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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us


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I don’t know if I should be bothering but… The last couple runs of the RGEM have been interesting.  Right around hour 72 give or take.

Looks like there’s a low chasing convection out there with an elongation west in a smeared the pressure pattern. Granted, not excessively deep overal.  Meanwhile, tracing the QPF pattern layout that looks like a CCB over SNE properso it’s almost like the model is seeing two different circumstance simultaneously.   Hmm

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Just catching up...

Holy AI GFS... 6z-12z-18z-0z today have been steady ticks to increase QPF in SNE... at H5 looks like it progressively downplays the lagging vorticity that shears out off the southeast coast. We get better tilt of the trough by 0z Monday.

Will be a memorable GFS vs. AIGFS showdown. Can we rely on the age-old RGEM+AIGFS combo?

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