]

We Lucy

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sure but that has nothing to do with the morning snow 

I must have misunderstood/missed something.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We Lucy

Yup. Tale as old as time 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

We cancel

Has dad burned all of the family toys and heirlooms yet?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro east and meh

[Damage In Tolland]

Those two are just so miserable (not MassWx)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is going to disappoint. 12z head fake coming back to earth 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is going to disappoint. 12z head fake coming back to earth 

even if it fails atleast we had a good storm here today

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

even if it fails atleast we had a good storm here today

Everything is on track for another good snow event tomorrow. Just have to ignore those two whining looking at op runs a few hours before go time calling for no snow 

[Masswx]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

even if it fails atleast we had a good storm here today

Glad you got something. We got nothing, again 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

even if it fails atleast we had a good storm here today

Yeah that really moves my mojo

[Masswx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Glad you got something. We got nothing, again 

Yep, suffering down here

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Great job kid, it'll make your dad proud.. Cool to share the same passion as your dad, my kids could care less about snow, but my son shares my passion for sports.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Great job kid, it'll make your dad proud.. Cool to share the same passion as your dad, my kids could care less about snow, but my son shares my passion for sports.

he needs something to show success. Everything has been failed.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Not terrible.  

[CoastalWx]

Kid is good