First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Could that IVT be a precursor to a jump west next cycle by the NAM? Almost like not knowing where to put the low..so that’s the intermediate solution?

It doesn’t have to mean that, but it’s often a good sign in that if we get the vort a little better, we’d prob see a fast bump west on main precip shield. You get the IVT because while the thermal gradient is being shunted too far east (usually because WCB is too weak), we’re getting good dPVA which wants to drop the pressure at the sfc. The goal is get that to line up witn the thermal gradient and then we’d be in sync. 

[DomNH]

1-2’’ from an inverted dong would be a fitting outcome for this “threat”. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Desperate times call for desperate measures, the RRFS is much farther west gets accumulating snow to river close to warning SEMASS

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You always do this and then pull something out of your ass.

I’m thinking maybe a Weedwhacker or edging tool this weekend. 

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’d rather compare the upper levels rather than QPF. It seems like they throw QPF further back than you would expect from the shortwave, but sometimes as you get close the shortwaves trend more amplified. So are the AIs sometimes right for the wrong reasons?

Agree, could be both at play

AIs are fuzzy/probabilistic at H5 (potentially a weakness or a strength depending on context), but here's a comparison of 12z runs today, for Monday 0z timepoint...

AIGFS does have significantly better tilt that could be responsible for northwest extent of QPF... and it also seems to have an overdone spread of QPF (also to eastern extent) in comparison to legacy GFS:

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn’t have to mean that, but it’s often a good sign in that if we get the vort a little better, we’d prob see a fast bump west on main precip shield. You get the IVT because while the thermal gradient is being shunted too far east (usually because WCB is too weak), we’re getting good dPVA which wants to drop the pressure at the sfc. The goal is get that to line up witn the thermal gradient and then we’d be in sync. 

If we can get that vort better this would take off...and hell maybe the AIs are really out that prospect. But even looking at the GFS and how the we get a developing jet stream lifting poleward...you get quicker pressure falls at the sfc and the low to pop right along or near the Carolina coast, this thing probably tracks close to the benchmark. It might be a big ask but it really isn't far off from being a reality. 

[ineedsnow]

18Z RGEM about the same as 12z

[ineedsnow]

Maybe even increased a bit

[HIPPYVALLEY]

WOR needs to lay down an inch or two tomorrow because I think Monday is a no go this far inland. 
I could envision some scenario where Dave and Ineedafix get a couple tomorrow and then some MLM if the 2nd system tics a little closer. 

[ineedsnow]

18z Reggie 

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Reggie 

For once I like where I am, right on the RI in E CT can’t be a bad thing?!

[weatherwiz]

Looks like recon is out...not sure if related to the storm but seems to be sampling along and within the Gulf 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Need some bigger jumps in the 0z guidance because there will be inevitable tics East closer to go time. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Reggie 

Congrats Kev 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Kev 

Because having Reggie all alone always wins.

said no one ever 

[SouthCoastMA]

where are my 6hr and 12hr GFS updates on whether the big dawg is coming/or not.  

 

[dryslot]

Reggie sucks and has sucked all winter, Piggy back it with the HRRR, 2015 is not coming in the door.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

where are my 6hr and 12hr GFS updates on whether the big dawg is coming/or not.  

 

It looks better early on but no idea how it will end up 

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wait, what did i do ? 

wait first of all, we don't know precisely how ... and by defacto 'what' these AI (apparent marketing gimmicks )  are doing.  so how can we be sure about 20 or 30 years ago anyway? 

that's I pointed this out yesterday..  there's been no prospecti made easy to find - if at all - that answers the questions that everybody should be asking but no one is!  jesus... degradation of virtuosity and method on both side.   whereby any kind of advantages and disadvantages, circumstantially; basic modeling 101 stuff that has to be considered.   confidence intervals... methodologies.  nothing.   we can't say jack shit about them. 

I'm hugely displeased at deployment and anyone that uses them .... man, caveat emptor

I think the biggest issue with the AI models is that we/they call them AI models.  They are just using a different way of processing the data.  This isn't an endorsement or indictment of these models, but, I am a firm believer that hardware and software engineering has progressed enough since the first numerical models were developed that augmenting them with training data and neural processing, things that weren't available a decade ago, seems like a worthwhile endeavor.

We had AI before chatbots became mainstream and it was called "machine learning", and the newer models are much closer to that than having a conversation with ChatGPT and it suggesting you kill yourself because you may not get 6" of snow again until the year 2028.

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs probably a hair flatter 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs probably a hair flatter 

Ya not going to be much of a change.. looks great for tomorrow here though

[dryslot]

18z GFS looks worse then 12z.

[SouthCoastMA]

Looked a good deal worse

[CoastalWx]

Yep poo poo

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Ya not going to be much of a change.. looks great for tomorrow here though

Fuck tomorrow 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Kev on pulling something out of his ass. Brown here.

[SouthCoastMA]

AIGFS ticked a bit worse too, though still decent. 

[dryslot]

Tomorrow looks good.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

AIGFS ticked a bit worse too, though still decent. 

It’s caving. I need to take a break. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Tomorrow looks good.

Yup