First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a mild possibility that Tolland is smack in the middle of the pack-less zone. Like draw a 20-30 mile oval around Tolland. 

Yes I know . Thanks 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

2” of QPF on that prog back to Litchfield county. That was a pretty high stakes miss by the euro even though by 2015 standards, the distance miss wasn’t speculator. 

[cut]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

On to football 

Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, cut said:

Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts?

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2” of QPF on that prog back to Litchfield county. That was a pretty high stakes miss by the euro even though by 2015 standards, the distance miss wasn’t speculator. 

The Philly area got the worst of it. Forecasted by NWS to get 8 to 12. Ended up with 0.

[cut]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 

I nailed all the games in round 1 so (6 points to 1 point) so I have 21 points and have a little wiggle room. Just don't want to blow my 4 pointer this week.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 

 

I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved.

[cut]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits. 

Plus the QB 'injury' for SEA

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, cut said:

Who we like in the games? I need to get my pool in tomorrow morning. I am thinking SEA, NE, BUFF, LAR. Thoughts? I need to bet 4 points on my most confident and 1 on my least. That list is my favorite (4) to least favorite (1). Thoughts?

SEA,NE,BUF, CHI

[cut]

Just now, weathafella said:

SEA,NE,BUF, CHI

I'd gt my 4,3,and 2 points that way - I take.

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Keep an eye on the Navgem, that holds the key.

i can't find that anymore, isn't it discontinued?

[Damage In Tolland]

When I have to hang hat on BOX to get me any snow this weekend it’s pretty freaking sad . But it’s all we’ve got 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i can't find that anymore, isn't it discontinued?

No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think

what's navgem show for tomorrow and sunday?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's navgem show for tomorrow and sunday?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There will be snow pack across all of E MA and W CT and an ugly brown area from say BDR up to or just SE of ORH. I am sick to my stomach 

Don’t forgot the cold suppression possibly next week. 
 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS looked better too. Gets 1-2” from about Ginxy up to BOS. Gonna need another bump NW for real snow though. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We will never forget or forgive…

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t forgot the cold suppression possibly next week. 
 

This weekend is going to really hurt . I’ll need to stay away from the board 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This weekend is going to really hurt . I’ll need to stay away from the board 

Dude if I can be on here after all your power tools rammed into my behind you can too. Christ. 
You still could get snow tomorrow and perhaps Sunday night. 

[Supernovice]

Call me crazy but if this doesn’t work out and the AI models don’t verify… wouldn’t this be a point for @Typhoon Tip? Hear me out.

The AI models are looking at historical data vs current at initialization and running it through (it’s not learning despite what people think), at a very basic level. So 20, 30, yrs ago- whatever, given current ingredients we would be looking at a plowable snow. But fast flow, gradient etc… it ends up weak ( that has been the theme for yrs) and east.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude if I can be on here after all your power tools rammed into my behind you can too. Christ. 
You still could get snow tomorrow and perhaps Sunday night. 

The writings on the wall. I started sensing it this morning and then Will just cemented it . 
 

Something about MLK and snow here. They don’t mix 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The writings on the wall. I started sensing it this morning and then Will just cemented it . 
 

Something about MLK and snow here. They don’t mix 

You always do this and then pull something out of your ass.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You always do this and then pull something out of your ass.

Normally I’m hype and positive. I feel neither as of now . Honestly . Going into this as depressed as can be. Good luck out east 

[CoastalWx]

 I salute you. 

[eduggs]

A theory to explain the AI vs GFS/ECMWF battle could be the latent heat release - wave development feedback loop that Eric Webb mentioned a day or two ago. Shortwaves that tap Gulf moisture are susceptible to this effect. If this is biasing the global models too flat aloft, it could explain why the AIs are further west since they can bias-correct based on historical outcomes.

[RDRY]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 9
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western
  Massachusetts, eastern New York, and southern Vermont.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

A theory to explain the AI vs GFS/ECMWF battle could be the latent heat release - wave development feedback loop that Eric Webb mentioned a day or two ago. Shortwaves that tap Gulf moisture are susceptible to this effect. If this is biasing the global models too flat aloft, it could explain why the AIs are further west since they can bias-correct based on historical outcomes.

Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct

I'm not sure what you mean. I'm interested - fascinated really - why the AI models have been consistently west of their parent models for the past few days. I have not seen that behavior consistently or persistently earlier this season. And I offered one potential explanation for this specific situation. I reflexively tend to think the least snowy model will be correct, even if that's not scientifically sound.

[rcostell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

The Philly area got the worst of it. Forecasted by NWS to get 8 to 12. Ended up with 0.

I recall the abject bewilderment.