First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

thread of doom and despair

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. 
 

Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, time to step away for a while.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why didn’t we start a thread to track Saturday’s interior coating? Kevin is all about it.

Most of us inland will be thrilled with 1-3” Saturday night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. 
 

Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two. 

Yea, no one expects a blizzard.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. 
 

Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two. 

Hopefully Tyler Loop isn't kicking 

[jbenedet]

The EC-AIFS is actually on board with this one. I think Boston to SE MA still very much should watch for heaviest snowfall of the season. A very low bar(I know)…

12z GFS is super amped but at least evolution is similar. This is key difference from the 16th where GFS had no other support at similar lead time.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Ride the AIs

[brooklynwx99]

the AIFS-EPS is wetter, so that's nice. vort digs more

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ride the AIs

 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the AIFS-EPS is wetter, so that's nice. vort digs more

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps. 

[jbenedet]

Not best company but 12z CMC also has similar evolution. 
 

This threat is legit.

[CoastalWx]

For once can something work out. Is 3-6” that much to ask. FFS. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Look at euro snow output through day 12 for some comedic relief 

[dryslot]

Lets fire up a bitching and whining thread, Oh wait, We already have 4 others.

[dryslot]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That n/s is def more of a kicker on the euro versus gfs. big differences too with that srn stream shortwave and how it evolves across the southeast. Was hoping to see something more positive here

Cue the euro burying the energy SW.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is a bit better than the OP….which isn’t a high bar obviously…but I’d rather that than the other way around. 1-2” for far SE areas it looks like while the OP was a complete whiff even for the cape. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. 
 

Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two. 

 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps. 

I’m not buying much stock yet, but I really do like the AI being on board for something. Agree that in a world where the op GFS/Euro are the goalposts, a compromise would work out well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not best company but 12z CMC also has similar evolution. 
 

This threat is legit.

I stand with the pope.

[The 4 Seasons]

There's still a ways to go with this, we're not even sub 100hrs yet. 

It's a threat worth watching and discussing.  No need to live and die by every model, every cycle and every run.

That said I still think this has a way better chance and likelihood than the 1/15-16 threat that had zero support outside of some GFS op runs.

For those creaming over the 12Z GFS just prepare yourself for the 18Z to come to reality a bit. 

[mreaves]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

 

39 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Breathe

 

[mahk_webstah]

Today is Wednesday and the storm is Sunday Monday right?  So if we step back from the extremes and the overreactions to one run, then isn’t the modeling telling us that this set up has high ceiling potential. And it’s trending slowly better across the suite of models. That just means that the chance a significant snowstorm for at least some of us is increasing a bit.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

There's still a ways to go with this, we're not even sub 100hrs yet. 

It's a threat worth watching and discussing.  No need to live and die by every model, every cycle and every run.

That said I still think this has a way better chance and likelihood than the 1/15-16 threat that had zero support outside of some GFS op runs.

For those creaming over the 12Z GFS just prepare yourself for the 18Z to come to reality a bit. 

I do like the mean trough position on this look. We have two shortwaves and the kicker might be key here…we want it to dig to help raise the heights ahead of the first one. It will have some destructive interference, but a little bit of that is okay otherwise we’d be trying to rip this north into the Hudson valley. 
 

 

You can see all that vort energy string out ahead of the storm over New England on the op euro which is a problem…it’s preventing downstream ridging to allow this storm to gain latitude 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do like the mean trough position on this look. We have two shortwaves and the kicker might be key here…we want it to dig to help raise the heights ahead of the first one. It will have some destructive interference, but a little bit of that is okay otherwise we’d be trying to rip this north into the Hudson valley. 
 

 

You can see all that vort energy string out ahead of the storm over New England on the op euro which is a problem…it’s preventing downstream ridging to allow this storm to gain latitude 

Scooter shit streak. 

[The 4 Seasons]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never saw the problem before, which is the point that is apparently lost on you.

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@The 4 Seasons@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Not to clutter the thread, but I honestly didn't even mean to exclude CT in the sentiment expressed in that title.....truth is, I'm often rushed maintaining that blog with a full-time, part-time job and 4 little kids.

I just wanted to say one thing real quick. There is no problem. I just made an off hand - objective - comment in the beginning of this thread it wasn't antagonistic or anything, saying many got a first snowstorm already (and i include some of MA in that as 3-6" is pretty solid) and Methuen is still waiting. When you said EASTERNMASS weather, i just responded in kind joshing back with all caps. There was no hostility or ill will whatsoever. And the title can be whatever, please let's not qualify every single title with except for and not limited to or whatever. Its nbd. 

It's all good - trust me.

I, as well, do not want to clutter up this thread and make it a dumpster fire like the last one, so let me just contribute this. Will was talking about the AI models, while they shouldn't be used soley or trusted, having them on board this time and at least trending better is a green(er) flag. Here's the last 4-5 cycles of the EC AI and GFS AI.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

 

It’s been more like this lately. That’s me the lead singer as the euro rolled out. I think I see Garth too.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Scooter shit streak. 

why is it always the scooter shit streak

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Scooter shit streak. 

There on all guidance but particularly noticeable on euro. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Same with the GEFS, with a slightly better look than EPS with the more DS S/W tilted a bit more negative, it has been trending better. Though the GFS/GEFS/GFS AI/GEFS AI have been the most on board with this system thus far. 

The member spread is consolidating a lot, though the mean snow hasnt really gone up, theres just a lot more near-misses or slight misses in there now. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wonder if this morphs into a stronger storm Saturday night with that one being the main event while MLK just shears out. 

[CoastalWx]

Anyways, I don’t mean to get emotional. I’m just so beyond frustrated. I could use something like what the GFS had personally and it’s just like every time I get hit by a sledgehammer. It’s just at this point exhausting.

[CoastalWx]

But honestly, a nice high-end advisory, low end warning would go a long way.